Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Oct. 19

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, Oct. 19 at Keeneland, Presque Isle Downs, and Horseshoe Indianapolis, including a ticket for Keeneland’s $8,456 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in eligible races at Happy Valley (Hong Kong).
• Keeneland Daily Double Down: Hit at least two double wagers (only applies to minimum $1 base wagers) to unlock a 50% bonus on all winning double wagers at Keeneland for the day, up to $50 daily.

Picks and Plays

Keeneland: Race 1: $20,000 Maiden Claiming (1 1/8 miles, 1:00 p.m. ET)

#4 Heir to Greatness (7-2) hasn’t competed on dirt since finishing fifth in his debut against maiden special weight company racing one mile at Churchill Downs. Two subsequent efforts against similar company on turf haven’t produced the most inspiring performances, but Heir to Greatness is eligible to move forward while descending into the maiden claiming ranks. Trainer Al Stall wins at a lofty 24% rate with horses making this class drop.

We’ll look toward #6 Angel of the North (10-1) and #10 Order of Merit (5-2) to complete the exacta.

• $20 to win on #4 Heir to Greatness
• $5 Exacta: 4 with 6,10 ($10)
  Total: $30

Presque Isle Downs: Race 2: $6,250 Claiming (one mile and 70 yards on Tapeta, 1:57 p.m. ET)

#3 Tales of Makenna (9-5) ran well in her first start over the Presque Isle Tapeta, finishing third in a $12,500 claimer racing one mile on Sept. 27. Trainer Linda Rice wins at a 32% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder, and this high-percentage stat—when coupled with Rice’s 9-3-2-1 (33%) record at Presque Isle this year—stamps Tales of Makenna as the filly to beat.

#2 Scoop There It Is (5-2) and #4 Tracker Jacker (6-1) are logical contenders for the exacta.

• $10 Exacta: 3 with 2,4 ($20)

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (one mile, 4:34 p.m. ET)

#5 Impeccability (8-1) got pulled up early in his debut racing 1 1/16 miles against maiden special weight company over the Saratoga turf course, but he returned to the work tab six days later and has posted an encouraging series of five-furlong workouts in preparation for his second try. Impeccability is bred to handle dirt, so switching surfaces may trigger an improved performance. Keep in mind, trainer Kenny McPeek has compiled a solid 7-2-2-1 (29%) record at Horseshoe Indianapolis this year.

Let’s play Impeccability in the exacta with logical favorites #2 Knicks Story (5-2) and #3 Accidental Hero (7-2).

• $4 Exacta: 5 with 2,3 ($8)
• $6 Exacta: 2,3 with 5 ($12)
  Total: $20

Carryover Watch

Presque Isle Downs, Race 1: $4,916 Pick 5 carryover (1:30 p.m. ET)

The Wednesday card at Presque Isle Downs gets underway with a $4,916 carryover in the 50-cent Early Pick 5.

The sequence involves the above-mentioned Race 2, in which #3 Tales of Makenna (9-5) is a deserving favorite while dropping in class for hot trainer Linda Rice. In addition to our exacta keying Tales of Makenna on top, we’ll single Tales of Makenna in the Pick 5.

Keeneland, Race 8: $8,456 Super High 5 carryover (4:44 p.m. ET)

The racing week at Keeneland kicks off with an $8,456 Super High 5 carryover up for grabs. The $1 wager is available to play in Race 8, a 5 1/2-furlong turf allowance for fillies and mares.

The morning line favorite is #9 Opening Buzz (5-2), whose lone turf run to date led to victory in a $20,000 allowance optional claimer sprinting five furlongs against California-bred rivals at Del Mar. Opening Buzz ran the opening half-mile in a blazing :43.95 that day and beat a next-out winner by 2 3/4 lengths, but she’s facing tougher competition at Keeneland and can’t be considered a lock to win.

I might be more inclined to favor #1 Shannon (3-1). The daughter of Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Nyquist hasn’t missed the exacta in three turf starts, breaking her maiden sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs at Keeneland before finishing second by narrow margins against allowance company at Ellis Park and Kentucky Downs. Shannon has tactical speed but is capable of sitting off the lead, setting the stage for a winning trip while returning to Keeneland under hot jockey Florent Geroux.

#11 Top Gun Girl (4-1) is another formidable contender. The Wesley Ward trainee has compiled a solid 3-1-2-0 record on turf, beating colts in her maiden victory sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs at Keeneland last fall and recently returning to grass with a runner-up finish in a 6 1/2-furlong Kentucky Downs allowance. The run-up distance in the latter race was 336 feet (more than a sixteenth of a mile), so Top Gun Girl actually ran farther than seven furlongs and should appreciate cutting back in trip at Keeneland.

Other horses we’ll use include recent Kentucky Downs allowance third-place finisher #3 Boxing Day (15-1), Kentucky Downs maiden winner #4 Aboukir Bay (8-1), and Woodbine allowance competitor #7 Gambling Cat (6-1).

If we key Shannon and Top Gun Girl on top of our tickets while emphasizing Opening Buzz underneath, we should have a good chance to take down the Super High 5 on a reasonable budget:

• $1 Super High 5: 1,11 with 1,9,11 with 1,9,11 with 3,4,7 with 3,4,7 ($24)
• $1 Super High 5: 1,11 with 1,9,11 with 3,4,7 with 1,9,11 with 3,4,7 ($24)
  Total: $48

Good luck!