Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Nov. 2

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, Nov. 2 at Delaware Park and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with tickets for the $5,142 Super High 5 carryover at Churchill Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Churchill Downs $2,000 Late Pick 4 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 4 at Churchill Downs on any of three days (Oct. 30, Nov. 2, and Nov. 3) to split a $2,000 daily jackpot.
• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in eligible races at Flemington (Australia) or Happy Valley (Hong Kong).

Picks and Plays

Delaware Park: Race 1: $25,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs, 12:30 p.m. ET)

#2 Epic Queen (9-5) is dropping in class after competing in a quintet of maiden special weights. Her last two runs have come on grass, but Epic Queen has cracked the trifecta in two of her three dirt starts, earning solid Brisnet Speed ratings along the way.

Tactical speed is a strong suit for Epic Queen, so she’ll have every chance to shake loose on an uncontested lead under apprentice jockey Madeline Rowland, who rides with a five-pound weight allowance. From there, Epic Queen can cruise home on top of #5 Seekingarrangement (5-2), who has cracked the trifecta in her first two starts over this track, distance, and class level.

A cold exacta is the bet we’ll play.

• $25 Exacta: 2 with 5

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles, 3:12 p.m. ET)

#1 Jolly Tommy (2-1) has cracked the trifecta in each of his last four starts, including a neck defeat in a one-mile maiden special weight at Horseshoe Indianapolis last month. But with a 7-0-2-2 lifetime record, Jolly Tommy has shown a tendency to settle for minor awards rather than vie for victory.

Let’s try to beat Jolly Tommy with the first-time starter #5 Bartulia (8-5), who hails from the barn of two-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Brad Cox. Bartulia enters off a sharp series of workouts at Ellis Park (five of his last six works have been bullets), and Cox wins at a lofty 23% rate with horses debuting over one mile or farther.

• $25 Exacta: 5 with 1

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 5:17 p.m. ET)

#6 Kate’s Concerto (5-2) wasn’t badly beaten in her debut sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs over the European-style turf course at Kentucky Downs, rallying to finish fourth by 3 3/4 lengths. The winner came back to prevail in the Matron S. (G3), and the runner-up broke her maiden next time out, so it’s safe to say Kate’s Concerto squared off against quality rivals.

Kate’s Concerto should find the competition a bit easier at Horseshoe Indianapolis, where she’ll race on Lasix for the first time. Trainer Brad Cox wins at a 28% rate with second-time starters, and at a 37% rate with horses running on Lasix for the first time, so there are a couple of high-percentage stats in Kate’s Concerto’s corner. It’s also encouraging to note Kate’s Concerto is a half-sibling to three horses who won stakes on dirt.

We’ll bet Kate’s Concerto to win and key her over #3 Fee (3-1) and #5 Mischievous Doll (6-1) in the exacta.

• $14 to win on #6 Kate’s Concerto
• $8 Exacta: 6 with 3,5 ($16)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Churchill Downs, Race 10: $5,142 Super High 5 carryover (5:35 p.m. ET)

The second card of the Churchill Downs fall meet is the first to feature a carryover, with a $5,142 prize pool up for grabs in the $1 Super High 5.

As usual, the Super High 5 is available to bet in the final race of the day. On Wednesday, that’s Race 10, a $50,000 maiden claimer for two-year-old fillies sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs on dirt. A field of 10 has been entered, which means we have 30,240 possible outcomes to consider.

The slim morning line favorite is #9 Divisibility (3-1), and her credentials look solid. The daughter of Maclean’s Music debuted in a six-furlong sprint over this class level at Keeneland last month and ran well in defeat, dueling for the lead through solid fractions of :22.54 and :46.85 before weakening to finish second by 6 3/4 lengths.

This effort produced a competitive 67 Brisnet Speed rating, one of the better figures in Wednesday’s field. Breaking from an outside post under jockey Tyler Gaffalione (Churchill’s leading jockey since 2020), Divisibility figures to sit a perfect trip tracking #3 Girl Afraid (7-2) before pouncing to victory.

Speaking of Girl Afraid, she’s the second choice on the morning line and a logical contender to use underneath Divisibility. Girl Afraid hasn’t missed the top five in seven career starts, and she’s cracked the trifecta on five occasions. She exits a pair of top-three finishes against maiden special weight company over the Tapeta track at Presque Isle Downs, but Girl Afraid has also run well on dirt and has the pacesetting speed to be a factor from the outset at Churchill Downs.

#2 Unkept Secret (4-1) is jumping up in class after finishing second in her debut for a $30,000 maiden claiming tag at Churchill, but the daughter of Secret Circle was only beaten 1 1/4 lengths and earned a promising 69 Brisnet Speed rating in the process. She looks like a good fit for Wednesday’s field.

#1 Homecoming Queen (4-1) has yet to race, but she breezed a quick half-mile from the Keeneland starting gate in :47 4/5 last month, and trainer Rodolphe Brisset wins at a solid 18% rate with horses debuting in maiden claimers. Don’t be surprised if Homecoming Queen factors for a top-five finish.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• $1 Super High 5: 9 with 1,2,3 with 1,2,3 with 1,2,3 with 5,8,10 ($18)
• $1 Super High 5: 9 with 1,2,3 with 1,2,3 with 5,8,10 with 1,2,3 ($18)
• $1 Super High 5: 9 with 1,2,3 with 5,8,10 with 1,2,3 with 1,2,3 ($18)
• $1 Super High 5: 9 with 5,8,10 with 1,2,3 with 1,2,3 with 1,2,3 ($18)
  Total: $72

Good luck!