Keeler Johnson's picks and plays May 1

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Monday, May 1 at Will Rogers Downs and Turf Paradise, including a pair of win bets capitalizing on the $10 Money Back Mondays promotion.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• $10 Money Back Mondays: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in any eligible race at Will Rogers Downs or Parx Racing, every Monday from April 3 through May 15.

Picks and Plays

Will Rogers Downs: Race 5: Allowance (six furlongs, 4:05 p.m. ET)

At first glance, the racing record of #6 Salado (7-5) might appear inconsistent, with Brisnet Speed ratings going up and down and up again. But the drops coincide with his turf starts, and the rises with his dirt runs. Whereas Salado’s last five numbers on turf are 72, 76, 73, 76, and 72, his last five dirt races have yielded much stronger Brisnet Speed ratings of 89, 83, 87, 82, and 91, the latter earned when wiring a $5,000 claimer at Sam Houston one month ago.

Salado is an obvious choice to take home top honors in his first start for hot trainer Scott Young, a 26% winner at Will Rogers Downs this meet. We’ll place a $10 win bet on Salado (capitalizing on the $10 Money Back Mondays promotion), then single him to start a large double wager.

Selections

• #6 Salado (7-5)
• #2 Brother Aaron (2-1)
• #1 Electoral (4-1)

Wagers

• $10 to win on #6 Salado
• $30 Double: 6 with 2
  Total: $40

Will Rogers Downs: Race 6: $5,000 Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs, 4:35 p.m. ET)

#2 Nostalgia (9-5) misfired in a recent $17,500-$15,000 claimer at Will Rogers Downs, finishing last in a field of four. But she’d previously won a $7,500 claimer and finished second in a $7,500 starter optional claimer, earning sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 72 and 78. Dropping down to the $5,000 claiming level can trigger a rebound.

We’ll single Nostalgia to conclude our double wager, then place a $10 win bet to take advantage of the $10 Money Back Mondays promotion.

Selections

• #2 Nostalgia (9-5)
• #4 Peppermint Sister (7-2)
• #3 Sailsinthesunset (4-1)

Wagers

• $10 to win on #2 Nostalgia

Turf Paradise: Race 4: $8,500 Maiden Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs, 5:52 p.m. ET)

#2 Full Spirit (4-1) has a shot to win on debut for hot trainer Kory Owens, a 37% winner at Turf Paradise this meet and a 25% winner with first-time starters. Full Spirit is a daughter of Grade 1-winning juvenile Mor Spirit (who sires 13% winners from first-time starters) out of Pocketful, previously the dam of early-maturing Arizona Breeders’ Futurity winner Keyson.

Full Spirit is worth betting to win and keying over logical favorites #1 Mischief Mame (5-2) and #5 Ize Smiling (9-2) in the exacta.

Selections

• #2 Full Spirit (4-1)
• #1 Mischief Mame (5-2)
• #5 Ize Smiling (9-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #2 Full Spirit
• $5 Exacta: 2 with 1,5 ($10)
  Total: $30

Good luck!