Keeler Johnson's picks and plays March 23

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, March 23 at Fair Grounds and Turfway Park, including tickets for Turfway’s $4,512 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Turfway Park $2,500 Thursday Leaderboard Contest: Place $10+ win wagers at Turfway Park on Thursdays from Jan. 5 through March 30 to earn points and compete for your share of a $2,500 weekly jackpot.

Picks and Plays

Fair Grounds: Race 8: $50,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs, 5:45 p.m. ET)

Triple Crown nominee #1 Woodythebidspotter (4-1) ran well in his Dec. 26 debut sprinting six furlongs against maiden special weight competition at Fair Grounds, gaining a lot of ground from behind a hot pace to finish second by one length.

Woodythebidspotter subsequently faltered to finish 10th in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight over the same track. Cutting back to six furlongs and dropping down to the $50,000 maiden claiming level can trigger a rebound, considering red-hot trainer Brad Cox wins at a 31% rate with horses making this class drop.

At 4-1, a win bet on Woodythebidspotter is in order. We’ll also bet him over #5 Free Rambling Man (7-2) and #11 Oddsontony (6-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #1 Woodythebidspotter (4-1)
• #5 Free Rambling Man (7-2)
• #11 Oddsontony (6-1)

Wagers

• $20 win: #1 Woodythebidspotter
• $5 exacta: 1 with 5, 11 ($10)
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 1: $15,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 5:55 p.m. ET)

#2 In Lieu (8-5) hasn’t missed the trifecta in three starts sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Turfway Park. Two starts back, he closed fast to finish second by a nose in a $15,000 maiden claimer. Last time out, he settled for second place by two lengths in a $30,000 maiden claimer.

Returning to the $15,000 level should help In Lieu visit the winner’s circle. Stretching out over one mile can help as well, since In Lieu has the pedigree to handle the longer distance.

We’ll bet In Lieu to win and key him over #8 San Marco City (7-2) and #3 Connect Me (5-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #2 In Lieu (8-5)
• #8 San Marco City (7-2)
• #3 Connect Me (5-1)

Wagers

• $16 win: #2 In Lieu
• $7 exacta: 2 with 3, 8 ($14)
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 7: $50,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 8:55 p.m. ET)

#3 Nobals (5-2) is 2-for-2 at Turfway Park, wiring the 6 1/2-furlong Turfway Prevue S. and the six-furlong Animal Kingdom S. over this track last year. He hasn’t run since August, but trainer Larry Rivelli wins at a powerful 37% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, so Nobals is eligible to fire a strong shot in his return to action.

His key rival is #8 Night Time (2-1), whose Turfway exploits this winter include a half-length third in the 6 1/2-furlong Forego S. and a neck second in the Big Daddy S. He has the Brisnet Speed ratings to give Nobals a fight for top honors.

Let’s box Nobals and Night Time in a large exacta.

Selections

• #3 Nobals (5-2)
• #8 Night Time (2-1)
• #5 Bakers Bay (7-2)

Wagers

• $15 exacta: box 3,8 ($30)

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park, Race 8: $4,512 Super High 5 carryover (9:25 p.m. ET)

There are 95,040 possible outcomes in Thursday’s $1 Super High 5 at Turfway Park, which is available to play in the eighth and final race of the evening. And barring a dead heat, only one outcome will allow bettors to cash a share of the $4,512 carryover.

Race 8 is a $15,000 maiden claimer taking place over six furlongs on Tapeta, and with a dozen entries in the mix, constructing a winning Super High 5 ticket won’t be easy. But we’ll give it our best shot.

The best horse to build ticket around is probably #6 Roan for the Rose (5-2). He’s finished second in his last three starts sprinting at Turfway, including a couple of neck defeats in $15,000 maiden claimers. He posted a career-best 78 Brisnet Speed rating when making his first start for trainer Kenneth Miller on March 11, and a repeat of that performance may prove sufficient to land him in the winner’s circle.

For the minor awards, we have to support #8 Bodieful (10-1). The four-year-old filly has finished fifth, third, third, and second in four starts sprinting against $15,000 maiden claiming competition at Turfway. She ran particularly well in her latest effort, dueling for the lead before staying on to finish second in a 12-horse field. She’s squaring off against male rivals on Thursday, but has the Brisnet Speed ratings to challenge for a top-five finish.

#2 Agile Dancer (8-1) is another key contender. True, he faded after setting the pace in a $15,000 maiden claimer racing one mile at Turfway last month, finishing seventh. But two starts back, Agile Dancer was beaten only 4 1/2 lengths in a $30,000 maiden claimer sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Turfway, even after enduring a bad start. A clean trip sprinting six furlongs at the $15,000 level sounds like a recipe for a top-five finish.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• $1 Super High 5: 6 with 2, 8 with 2, 8 with 3, 5, 7 with 3, 5, 7 ($12)
• $1 Super High 5: 6 with 2, 8 with 3, 5, 7 with 2, 8 with 3, 5, 7 ($12)
• $1 Super High 5: 6 with 2, 8 with 3, 5, 7 with 3, 5, 7 with 2, 8 ($12)
• $1 Super High 5: 6 with 3, 5, 7 with 2, 8 with 2, 8 with 3, 5, 7 ($12)
• $1 Super High 5: 6 with 3, 5, 7 with 2, 8 with 3, 5, 7 with 2, 8 ($12)
• $1 Super High 5: 6 with 3, 5, 7 with 3, 5, 7 with 2, 8 with 2, 8 ($12)
  Total: $72

Good luck!