Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Oct. 11

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Tuesday, Oct. 11 at Presque Isle Downs and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with tickets for the $868 Super High 5 carryover at Mountaineer.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Trifecta Tuesday: Receive a 15% bonus on trifecta winnings (excluding stake amount; up to $25 per day) on every Tuesday through Nov. 29.

Picks and Plays

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 2:30 p.m. ET)

#4 Koselio (5-2) showed some promise in his debut sprinting six furlongs at Churchill Downs, rallying to finish third by 2 3/4 lengths. His reward was an encouraging 78 Brisnet Speed rating.

Hot trainer Brad Cox (a 23% winner at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet) strikes at a 28% rate with second-time starters, so Koselio is eligible to move forward while facing easier competition at Horseshoe Indianapolis. It’s also worth noting Koselio is racing on Lasix for the first time, a 38% winning move for Cox.

We’ll use #1 Grey Charmer (3-1), #3 C J All the Way (7-2), and #6 Cloud Without Rein (4-1) in a trifecta capitalizing on the Trifecta Tuesday promotion.

• $5 Trifecta: 4 with 1,3,6 with 1,3,6 ($30)

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 2: $5,000 Starter Allowance (six furlongs, 3:01 p.m. ET)

#1 Silver Moon Road (1-1) has been in red-hot form since being claimed by trainer Randy Klopp. The four-year-old gelding has posted three straight gate-to-wire victories at Horseshoe Indianapolis, most recently nabbing a $7,500 starter optional claimer.

Two starts back, Silver Moon Road won a six-furlong, $5,000 starter allowance by 2 3/4 lengths over a next-out winner, so returning to the same distance and class level should suit Silver Moon Road just fine. A fourth consecutive victory is likely in the offing, with #4 Little Mighty Man (7-2) completing the exacta for high-percentage trainer Ralph Martinez.

• $25 Exacta: 1 with 4

Presque Isle Downs: Race 5: $6,250 Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 3:18 p.m. ET)

#7 San Costantino (5-2) recently turned around a lengthy losing skid when tackling a $20,000 claimer for non-winners of two races lifetime at Presque Isle Downs, rallying sharply to win the six-furlong sprint by half a length. That victory triggered a career-best 78 Brisnet Speed rating.

Trainer Timothy Hamm wins at a 30% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder, so San Costantino should be tough to beat while tackling a $6,250 claimer for non-winners of three races.

#4 Free Flayme (5-1), dropping in class out of $10,000 claimers over the Colonial Downs turf course, can complete the exacta.

• $20 to win on #7 San Costantino
• $10 Exacta: 7 with 4
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Mountaineer, Race 8: $868 Super High 5 carryover (9:55 p.m. ET)

A total of 10 fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs over the Mountaineer main track in Tuesday’s eighth race, a $4,000 claimer for non-winners of three races lifetime. Bettors must correctly identify the top five finishers if they wish to win a share of the $868 Super High 5 carryover.

Handicapping Race 8 is made tricky by the fact #4 Musetta (5-1), the field’s fastest entrant from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective, has never won on dirt. In fact, the four-year-old filly has barely run over the surface, making 17 of her 18 starts on turf. Her only dirt start produced a seventh-place finish in her Oct. 4 debut.

But hey, that race was a $25,000-$20,000 maiden claimer at Gulfstream Park West back in October 2020, and Musetta has improved since then. She’s finished on the board in her last two starts against $12,500 claiming company at Monmouth Park, earning sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 70 and 79, so dropping down to the $4,000 level might offset any disdain Musetta has for dirt.

Beyond Musetta, #10 Wedding Chapel (7-2) is a logical and perhaps more reliable contender. The three-year-old filly has been in sharp form at Mountaineer, finishing second by a neck in a $12,500 claimer before scoring by two lengths at the $6,500 level, along the way earning Brisnet Speed ratings of 66 and 64. Hot trainer Juan Silva (a 27% winner at Mountaineer) has gone 4-for-9 (44%) teaming up with jockey Angel Diaz over the last two months, so Wedding Chapel is an obvious contender while tackling the $4,000 claiming ranks.

#9 Missy Lizzy (6-1) has finished first, second, and third in her last three starts against $4,000 company at Mountaineer, earning consistent Brisnet Speed ratings in the 63-66 range. Missy Lizzy is another obvious contender, although she finished behind #8 San Nicola Prancer (8-1) in her latest run. The latter mare isn’t the most consistent horse, but she’s only run twice this season and is eligible to challenge on her best day.

We also have to give a long look to #2 Free to Run (6-1). Since breaking her maiden in a $4,000 maiden claimer, the four-year-old filly has cracked the trifecta in six consecutive $4,000 claimers at Mountaineer.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• $1 Super High 5: 4 with 10 with 8,9 with 2,8,9 with 2,3,5,7,8,9 ($16)
• $1 Super High 5: 4 with 8,9 with 10 with 2,8,9 with 2,3,5,7,8,9 ($16)
• $1 Super High 5: 4 with 10 with 8,9 with 2,3,5,7,8,9 with 2,8,9 ($16)
• $1 Super High 5: 4 with 8,9 with 10 with 2,3,5,7,8,9 with 2,8,9 ($16)
  Total: $64

Good luck!