Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Oct. 17

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Monday, Oct. 17 at Presque Isle Downs, Horseshoe Indianapolis, and Finger Lakes, along with a horse to single in Zia Park’s Pick 5 carryover.

Picks and Plays

Presque Isle Downs: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 1:57 p.m. ET)

In a field that hasn’t come up overly tough on paper, first-time starter #4 Dreaming of Kona (8-1) offers some appeal. The son of capable sprinter Fast Anna breezed a fast five furlongs in :58 2/5 at Presque Isle Downs on Sept. 29, suggesting the gray colt has enough speed to challenge on debut.

#7 Aztec Legend (2-1), runner-up over this track, distance, and class level on Sept. 28, is a logical choice to complete the exacta.

• $15 to win on #4 Dreaming of Kona
• $5 Exacta: 4 with 7
  Total: $20

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 3:01 p.m. ET)

#6 Cami Cat (3-1) is technically climbing the class ladder after finishing second in a $50,000 maiden claimer at Churchill Downs. But the class jump might be an illusion; that maiden claiming effort produced a 75 Brisnet Speed rating, matching the par winning figure for Monday’s conditions at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

Under high-percentage jockey Gerardo Corrales (a 21% winner this year), Cami Cat can make her first start outside of Kentucky a winning one. #3 Hermana (4-1) and #8 Sammies Samurai (7-2) can battle for the minor awards.

• $20 to win on #6 Cami Cat
• $5 Exacta: 6 with 3,8 ($10)
  Total: $30

Finger Lakes: Race 7: New York Breeders’ Futurity (six furlongs, 4:04 p.m. ET)

#6 Andiamo a Firenze (7-5) didn’t fire his strongest shot when setting the pace in the one-mile Champagne S. (G1) at Aqueduct last month, fading to finish fourth. But Andiamo a Firenze is 2-for-2 facing New York-bred rivals, most notably dominating the 6 1/2-furlong Funny Cide S. by 5 1/2 lengths.

Cutting back from one mile to six furlongs and returning to the New York-bred ranks should send Andiamo a Firenze back to the winner’s circle. #3 Acoustic Ave (5-2), third in the Funny Cide and subsequently a runaway winner of the Aspirant S. at Finger Lakes, can complete a cold exacta.

• $25 Exacta: 6 with 3

Carryover Watch

Zia Park, Race 5: $230 Pick 5 carryover (4:18 p.m. ET)

The new racing week kicks off on Monday with a carryover up for grabs at Zia Park. The 50-cent Pick 5 features a modest prize pool ($230), but it’s a non-jackpot offering set to be split among all winning ticketholders, so the carryover—no matter how small—adds betting value to the pool.

The Pick 5 gets underway in Race 5 (post time 4:18 p.m. ET), and the sequence features 43 entries (averaging 8.6 per race) and 41,472 possible outcomes before scratches. It’s not the hardest Pick 5 we’ve ever encountered from a mathematical perspective, but it’s definitely not a sequence to be approached casually.

The good news is, handicapping the Pick 5 can be sharply simplified if you’re willing to single morning line favorite #1 Flying Fred (8-5) in Race 6, a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight for horses aged three, four, and five. There are eight entries, so singling Flying Fred reduces the number of Pick 5 outcomes to consider down to 5,184.

The appeal of Flying Fred is simple: he’s been competing on tougher circuits and figures to appreciate taking his talents on the road to Zia Park. His 10 career starts have come in Louisiana, Kentucky, and most recently California, where he finished fourth in a $20,000 maiden claimer racing one mile at Del Mar last month.

Flying Fred has never run shorter than one mile, so cutting back to 5 1/2 furlongs is unexplored territory for the four-year-old son of Verrazano. But racing over a shorter trip may sharpen Flying Fred’s finishing speed, considering he’s lost ground from the eighth pole to finish line in nine of his 10 starts.

Flying Fred regularly puts up Brisnet Speed ratings that fit well against Monday’s field, and while he’s spent a good chunk of his career competing on grass, he’s hit the board in three of his four starts on dirt. Under hot jockey Francisco Amparan (a 33% winner so far this meet), Flying Fred looks ready to win in his first start for trainer Martin Valdez-Cabral Jr., who strikes at a 25% rate with horses competing for the first time under his care.

Good luck!