Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Nov. 30

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, Nov. 30 at Turfway Park, along with tickets for the $1,268 Super High 5 carryover at Mountaineer.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in eligible races at Happy Valley (Hong Kong).

Picks and Plays

Turfway Park: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on Tapeta, 7:55 p.m. ET)

#5 Rum Runner Ready (12-1) hasn’t shown much in four starts against maiden special weight company at Churchill Downs and Ellis Park, but those four tries came on dirt and turf. Switching to Tapeta may trigger an improved performance from the daughter of Gun Runner.

Since 2019, trainer William Morey has gone 44-for-154 (29%) at Turfway Park, which includes a 5-for-16 (31%) record during December 2021. When the Turfway racing season gets underway, Morey’s horses are ready to run, so we’ll take a shot betting Rum Runner Ready to win and keying her over #1 Aunt Mischief (10-1) and #6 Botanical (7-2) in the exacta.

Selections

• #5 Rum Runner Ready (12-1)
• #6 Botanical (7-2)
• #1 Aunt Mischief (10-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #5 Rum Runner Ready
• $5 Exacta: 5 with 1,6 ($10)
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/4 miles on Tapeta, 8:25 p.m. ET)

#2 Timo (6-1) has shown promise in four starts on turf, most notably running second in a 1 1/4-mile maiden special weight at Colonial Downs during the summer. On that occasion, Timo closed nicely from behind a slow pace and finished well clear of the third-place runner.

Most recently, Timo rallied through tight quarters to finish fourth in a 1 1/8-mile maiden special weight at Keeneland, beaten two lengths in a race with quick closing fractions. Racing 1 1/4 miles on Tapeta should suit Timo just fine, and it’s encouraging to note he’s trained by Jonathan Thomas, who has gone 13-for-40 (33%) at Turfway since 2020.

#1 Blue Devil (5-2) and #12 Monjid (4-1) are the two we’ll toss into the mix for exacta honors.

Selections

• #2 Timo (6-1)
• #12 Monjid (4-1)
• #1 Blue Devil (5-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win #2 Timo
• $5 Exacta: 2 with 1,12 ($10)
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 7: $25,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta, 8:55 p.m. ET)

Since nabbing a maiden special weight during the spring at Keeneland, #7 Shannon (9-5) has finished second in three consecutive allowances sprinting on turf. Along the way, she’s earned respectable Brisnet Speed ratings of 81, 96, and 81.

Shannon exits a 1 1/4-length defeat dashing 5 1/2 furlongs at Keeneland, an occasion on which she finished a nose clear of third-place finisher #11 Boxing Day (4-1). Perhaps switching to Tapeta is what Shannon needs to get over the hump and secure her elusive second victory.

Boxing Day and the hot Pennsylvania shipper #6 Do You Love Me (12-1) are worth including underneath Shannon in the exacta.

Selections

• #7 Shannon (9-5)
• #11 Boxing Day (4-1)
• #6 Do You Love Me (12-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #7 Shannon
• $7 Exacta: 7 with 11
• $3 Exacta: 7 with 6
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Mountaineer, Race 8: $1,268 Super High 5 carryover (9:55 p.m. ET)

The final race on Wednesday at Mountaineer brings a $1,268 non-jackpot carryover in the Super High 5. If you feel like chasing a share of the prize pool, you had better come prepared for a challenge.

The eighth and final race on the card is a 5 1/2-furlong allowance for horses who have never won two races. A field of 10 has been entered, equating to 30,240 possible outcomes, and splitting the key contenders isn’t easy.

Morning line favorite #5 Pour Me a Double (5-2) is certainly a viable win candidate after finishing second in his last two starts over this track and class level, earning competitive Brisnet Speed ratings of 74 and 78. But many of Pour Me a Double’s rivals have posted similar (or better) Brisnet Speed ratings, and his 1-for-16 lifetime record is a cause for pause—Pour Me a Double hasn’t exactly been a winning machine.

It’s tempting to look at #2 First Crowned (3-1) as an alternative. The three-year-old gelding posted four straight Brisnet Speed ratings in the 76-79 range when competing in a quartet of maiden special weights at Horseshoe Indianapolis, breaking through with a 3 1/2-length victory on Nov. 1. But First Crowned completely misfired in a five-furlong allowance at Churchill Downs last month, racing in last place throughout while struggling to negotiate the turn, so it’s hard to know what type of performance he’ll produce at Mountaineer.

Beyond the favorites, #10 Consider Me (8-1) offers some appeal after winning a $10,000 maiden claimer and finishing second in a $15,000 claimer, both at Mahoning Valley. Trainer Carlos Inirio has been on fire at Mountaineer, compiling a 14-5-5-1 (36%) record this meet, so Consider Me is eligible to factor at a nice price. The same goes for #8 Justinspeightofit (12-1), who finished in a dead-heat for second place with Consider Me in the previously mentioned $15,000 claimer.

#9 Angusonic (12-1) can’t be dismissed either after running third behind a pair of next-out winners over this track, distance, and class level on Oct. 16.

Assembling a viable Super High 5 ticket in a race this competitive isn’t easy, but we’ll give it our best shot:

• $1 Super High 5: 2,5 with 2,5 with 8,9 with 8,9,10 with 3,4,6,7,8,9,10 ($40)
• $1 Super High 5: 2,5 with 8,9 with 2,5 with 8,9,10 with 3,4,6,7,8,9,10 ($40)
  Total: $80

Good luck!