Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Oct. 26

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, Oct. 26 at Delaware Park and Presque Isle Downs, along with horses to play in a pair of lucrative Keeneland carryovers.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Keeneland Daily Double Down: Hit at least two double wagers (only applies to minimum $1 base wagers) to unlock a 50% bonus on all winning double wagers at Keeneland for the day, up to $50 daily.

Picks and Plays

Delaware Park: Race 2: $10,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile, 1:00 p.m. ET)

#2 Dart (2-1) has hit the board a couple of times against $25,000 maiden claiming company and recently came home third in a $16,000 maiden claimer at Delaware, earning a career-best 69 Brisnet Speed rating.

None of Dart’s rivals in this $10,000 maiden claimer have posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 58, so dropping in class should send Dart to the winner’s circle.

#4 River Full (3-1), third in a $20,000 maiden claimer racing one mile at Delaware last month, can complete a cold exacta for hot trainer Gary Capuano.

• $25 Exacta: 2 with 4

Delaware Park: Race 4: $25,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs, 2:00 p.m. ET)

Trainer Cathal Lynch has compiled a stellar 5-for-13 (38%) record debuting two-year-olds at Delaware Park this year. This powerful angle identifies Lynch’s unraced juvenile #2 Filtered Light (4-1) as a key threat to win her debut.

A daughter of Malibu Moon (who sires a respectable 13% winners from first-time starters), Filtered Light has put together a lengthy work tab in preparation for his first start. Throw in hot jockey Angel Cruz (a 75% winner teaming up with Lynch over the last two months), and Filtered Light is worth betting to win and keying on top in the exacta.

• $20 to win on #2 Filtered Light
• $10 Exacta: 2 with 1
  Total: $30

Presque Isle Downs: Race 7: H.B.P.A. S. (one mile and 70 yards on Tapeta, 4:12 p.m. ET)

#10 Christmas Diamond (3-1) has won three of her five starts since transferring to Presque Isle Downs under the care of trainer Teresa Connelly. She’s been especially strong in her last two starts, rallying to win the 1 1/16-mile Gem City S. over a next-out winner before adding a $62,500 allowance optional claimer to her resume.

Those victories produced strong Brisnet Speed ratings of 91 and 93, stamping Christmas Diamond among the fastest horses in the H.B.P.A. field. There are many talented turf horses entered in this race, but Christmas Diamond’s proven affinity for the Presque Isle Tapeta may win the day.

We’ll place a win bet on Christmas Diamond and key her over #1 Ready To Venture (9-2) in the exacta.

• $20 to win on #10 Christmas Diamond
• $10 Exacta: 10 with 1
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Keeneland, Race 3: $30,468 Pick 6 carryover (2:04 p.m. ET)
Keeneland, Race 8: $8,352 Super High 5 carryover (4:44 p.m. ET)

A pair of non-jackpot carryovers are up for grabs on Wednesday at Keeneland. The $1 Pick 6 has tossed up a lucrative $30,468 prize pool, while the $1 Super High 5 has tossed up a smaller (but mathematically easier to hit) $8,352 carryover.

It’s tough to find a viable single in the Pick 6, which contains 59 entries and 836,352 possible outcomes before scratches. The best chance might come right off the bat in Race 3, a $75,000 maiden claimer for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs on dirt. #2 Argumental (5-2) posted a field-topping 77 Brisnet Speed rating when finishing fourth over this distance and class level during the spring at Oaklawn Park, a race in which she chased and advanced into a hot pace before weakening slightly down the homestretch.

Argumental hasn’t run since then, but she’s cranked out a bevy of fast workouts in preparation for her return. Trainer Mike Maker wins at a solid 17% rate with horses coming off layoffs of 90 days or more, so if Argumental has improved at all during her time off, she should be tough to beat in the Pick 6 opener.

The Pick 6 wraps up in Race 8, a $40,000 maiden claimer which is also the event in which the Super High 5 is available to play. An 11-horse field has turned out for the seven-furlong dirt dash, which means there are 55,440 possible Super High 5 outcomes.

It’s a tricky race to handicap because morning line favorite #3 Master Game (5-2) doesn’t look like the most reliable contender on paper. The three-year-old gelding ran second in a maiden special weight as a juvenile last year, but three runs against similar competition this season have seen Master Game miss the board by double-digit margins. He ran last in a 6 1/2-furlong turf test at Kentucky Downs last month, and it’s unclear whether dropping in class will be sufficient to trigger a form turnaround.

Perhaps we can beat Master Game with longshot #6 Rough Sketch (15-1). The four-year-old gelding didn’t show much in his debut for a $75,000 maiden claiming tag sprinting seven furlongs at Churchill Downs, starting slowly and failing to rally while finishing ninth. But Ben Colebrook’s 7% win rate with first-time starters improves to 11% with second-time starters, and Rough Sketch is eligible to show more early speed while adding blinkers. Rough Sketch isn’t dropping down in class as sharply as Master Game, but with only run one under his belt, Rough Sketch arguably has more upside than his younger rival.

Good luck!