Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Oct. 14

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, Oct. 14 at Woodbine and Keeneland, including a pair of trifectas.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Keeneland Daily Double Down: Hit at least two double wagers (only applies to minimum $1 base wagers) to unlock a 50% bonus on all winning double wagers at Keeneland for the day, up to $50 daily.
• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in eligible races at Randwick (Australia).
• Exacta Insurance: Receive refunds on exacta bets (up to $10) if your two selected horses finish in the first three home (but not in the winning order) in select races at Aqueduct. Offer applies to straight exacta bets only.
• $15,000 Everest Carnival Leaderboard Competition: Place $10+ win bets at a selected Australian track each Friday from Sept. 30 through Oct. 28 to earn points and win your share of prizes worth a total of $15,000.

Picks and Plays

Woodbine: Race 3: South Ocean S. (6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta, 2:22 p.m. ET)

#1 A Touch of Red (9-5) isn’t the most accomplished filly in this field of Canadian-bred juveniles, but she made a great impression in her debut over this track last month, pressing the early pace in a $40,000 maiden optional claimer before surging clear to dominate by five lengths.

Both the runner-up and the third-place finisher returned to win, flattering A Touch of Red’s performance. Let’s bet A Touch of Red on top of exacta and trifecta tickets using Muskoka S. winner #3 Anam Cara (2-1) and Victorian Queen S. winner #4 Ancient Spirit (8-5) underneath.

• $10 Exacta: 1 with 3,4 ($20)
• $5 Trifecta: 1 with 3,4 with 3,4 ($10)
  Total: $30

Woodbine: Race 7: Frost King S. (6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta, 4:36 p.m. ET)

#6 Poulin in O T (1-1) has won three of his four starts at Woodbine and is 2-for-2 over the Tapeta track. During the summer, he trounced the Victoria S. against open two-year-old competition by 3 1/4 lengths.

Poulin in O T is squaring off against Canadian-bred rivals in the Frost King, and all signs suggest he’ll be tough to beat. Whereas none of his rivals have earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 82, Poulin in O T has posted figures of 84, 85, and 88 in his three victories. He enters off a gate-to-wire triumph in the Bull Page S. on turf is worth keying on top of #1 Silent Fortune (6-1), #2 Boss Holiday (4-1), and #4 Gem Quality (9-2) in the trifecta.

• $5 Trifecta: 6 with 1,2,4 with 1,2,4 ($30)

Keeneland: Race 8: Allowance (six furlongs, 4:44 p.m. ET)

#12 Strobe (9-5) ran like a monster in his May 7 debut at Churchill Downs. Favored to win a six-furlong maiden special weight, the beautifully bred Brad Cox trainee led all the way to trounce his pursuers—including future Vosburgh S. (G2) winner Elite Power—by 4 1/2 lengths in 1:08.71.

This effort produced a massive 107 Brisnet Speed rating. Strobe is coming off a layoff, but Cox wins at a 23% rate with horses returning from breaks of 90 days or more, and Strobe enters off a sharp series of workouts at Churchill Downs. Under hot jockey Florent Geroux, Strobe looks ready to deliver victory over #5 Classic Moment (20-1) and #6 Mahaamel (4-1).

• $20 to win on #12 Strobe
• $5 Exacta: 12 with 5,6 ($10)
  Total: $30

Good luck!