Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Oct. 12

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, Oct. 12 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Keeneland, including a ticket for Keeneland’s $7,947 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in eligible races at Happy Valley (Hong Kong).
• Keeneland Daily Double Down: Hit at least two double wagers (only applies to minimum $1 base wagers) to unlock a 50% bonus on all winning double wagers at Keeneland for the day, up to $50 daily.

Picks and Plays

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs, 3:01 p.m. ET)

#5 Liturgia (2-1) is a logical favorite after placing second three times over this distance and class level, including her last two starts at Horseshoe Indianapolis. But with a 5-0-3-1 lifetime record, it’s looking like this two-year-old filly has a tendency to settle for the minor awards rather than fight for victory.

Let’s try to beat Liturgia with #4 Happysecret (5-2), who might have a bit more upside. The daughter of champion sprinter Runhappy finished third in her debut sprinting six furlongs against maiden special weight company at Churchill Downs, beaten only half a length while posting a 67 Brisnet Speed rating that stacks up well against Liturgia. If Happysecret moves forward in her second start, she can spring a mild surprise.

• $10 to win on #4 Happysecret
• $20 Exacta: 4 with 5
  Total: $30

Keeneland: Race 7: $100,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (1 1/16 miles, 4:12 p.m. ET)

#3 Frank’s Honor (4-1) thrived in his first start around two turns, leading all the way to win a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Churchill Downs by five lengths. It’s not surprising to see Frank’s Honor succeed running long since he’s a stoutly bred son of champion Honor Code out of a mare by Medaglia d’Oro.

Frank’s Honor is running back on short rest, but he’s progressing in the right direction and looks ready to win again. #1 Forbidden Secret (8-1) and #5 Redeemer (10-1) can battle to complete the exacta.

• $20 to win on #3 Frank’s Honor
• $5 Exacta: 3 with 1,5 ($10)
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 7: ITOBA Stallion Season S. (one mile, 5:36 p.m. ET)

#3 Mansfield Tiger (2-1) took a nice step forward in his first start for trainer Tim Eggleston. Overlooked at odds of 15-1 in a one-mile and 70-yard allowance on Sept. 26 at Horseshoe Indianapolis, the three-year-old gelding pressed the pace before forging on to win by three-quarters of a length, earning a career-best 79 Brisnet Speed rating.

The only horse in the ITOBA Stallion Season S. who has posted higher Brisnet Speed ratings is #5 Too Bad Justice (3-1), but his best ratings (81 and 80) came in sprints, and Too Bad Justice finished third behind Mansfield Tiger in the Sept. 26 allowance. Mansfield Tiger looks ready to win again under jockey Samuel Bermudez, who has gone 4-for-12 (33%) teaming up with Eggleston over the last two months.

• $15 to win on #3 Mansfield Tiger
• $15 Exacta: 1 with 5
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Keeneland, Race 8: 7,947 Super High 5 carryover (4:44 p.m. ET)

If you’re sitting around thinking, “Boy, there’s nothing I’d enjoy more right now than chasing an unimaginably difficult carryover,” you had best check out Wednesday’s Super High 5 at Keeneland. The $1 wager features a $7,947 carryover, but winning a share requires deciphering Race 8, a one-mile grass allowance with 12 entries in the main body of the field and two more on the also-eligible list.

Where do we even begin? It makes sense to start with morning line favorite #3 Rhetoric (3-1), who finished third in a $40,000 allowance optional claimer at Del Mar last month. But here’s the problem: Rhetoric is a dirt horse who has yet to race on turf, and there’s no telling whether the surface switch will help or hinder his chances. Dam Hard Not to Like won three Grade 1 races on turf, but sire Quality Road was a four-time Grade 1 winner on dirt.

#5 Bay Street Money (7-2) might be a more reliable choice. The five-year-old gelding finished second twice over this surface and class level at Belmont Park earlier this year and exits a close seventh-place effort with a troubled trip at Saratoga. Keep in mind, Bay Street Money will be ridden by Gerardo Corrales, a high-percentage jockey with a 6-for-12 (50%) record teaming up with trainer Mike Maker over the last two months.

But even if we key Bay Street Money on top of our tickets, it’s hard to eliminate any horse from the minor awards. Assuming a dozen runners start, playing a thorough Super High 5 ticket will quickly grow expensive.

So forget being thorough—we’re going to shoot for the moon by playing a bold, longshot-laden Super High 5 for less than $75.

First, we’ll key Bay Street Money on top. Then we’ll toss Rhetoric from consideration. Underneath, we’ll emphasize runners with relatively little turf experience, figuring they have the most upside—horses like #7 Coleridge (12-1), #8 Greatheart (6-1), #10 Axthelm (9-2), and #12 Britain’s Kitten (15-1). Throw in #6 Wake Surf (15-1), and we should be ready to roll.

• $1 Super High 5: 5 with 7,10,12 with 6,7,8,10,12 with 6,7,8,10,12 with 6,7,8,10,12 ($72)

Good luck!