Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Oct. 18

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Tuesday, Oct. 18 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Parx Racing, along with horses to single in Pick 5 carryovers at Presque Isle Downs and Penn National.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Trifecta Tuesday: Receive a 15% bonus on trifecta winnings (excluding stake amount; up to $25 per day) on every Tuesday through Nov. 29.

Picks and Plays

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 3:32 p.m. ET)

#6 Lord Donegal (7-2) ran strongly on his debut traveling 7 1/2 furlongs over this course and class level, rallying to finish second by 1 1/2 lengths. Trainer Brad Cox wins at a 28% rate with second-time starters and a 30% rate with horses running long for the second time, so the stats suggest Lord Donegal will perform just as well in his second run under colors.

Stablemate #2 Oh Chic (3-1) can battle with first-time starter #11 Now and Later (5-1) for second place. The latter colt is conditioned by Shug McGaughey, who has gone 5-2-1-1 (40%) at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet.

• $16 win: #6 Lord Donegal
• $7 Exacta: 6 with 2, 11 ($14)
  Total: $30

Parx Racing: Race 9: M. P. Ballezzi Appreciation Mile S. (one mile, 4:33 p.m. ET)

#7 Far Mo Power (3-1) has crossed the wire first in three of his last four starts, including the Parx Dirt Mile over this track and distance on Sept. 24. He was disqualified and placed second on that occasion, but regardless of the official outcome, Far Mo Power ran a gritty race to get his neck across the wire first over multiple Grade 1 winner Mind Control.

He's facing easier competition in the M. P. Ballezzi Appreciation Mile and should be up for a winning performance. Recent Monmouth Park allowance optional claiming winner #8 Thomas Shelby (4-1) can battle with the improving #9 Ridin With Biden (5-2) for the minor awards.

• $15 win: #7 Far Mo Power
• $5 Exacta: 7 with 8, 9 ($10)
• $2.50 Trifecta: 7 with 8, 9 with 8, 9 ($5)
  Total: $30

Parx Racing: Race 10: Jump Start S. (seven furlongs, 5:02 p.m. ET)

After coming up short against the red-hot Fortheluvofbourbon in his last two starts, #8 Beren (6-1) is facing a somewhat easier field of Pennsylvania-bred rivals in the Jump Start S. Beren is a classy sprinter on his best day and has half a dozen stakes wins to prove it, so getting away from Fortheluvofbourbon might be all Beren needs to deliver a 6-1 surprise for the hot jockey/trainer duo of Frankie Pennington and Robert E. Reid.

#4 Uncle Ernie (4-1) and #6 Bourbon Music (9-2) look like key challengers we’ll use for second place.

• $20 win: #8 Beren
• $5 Exacta: 8 with 4, 6 ($10)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Presque Isle Downs, Race 4: $3,478 Pick 5 carryover (2:51 p.m. ET)

An equipment malfunction triggered the cancellation of the Monday finale at Presque Isle Downs, which means there’s a $3,478 carryover on the table for Tuesday’s 50-cent Late Pick 5.

A competitive sequence awaits, but #4 Solidarity (8-5) in Race 5 is a possible single. The race in question is a maiden special weight for fillies and mares traveling one mile and 70 yards on Tapeta, conditions that may suit Solidarity just fine.

Solidarity has spent her first three starts competing on turf, cracking the trifecta in maiden special weights racing 1 1/16 miles and one mile at Delaware Park and Colonial Downs before fading to eighth place in a 1 5/16-mile maiden special weight at Kentucky Downs. Cutting back in distance should benefit Solidarity, and the surface switch is another possible positive since trainer Arnaud Delacour wins at a 40% rate with horses transitioning from turf to synthetic.

Penn National, Race 4: $4,872 Pick 5 carryover (7:22 p.m. ET)

The Tuesday card at Penn National features a $4,872 carryover in the $1 Pick 5.

Looking for singles to build tickets around? Race 5, a $6,250 claimer taking place over six furlongs on dirt, offers a possibility in the form of #5 Grab the Gold (5-2). Winner of an $8,000 claimer at Penn National during the summer, Grab the Gold has since hit the board in a trio of $16,000 and $16,000-$14,000 claimers over the same track.

Since being transferred to the care of high-percentage trainer Kimberly Graci (a 23% winner at Penn National), Grab the Gold has posted four straight Brisnet Speed ratings in the 77-82 range, stamping the six-year-old gelding among the fastest horses in Tuesday’s field. Throw in hot jockey Julio Hernandez (a 22% winner at Penn National), and Grab the Gold looms as the horse to beat.

#6 Just Add Moonlight (6-5) in Race 8 also looks like single material. In this $10,000 maiden claimer for fillies and mare sprinting six furlongs on dirt, Just Add Moonlight is a Brisnet Speed rating standout. Whereas her rivals have been struggling to crack the 60 Brisnet Speed rating plateau, Just Add Moonlight has posted ratings of 62 and higher in six of her eight starts.

Just Add Moonlight has cracked the trifecta in her last two starts against $25,000 maiden claiming competition at Penn National and figures to romp while dropping down to the $10,000 level.

Good luck!