Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Oct. 21

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for a trio of stakes on Friday, Oct. 21 at Remington Park, along with horses to single in the $29,405 Pick 6 carryover at Keeneland.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Keeneland Daily Double Down: Hit at least two double wagers (only applies to minimum $1 base wagers) to unlock a 50% bonus on all winning double wagers at Keeneland for the day, up to $50 daily.
• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in eligible races at Randwick (Australia).
• Exacta Insurance: Receive refunds on exacta bets (up to $10) if your two selected horses finish in the first three home (but not in the winning order) in select races at Laurel Park. Offer applies to straight exacta bets only.
• $15,000 Everest Carnival Leaderboard Competition: Place $10+ win bets at a selected Australian track each Friday from Sept. 30 through Oct. 28 to earn points and win your share of prizes worth a total of $15,000.

Picks and Plays

Remington Park: Race 3: Oklahoma Classics Lassie S. (six furlongs, 9:05 p.m. ET)

#5 Doudoudouwanadance (5-2) was terrific in her debut at Remington Park, surging from just off the pace to dominate a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight for Oklahoma-breds by eight lengths. Her reward was an 80 Brisnet Speed rating, the fastest figure in the Oklahoma Classics Lassie field by nine points.

If Doudoudouwanadance produces a similar effort in her stakes debut, she can score another easy victory for the hot jockey/trainer duo of Leandro Goncalves and Kari Craddock, who have teamed up to win at a 36% rate over the last two months.

We’ll look toward #1 Smart Okie (8-1), #4 Artistic Vision (3-1), and #6 Mamashavnahotflash (4-1) to round out a trifecta ticket.

• $5 Trifecta: 5 with 1,4,6 with 1,4,6 ($30)

Remington Park: Race 5: Oklahoma Classics Distaff Turf S. (1 1/16 miles on turf, 10:04 p.m. ET)

#4 Run Slewpy Run (3-5) boasts a perfect 5-for-5 record over the Remington Park turf course, including a three-length score in the 2021 edition of this race. Run Slewpy Run enters off back-to-back victories at Remington, highlighted by a win in the Bob Barry Memorial S., and she looks like a standout to repeat in the Oklahoma Classics Distaff Turf.

#2 Morning Twilight (7-2) and #1 Plenty of Vision (9-2), separated by a head when finishing second and third in the Bob Barry Memorial, are logical choices to complete the exacta and trifecta. We’ll give a slight edge to Plenty of Vision, who has more experience running long.

• $20 Exacta: 4 with 1
• $5 Trifecta: 4 with 1 with 2
  Total: $25

Remington Park: Race 6: Oklahoma Classics Distaff S. (one mile and 70 yards, 10:32 p.m. ET)

#4 Hits Pricey Legacy (1-1) is 2-for-2 this year, dominating fellow Oklahoma-bred fillies in the Oklahoma Stallion Fillies S. at Remington Park before beating non-state-restricted company in the Remington Park Oaks (G3).

Hits Pricey Legacy is conditioned by hot trainer C. R. Trout, a 31% winner at Remington this meet who has gone 8-for-20 (40%) teaming up with jockey Jose Alvarez over the last two months. Defending Oklahoma Classics Distaff winner #7 She’s All Wolfe (6-5) is a formidable challenger, but Hits Pricey Legacy is on the rise and looks ready to steal top honors from her older rival.

• $25 Exacta: 4 with 7

Carryover Watch

Keeneland, Race 5: $29,405 Pick 6 carryover (3:08 p.m. ET)

Feel like chasing a lucrative non-jackpot carryover? Then check out the Friday card at Keeneland, where there’s a $29,405 prize pool up for grabs in the $1 Pick 6.

Constructing a winning ticket won’t be easy. The six races have all drawn a minimum of 10 entries, and five of them have at least 12 entries. Counting the 11 also-eligible and main-track-only entrants, the six races have drawn 81 entries, from which a maximum of 70 can start. Before scratches, there are (brace yourself) 5,529,600 possible outcomes.

Finding viable singles in a sequence this competitive is difficult, but we’ll do our best to steer you in the right direction. We’ll start by examining Race 7, a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight for juveniles. Many bettors will be drawn to morning line favorite #5 Weyhill Road (5-2), who sold for $1.6 million as a yearling. The Shug McGaughey trainee is a sibling to four graded stakes winners, including Preakness S. (G1) runner-up Midnight Bourbon and Haskell S. (G1) winner Girvin.

But Weyhill Road is bred to run long, and McGaughey’s 13% win rate with first-time starters isn’t overly eye-catching, so Weyhill Road figures to show his best when stretching out in distance down the road.

In the meantime, we’ll try to beat Weyhill Road with #1 Communication Memo (5-1). The son of hot young sire Bolt d’Oro ran third in his debut behind the promising Loggins, who came back to finish a game third in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1). Communication Memo posted an 83 Brisnet Speed rating that isn’t far off the 85 par winning figure for Friday’s conditions, and since trainer Steve Asmussen wins at a 21% rate with second-time starters, Communication Memo only figures to improve at Keeneland.

Race 9, a $125,000 allowance optional claimer for three-year-old fillies racing 1 1/16 miles, offers a potentially sounder single opportunity in the form of #9 Falconet (2-1). The Todd Pletcher trainee broke her maiden over this track and distance during the spring and has since finished second in the Iowa Oaks (G3) at Prairie Meadows and Seneca S. at Churchill Downs. The latter race saw Falconet finish second by a neck while pulling 1 1/4 lengths clear of key Friday rival #4 Skratch Kat (3-1).

Trainer Todd Pletcher has been on fire at Keeneland this meet, going 9-for-23 (39%), and co-leading jockey Tyler Gaffalione is named to ride. Dropping into the allowance ranks should send Falconet to the winner’s circle.

Good luck!