Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Oct. 10

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Monday, Oct. 10 at Presque Isle Downs and Horseshoe Indianapolis, including horses to single in a trio of Pick 5 carryovers.

Picks and Plays

Presque Isle Downs: Race 3: $62,500 Allowance Optional Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 2:24 p.m. ET)

In terms of Brisnet Speed ratings, #4 Motown Mischief (7-5) is the fastest filly in this field, having posted an 85 Brisnet Speed figure when finishing third in the Colleen S. during the summer at Monmouth Park. But Motown Mischief has finished last in her two most recent runs, including a Sept. 15 event over the same track, distance, and class level as Monday’s contest.

Let’s try to beat Motown Mischief with #3 Cheap and Cheerful (4-1), who finished second on Sept. 15 after carving out the pace. That effort produced a 73 Brisnet Speed rating, stamping Cheap and Cheerful as the second-fastest horse in Monday’s field behind Motown Mischief.

A win bet on Cheap and Cheerful will be our first order of business, followed by an exacta using #2 Next Episode (5-1) for second place.

• $25 to win on #3 Cheap and Cheerful
• $5 Exacta: 3 with 2
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 1: Allowance (six furlongs, 2:30 p.m. ET)

#2 Lady Demaree (3-1) ran well in a $50,000 claimer at Churchill Downs last month, dueling for the early lead before weakening to finish third by 3 1/2 lengths. This admirable effort produced an 80 Brisnet Speed rating, pretty much in line with the 81 rating that ranks as the par winning figure for Monday’s conditions.

Lady Demaree may find the competition a bit easier at Horseshoe Indianapolis than Churchill Downs, so we’ll bet her to win and key her over #3 Mi Crescendo (5-2) and #5 Four Dawn (9-5) in the exacta.

• $14 to win on #2 Lady Demaree
• $8 Exacta: 2 with 3,5 ($16)
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 5:05 p.m. ET)

In this maiden special weight for Indiana-bred juveniles, #7 Mylittleredvette (5-1) offers appeal. He finished second in his debut over this track and class level, then came home fourth in a non-state-restricted maiden special weight at Horseshoe Indianapolis, earning a sharp 63 Brisnet Speed rating.

Returning to the Indiana-bred ranks can put Mylittleredvette in the hunt for victory at a nice price. We’ll bet him to win and key him over #5 Not Playin Around (3-1) and #9 Air Marshal (6-1) in the exacta.

• $18 to win on #7 Mylittleredvette
• $6 Exacta: 7 with 5,9 ($12)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Presque Isle Downs, Race 1: $2,452 Pick 5 carryover (1:30 p.m. ET)

The early Pick 5 on Monday at Presque Isle Downs boasts a $2,452 carryover, adding value to the 50-cent wager.

We’ve already outlined our strategy for betting Race 3, the middle leg of the early Pick 5. #4 Motown Mischief (7-5) looks vulnerable as the morning line favorite, and #3 Cheap and Cheerful (4-1) is a logical alternative. In a small six-horse field, Cheap and Cheerful is worth singling at a nice price.

Presque Isle Downs, Race 4: $1,618 Pick 5 carryover (2:51 p.m. ET)

The late Pick 5 at Presque Isle Downs has also tossed up a carryover worth $1,618. The 50-cent wager overlaps with the early Pick 5 in Races 4-5, so if you handicap one, you might as well play the other.

The best chance for a single might come in Race 7, a $62,500 allowance optional claimer for fillies and mares racing one mile and 70 yards. The morning line favorite in a six-horse field is #3 Christmas Diamond (5-2), who has been strong in four starts since transferring to the care of trainer Teresa Connelly.

Indeed, Christmas Diamond has won two of his last four starts, most recently rallying to a narrow victory in the 1 1/16-mile Gem City S. at Presque Isle. That victory produced a flashy 91 Brisnet Speed rating, stamping Christmas Diamond as a logical choice to win right back under Presque Isle’s leading jockey Pablo Morales.

Horseshoe Indianapolis, Race 4: $52,545 Pick 5 carryover (4:03 p.m. ET)

The racing week at Horseshoe Indianapolis kicks off with a hefty $52,545 carryover up for grabs in the 50-cent Pick 5.

The opening leg of the sequence is Race 4, a six-furlong maiden special weight for Indiana-bred juveniles. Nine horses have been entered, but morning line favorite #9 Friday Night Right (9-5) looms as a viable single.

Friday Night Right hasn’t missed the board in three starts over this track and class level, most recently finishing second by a neck against 11 rivals. That effort produced a 63 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest figure in this field.

Friday Night Right has tactical speed and has already beaten the majority of his Monday rivals, so a repeat of his last run should be sufficient to visit the winner’s circle.

Good luck!