Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Oct. 20

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, Oct. 20 at Keeneland and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with horses to single in Presque Isle’s $1,894 Pick 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Keeneland Daily Double Down: Hit at least two double wagers (only applies to minimum $1 base wagers) to unlock a 50% bonus on all winning double wagers at Keeneland for the day, up to $50 daily.

Picks and Plays

Keeneland: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles, 2:04 p.m. ET)

#1 Escapologist (7-2) showed some promise in his debut over this distance and class level at Churchill Downs, rallying late to finish third with an encouraging 78 Brisnet Speed rating. Trainer Kenny McPeek wins at a solid 17% rate with second-time starters, and at a 22% rate with horses running long for the second time, so the stats suggest Escapologist will move forward off his debut.

Throw in jockey Brian Hernandez (a 22% winner teaming up with McPeek over the last two months), and Escapologist is worth betting to win and keying over #7 Endpoint (3-1) and #10 Laver (15-1) in the exacta.

• $20 to win on #1 Escapologist
• $5 Exacta: 1 with 7,10 ($10)
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 2: $20,000 Maiden Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs, 2:40 p.m. ET)

#2 Crack the Moon (4-1) carved out a quick pace in his debut for a $30,000 maiden claiming tag racing one mile at Churchill Downs, but faded after six furlongs to finish seventh.

Dropping down in class and distance could be a winning recipe for Crack the Moon, who is adding Lasix for his second start. The win percentage of trainer Fausto Gutierrez jumps from 5% with first-time starters to 14% with second-time starters, so Crack the Moon is eligible to improve under leading Horseshoe Indianapolis jockey Marcelino Pedroza.

#3 Take the Charge (7-2) can complete the exacta.

• $20 to win on #2 Crack the Moon
• $10 Exacta: 2 with 3
  Total: $30

Keeneland: Race 9: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles, 5:16 p.m. ET)

#5 Comparative (9-2) ran reasonably well in her debut over a one-turn mile at Churchill Downs, tracking the pace before staying on to finish third in a maiden special weight.

Stretching out around two turns should suit Comparative just fine, considering she’s a daughter of Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Street Sense out of a mare by Preakness S. (G1) winner Bernardini. Comparative’s full-brother Shared Sense won the Indiana Derby (G3) and Oklahoma Derby (G3) racing 1 1/8 miles, and trainer Brad Cox strikes at a 32% rate with horses running long for the second time, so all signs point toward Comparative producing a competitive performance.

We’ll use #3 Pure Pauline (3-1) and #9 Grand Entrance (8-1) for second place.

• $20 to win on #5 Comparative
• $5 Exacta: 5 with 3,9 ($10)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Presque Isle Downs, Race 4: $1,894 Pick 5 carryover (2:51 p.m. ET)

Thursday’s 50-cent Late Pick 5 at Presque Isle Downs has tossed up a $1,894 non-jackpot carryover for fans of multi-race wagers to pursue.

With 40 entries (averaging eight horses per field) across the five races, a tricky sequence is on tap. There are 31,752 possible outcomes to consider, and while that’s not an unmanageable number, reducing the possibilities with a reliable single or two would certainly simplify the handicapping process.

The Pick 5 kicks off in Race 4, a $5,000 claimer for horses who haven’t won a race since April 20, 2022. Seven horses have been entered in the one-mile and 70-yard Tapeta test, and morning line favorite #1 Papa Honor (8-5) looks like a possible single.

After hitting the board a few times against tougher $10,000 claiming company over Gulfstream Park’s Tapeta track, Papa Honor transitioned to the care of trainer Jay Bernardini and took his talents on the road to Mountaineer, where the four-year-old gelding posted back-to-back victories in $4,000 claimers on turf. Competing for a $5,000 tag over the Presque Isle Tapeta should suit Papa Honor just fine, and it’s worth noting Bernardini strikes at a 23% rate with horses entering off a victory.

Race 5 also looks like an opportunity to seek a single. The race in question is a $5,000 claimer for fillies and mares racing one mile and 70 yards on Tapeta, and although a field of eight has entered, morning line choice #5 A Real Hero (9-5) is a possible standout.

In three starts since being claimed by Presque Isle’s leading trainer Timothy Hamm, A Real Hero has competed with aplomb against $12,500 claiming company. She finished second by a nose on July 21, checked in third on Aug. 9, and rallied to a three-length victory on Sept. 13.

Hamm wins at a 30% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder, and Presque Isle’s runaway leading jockey Pablo Morales retains the mount, so A Real Hero looks ready to romp while descending to the $5,000 level.

Good luck!