Keeler Johnson's picks and plays March 2

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, March 2 at Fair Grounds and Turfway Park, along with a horse to key on top in Turfway’s $19,588 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Turfway Park $2,500 Thursday Leaderboard Contest: Place $10+ win wagers at Turfway Park on Thursdays from Jan. 5 through March 30 to earn points and compete for your share of a $2,500 weekly jackpot.

Picks and Plays

Fair Grounds: Race 6: $80,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (one mile and 70 yards, 4:45 p.m. ET)

#5 Zozos (6-5) misfired against tougher competition in the Louisiana (G3) at Fair Grounds last month, finishing fifth as the favorite. But the four-year-old Brad Cox trainee boasts a strong overall record at Fair Grounds. Two starts back he crushed a $50,000 allowance optional claimer by 2 3/4 lengths, and last year he broke his maiden at Fair Grounds and ran second in the Louisiana Derby (G2) behind future champion Epicenter.

Cox has been on fire at Fair Grounds this meet, winning at a 39% rate, and hot jockey Corey Lanerie (a 20% winner at Fair Grounds) retains the mount. All signs suggest Zozos is ready to rebound at a short price, with #6 Mailman Money (2-1) a logical choice to complete the exacta.

Selections

• #5 Zozos (6-5)
• #6 Mailman Money (2-1)
• #1 Cash Logistics (5-1)

Wagers

• $25 Exacta: 5 with 6

Turfway Park: Race 4: $5,000 Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 7:25 p.m. ET)

#9 Loma Vista (1-1) appears poised for victory while descending to the $5,000 claiming level. The Mike Maker trainee has finished second in each of his last two starts against $15,000 claiming competition at Turfway, beaten only by next-out winners.

Loma Vista brings a bevy of competitive Brisnet Speed ratings to the table. Whereas none of his Thursday rivals have posted a number higher than 72 in their last three starts, Loma Vista’s last 10 numbers are 74, 75, 82, 74, 84, 84, 81, 76, 70, and 78. A typical performance from Loma Vista should be sufficient to win first prize under high-percentage jockey Gerardo Corrales, a 21% winner at Turfway since Nov. 30.

Let’s single Loma Vista to start a double wager using Pancake House and Gamer in Race 5 (see below) to round out the ticket. Then we’ll key Loma Vista over longshot #4 Jersey Gold (15-1) in a small exacta.

Selections

• #9 Loma Vista (1-1)
• #4 Jersey Gold (15-1)
• #3 Arlyne’s Crown (3-1)

Wagers

• $15 Double: 9 with 7, 10 ($30)
• $5 Exacta: 9 with 4
  Total: $35

Turfway Park: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on Tapeta, 7:55 p.m. ET)

#7 Pancake House (7-2) hasn’t missed the trifecta in three starts over the Turfway Park Tapeta. Most recently, the four-year-old gelding rallied from a couple lengths off the pace to finish second by a head over this track and class level.

Pancake House is a logical choice to take home top honors, though he may face a stiff challenge from #10 Gamer (3-1), who finished second in his Feb. 11 debut sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs against maiden special weight competition at Turfway. The son of Twirling Candy boasts the pedigree to stretch out over one mile and has every chance to win his second career start.

Let’s box Pancake House and Gamer in a large exacta.

Selections

• #7 Pancake House (7-2)
• #10 Gamer (3-1)
• #9 The Thunderer (8-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: box 7, 10 ($30)

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park, Race 8: $19,588 Super High 5 carryover (9:25 p.m. ET)

It’s been a while since anyone managed to assemble a winning ticket in the $1 Super High 5 at Turfway Park. The wager was last hit on Feb. 18, and four racing days have since come and gone without anyone solving the Super High 5.

As a result, the non-jackpot carryover has climbed to a hefty $19,588 for Thursday’s card, the first racing day of an action-packed Turfway week culminating with Saturday’s $150,000 John Battaglia Memorial S. and $150,000 Cincinnati Trophy S.

Thursday’s Super High 5 is available to play in Race 8, a maiden special weight for three-year-old fillies sprinting six furlongs on Tapeta. We won’t recommend specific tickets since race-day changes haven’t yet been posted, and #13 Midnight Meghan (4-1)—a logical contender and the third choice on the morning line—is one of two also-eligible entrants in the 14-horse field. Until we know whether a scratch allows Midnight Meghan to compete, it’s difficult to assemble sound betting strategies.

However, we can recommend keying #2 Daring Do (8-5) on top in the Super High 5 regardless of whether Midnight Meghan draws in. The daughter of four-time leading North American sire Into Mischief brings promising form to the table and looks tough to beat.

Daring Do debuted in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight on Jan. 18 at Turfway and ran gamely in defeat. The Wesley Ward trainee carved out stiff fractions of :22.26 and :44.69 and led by 2 1/2 lengths with a furlong remaining, only to falter late and settle for third place. The deep-closing runner-up Lady Lowery returned to win her next start, flattering the form of the race.

Even in defeat, Daring Do earned a flashy 84 Brisnet Speed rating that is higher than the par winning number (80) for Thursday’s conditions. Cutting back from 6 1/2 furlongs to six furlongs should only help Daring Do’s chances, and it’s encouraging to note she’ll be ridden by hot apprentice jockey Walter Rodriguez, who has gone 5-for-7 (71%) teaming up with Ward over the last two weeks.

Throw in the fact Ward has gone 21-for-55 (38%) at Turfway since Nov. 30, and Daring Do is a formidable favorite worth building tickets around.

Good luck!