Keeler Johnson's picks and plays March 24

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, March 24 at Aqueduct, Fair Grounds, and Turfway Park, including a horse to single in the $1,832 Pick 6 carryover at Fair Grounds.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Hoosier Park $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in any eligible race at Hoosier Park on Friday and Saturday.
• Australian Autumn Racing Carnival: Place $10+ win bets at a selected Australian racetrack every Friday from March 17 through April 7 to earn points and win a trip to the 2023 The Everest in Australia.

Picks and Plays

Aqueduct: Race 1: $40,000 Claiming (six furlongs, 1:20 p.m. ET)

#2 Gagetown (9-5) won the 2021 Prairie Mile S. and placed in four other stakes over the course of 2020-21. His form has slipped in recent months (he’s lost four straight allowance optional claimers at Laurel and Aqueduct), but dropping into a $40,000 claimer can trigger a turnaround. Gagetown’s last five Brisnet Speed ratings are all in the 90-92 range, so he’s fast enough to win on the class drop.

We’ll bet Gagetown to win and key him over #5 Twenty Four Mamba (6-1) and #6 Money Mike (8-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #2 Gagetown (9-5)
• #5 Twenty Four Mamba (6-1)
• #6 Money Mike (8-1)

Wagers

• $16 to win on #2 Gagetown
• $7 Exacta: 2 with 5,6 ($14)
  Total: $30

Fair Grounds: Race 1: $10,000 Starter Optional Claiming (six furlongs, 2:15 p.m. ET)

#3 Beverly Park (5-2) won 15 out of 30 starts during an abundantly productive 2022 campaign. He’s lost his last two starts, but there are extenuating circumstances. He may have struggled over the bullring oval at Delta Downs when finishing sixth in a $15,000 starter optional claimer, and he ran into traffic trouble before rallying to finish third in an $8,000 starter allowance at Parx.

If Beverly Park gets a clean trip at Fair Grounds (where he’s 1-for-1), he can bounce back to the winner’s circle over #1 High Cruise (8-5) and #4 Optimal Courage (9-2)

Selections

• #3 Beverly Park (5-2)
• #1 High Cruise (8-5)
• #4 Optimal Courage (9-2)

Wagers

• $16 to win on #3 Beverly Park
• $7 Exacta: 3 with 1,4 ($14)
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 5: $7,500 Maiden Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 7:55 p.m. ET)

#7 Scattershack (4-1) struggled in his last three starts, but all of those came on dirt, and he’s been freshened since July. The son of Shackleford cracked the trifecta in a couple of maiden special weights at Turfway Park in 2021-22 and figures to improve while returning to Tapeta and dropping in class.

Let’s bet Scattershack to win and key him over #5 Dormir (6-1) and #11 Polsar (7-2) in the exacta. Dormir just missed in his last two starts against $7,500 and $5,000 maiden claiming competition at Turfway, while Polsar is squaring off against easier company after running fourth in a $15,000 maiden claimer at Turfway last month.

Selections

• #7 Scattershack (4-1)
• #11 Polsar (7-2)
• #5 Dormir (6-1)

Wagers

• $18 to win on #7 Scattershack
• $6 Exacta: 7 with 5,11 ($12)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Fair Grounds, Race 5: $1,832 Pick 6 carryover (4:15 p.m. ET)

Planning to chase Friday’s $1,832 Pick 6 carryover at Fair Grounds? Then you had best come prepared for a stiff handicapping challenge. The six-race sequence for the $1 wager contains 56 horses (averaging 9.3 per race) before scratches, and there are 528,528 possible outcomes.

If you’re looking for a single to build tickets around, you may find the perfect possibility in Race 6, a $30,000 maiden claimer for three-year-old fillies sprinting six furlongs on dirt. With eight entries in the mix, it’s a valuable race in which to seek a single; using only one horse for Pick 6 purposes will reduce the number of Pick 6 outcomes to consider from 528,528 down to 66,066. That’s still a big number, but far more manageable.

There are a couple of first-time starters in the Race 6 entries, but their trainers win less than 10% of the time with horses debuting in maiden claimers, and neither horse has compiled a particularly flashy work tab. This suggests one of the experienced runners will prevail in Race 6, and among those, #2 Malibu Toast (2-1) is shaping up as a standout.

Malibu Toast cracked the trifecta in a trio of maiden special weights on the Kentucky circuit last fall, earning Brisnet Speed ratings of 74, 82, and 81. On two occasions she missed victory by half a length or less.

Racing in maiden special weights at Oaklawn Park this winter hasn’t been as productive for Malibu Toast. She faded from a pace-tracking position to finish sixth on Dec. 31, then faded again to finish eighth on Feb. 25, with her Brisnet Speed ratings trending downward to 77 and 61.

Shipping away from Oaklawn and dropping into a $30,000 maiden claimer might be all Malibu Toast needs to visit the winner’s circle, since red-hot trainer Brad Cox (a 41% winner at Fair Grounds this meet) strikes at a 31% rate with horses transitioning from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company. Throw in hot jockey Florent Geroux (a 33% winner at Fair Grounds this meet), and Malibu Toast looks like a viable Pick 6 single.

Good luck!