Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Oct. 24

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Monday, Oct. 24 at Presque Isle Downs and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with a horse to single in the $5,930 Pick 5 carryover at Finger Lakes.

Picks and Plays

Presque Isle Downs: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 2:24 p.m. ET)

#3 Girl Afraid (5-2) might be a 0-for-6 maiden, but she’s hit the board in five of her six starts and ran particularly well in her first try sprinting over the Presque Isle Tapeta track. In a six-furlong maiden special weight on Oct. 5, Girl Afraid carved out a quick pace before weakening late to finish second by a head.

Sticking to the same track, distance, and class level should make Girl Afraid formidable for trainer S. Matthew Kintz, a 21% winner in maiden special weights.

#5 Bulsara (3-1), adding blinkers while shipping in from the New York circuit, is a logical choice to complete the exacta.

• $20 to win on #3 Girl Afraid
• $10 Exacta: 3 with 5
  Total: $30

Presque Isle Downs: Race 7: Finest City S. (six furlongs on Tapeta, 4:12 p.m. ET)

#7 Flor de Sombra (9-5) is the morning line favorite after winning two of her three starts at Parx Racing, most notably dominating the Miss Blue Tye Dye S. in gate-to-wire fashion. Her Brisnet Speed ratings are strong, but she’s never run over a synthetic track, and that’s a question mark.

Let’s try to beat Flor de Sombra with the first-time starter #5 Scottish Symphony (7-2). The well-bred daughter of Grade 1-winning juvenile Mendelssohn has been training fast over the Tapeta track at Woodbine, blazing a bullet half-mile from the starting gate in :46 before coming back to breeze a bullet five furlongs in :59 1/5.

Trainer Mark Casse is showing confidence debuting this Pennsylvania-bred filly in a stakes, and Scottish Symphony’s apparent affinity for Tapeta may give her an advantage over Flor de Sombra.

• $20 to win on #5 Scottish Symphony
• $10 Exacta: 5 with 7
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 5: Allowance (six furlongs, 4:34 p.m. ET)

#7 U Glow Girl (2-1) was an impressive winner at Saratoga during the summer, leading almost all the way to dominate a six-furlong maiden special weight by 7 1/4 lengths. The daughter of Girvin subsequently faltered as the favorite when stepping into stakes company for the E. L. Gaylord Memorial S. at Remington Park, but dropping into the allowance ranks at Horseshoe Indianapolis may trigger a rebound.

Trainer Brad Cox wins at a 31% rate with horses beaten as the favorite in their previous start, and leading Horseshoe Indianapolis jockey Marcelino Pedroza is picking up the mount, so there are plenty of positives in U Glow Girl’s favor.

#5 Kiss Me On Oconee (5-1) and #10 Carlotuk (6-1) can battle for second place.

• $16 to win on #7 U Glow Girl
• $7 Exacta: 7 with 5,10 ($14)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Finger Lakes, Race 4: $5,930 Pick 5 carryover (2:37 p.m. ET)

Feel like starting off the new week with the pursuit of a non-jackpot carryover? We recommend checking out Finger Lakes, where the 50-cent Pick 5 has tossed up a $5,930 prize pool.

The sequence spans Race 4 through Race 8, and if you’re assuming small fields are on tap (Finger Lakes is a small track, after all), you had best think again. The Pick 5 contains 46 horses (averaging 9.2 per race) before scratches, which equates to 61,600 possible outcomes.

The feature event of the afternoon is the $29,900 Shesastonecoldfox S. for two-year-old fillies sprinting six furlongs on dirt. With only seven entries, the Shesastonecoldfox features the smallest field in the Pick 5 sequence. Mathematically speaking, there’s a 14% chance that picking any horse at random will produce the winner.

Of course, we don’t have to pick by chance, and morning line favorite #3 Warsaichi (1-1) is a viable single with far better than a 14% shot at victory. It’s not a stretch to think Warsaichi has an 80% or even 90% chance at winning the Shesastonecoldfox.

What’s not to like? Warsaichi’s form lines are excellent. Granted, she finished second in her debut behind #1 Small Pebbles (8-1), who is back for another round in the Shesastonecoldfox. But Warsaichi has improved by leaps and bounds since then. She obliterated a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight on Sept. 5 at Finger Lakes, beating a couple of next-out winners by 7 1/2 lengths. Then on Sept. 26 at Finger Lakes, Warsaichi squared off against New York-bred rivals in the 5 1/2-furlong Lady Finger S. and led all the way to win by 4 1/4 lengths.

With Brisnet Speed ratings of 80 and 76 from her two victories, Warsaichi is the fastest filly in the Shesastonecoldfox field. She also has red-hot connections in her corner; trainer Chris Englehart is a 31% winner at Finger Lakes this meet, while jockey John Davila Jr. has won at a 28% rate. Together, they’ve teamed up to win 26% of the time.

Warsaichi has already defeated four of her six rivals in the Shesastonecoldfox field, so if the daughter of War Dancer runs her typical race, she can cruise to victory as a short-priced single.

Good luck!