Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Nov. 3

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares $75 worth of picks and plays for Thursday, Nov. 3 at Churchill Downs and Horseshoe Indianapolis, including a trio of cold exactas.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Churchill Downs $2,000 Late Pick 4 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 4 at Churchill Downs on any of three days (Oct. 30, Nov. 2, and Nov. 3) to split a $2,000 daily jackpot.

Picks and Plays

Churchill Downs: Race 1: $30,000 Claiming (six furlongs, 1:00 p.m. ET)

#5 My Tommy Lee (15-1) misfired in a turf allowance at Keeneland last month, but the four-year-old filly had previously placed in a pair of dirt allowances at Belterra Park, earning solid Brisnet Speed ratings of 76 and 77.

Aside from morning line favorite #1 Domitia Lucilla (9-5), who posted an 85 Brisnet Speed rating when nabbing a $20,000 maiden claimer at Keeneland last month, My Tommy Lee fits well from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective against this compact field. And since Domitia Lucilla had previously been posting Brisnet Speed ratings in the 67-77 range (and is stepping up against tougher competition today), who’s to say My Tommy Lee can’t spring a surprise at 15-1?

A win bet on My Tommy Lee will be our first order of business, followed by an exacta using Domitia Lucilla for second place.

• $15 to win on #5 My Tommy Lee
• $5 Exacta: 5 with 1
  Total: $20

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 3: Allowance (six furlongs, 3:11 p.m. ET)

#6 Express Lady (8-5) hasn’t missed the trifecta in her last five dirt sprint starts at Horseshoe Indianapolis, cracking the exacta four times. But in a recent six-furlong dash over this class level, Express Lady slipped to third place as #3 Quite Whimsical (5-2) snatched runner-up honors.

Quite Whimsical hasn’t finished out of the top two in her last five dirt sprints at Horseshoe Indianapolis, and she should have every chance to maintain her edge over Express Lady while starting at a higher price on Thursday.

We’ll bet Quite Whimsical over Express Lady in a cold exacta.

• $25 Exacta: 3 with 6

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 5:19 p.m. ET)

#7 Distorted Pro (9-5) ran well in his debut for a $75,000 maiden claiming tag at Churchill Downs, rallying to finish third with a 75 Brisnet Speed rating four points higher than the par winning figure for Thursday’s conditions at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

Distorted Pro is set to race with Lasix for the first time, a lofty 37% winning move for trainer Brad Cox. With leading Horseshoe Indianapolis jockey Marcelino Pedroza in the saddle, Distorted Pro is a logical choice to lead the way home over #3 Natural Harbor (2-1) and #2 Rivoli (7-2).

• $20 Exacta: 7 with 3
• $10 Trifecta: 7 with 3 with 2
  Total: $30

Good luck!