Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Oct. 13

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, Oct. 13 at Keeneland, Presque Isle Downs, and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with horses to single in carryovers at Keeneland and Presque Isle.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• $1,000 Hoosier Park Pick 4 Hit It and Split It: Hit the early Pick 4 at Hoosier Park on any Thursday from July 14 through Oct. 13 to win your share of a $1,000 weekly jackpot.
• Keeneland Daily Double Down: Hit at least two double wagers (only applies to minimum $1 base wagers) to unlock a 50% bonus on all winning double wagers at Keeneland for the day, up to $50 daily.

Picks and Plays

Keeneland: Race 6: $50,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs, 3:40 p.m. ET)

#3 Peaceful Moment (10-1) got off to a poor start in her debut sprinting six furlongs against maiden special weight competition at Churchill Downs, but the daughter of Cloud Computing gained quite a bit of ground around the turn and down the homestretch, passing several rivals to finish eighth by 7 1/4 lengths.

Kenny McPeek trainees often improve second-time out, and McPeek strikes at a solid 18% rate with horses descending from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company. At 10-1, Peaceful Moment is worth betting to win and playing over #8 Saenz (9-5) in the exacta.

• $15 to win on #3 Peaceful Moment
• $5 Exacta: 3 with 8
  Total: $20

Presque Isle Downs: Race 6: $8,500 Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 3:45 p.m. ET)

#2 Grand Mamoo (6-1) was in hot form during the spring at Presque Isle Downs. After running third in a $25,000 claimer, the five-year-old mare employed rallying tactics to win back-to-back $12,500 and $13,500 claimers.

Grand Mamoo has been freshened since June and returns at a slightly easier class level. There’s a fair amount of speed in Wednesday’s field, so Grand Mamoo should encounter enough pace to set up her winning rally.

#3 Riverside Walk (7-5), victorious in a pair of $8,500 claimers during the summer at Presque Isle, can complete the exacta.

• $20 to win on #2 Grand Mamoo
• $10 Exacta: 2 with 3
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 4:15 p.m. ET)

#1 Splash Mountain (4-1) hails from the barn of Brendan Walsh, who has compiled a solid 12-3-2-1 (25%) record saddling first-time starters over the Horseshoe Indianapolis turf course since 2020. That includes a 5-2-1-0 record with horses debuting over one mile or farther, as Splash Mountain is doing.

Splash Mountain is a logical contender, but don't overlook #2 Dessert First (5-1), who finished second in a 7 1/2-furlong turf maiden special weight at Horseshoe Indianapolis last month. Her proven ability to contend over this course and class level is a positive.

Let's box Splash Mountain and Dessert First in a small exacta:

• $5 Exacta box: 1,2 ($10)

Carryover Watch

Keeneland, Race 5: $17,862 Pick 6 carryover (3:08 p.m. ET)

The Thursday racing action at Keeneland includes an enticing $17,862 carryover in the $1 Pick 6.

Looking for a single to build a ticket around? Check out Race 8, a $125,000 allowance optional claimer for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs over the main track. Only half a dozen runners have been entered, and the versatile #6 Static Fire (4-5) looks tough to beat.

Static Fire debuted on turf during the 2021 Saratoga meet, wiring a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight by 3 1/2 lengths. She didn’t run again until May 2022, when she switched to dirt for a six-furlong allowance at Churchill Downs and led all the way to beat a next-out winner by 1 3/4 lengths, earning a career-best 94 Brisnet Speed rating.

Static Fire has since competed admirably against stakes competition on turf, finishing fourth in the Coronation Cup S. at Saratoga and fourth in the Music City S. at Kentucky Downs. Returning to dirt and dropping into the allowance ranks can send Static Fire to the winner’s circle at a short price for trainer Brian Lynch, who wins at a 20% rate with horses transitioning from turf to dirt.

Presque Isle Downs, Race 1: $1,730 Pick 5 carryover (1:30 p.m. ET)
Presque Isle Downs, Race 4: $1,379 Pick 5 carryover (2:51 p.m. ET)

Guess what? There are a couple of Pick 5 carryovers available to chase on Thursday at Presque Isle Downs. The early Pick 5 features a $1,730 prize pool, while the late Pick 5 has assembled a $1,379 bonus pot.

Both of the 50-cent wagers involve Race 5, a $20,000 maiden claimer for two-year-olds sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta. The nine-horse field contains many runners who are switching surfaces and dropping in class, but if you want to take a shot singling a horse proven over Thursday’s conditions, you should check out #9 You Looking At Me (7-2).

You Looking At Me debuted over this precise track, distance, and class level on Oct. 3, carving out the pace before weakening late to finish second by a nose. There aren’t any guarantees that the surface-switchers and class-droppers will improve sufficiently to win, so the fact You Looking At Me has already proven her ability to contend under these conditions is a big positive. If she prevails as a 7-2 single, You Looking At Me will add lots of value to both Pick 5 sequences.

Good luck!