Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Oct. 27
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, Oct. 27 at Presque Isle Downs and Delaware Park, along with a horse to single in Aqueduct’s $159,032 Pick 6 carryover.
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Picks and Plays
Presque Isle Downs: Race 4: $8,500 Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 2:51 p.m. ET)
#1 Merino Wool (5-2) is the morning line favorite after rattling off three straight victories against $5,000 and $8,500 claiming company at Presque Isle, but all three of those victories came running one mile and 70 yards. Can she extend her winning streak while cutting back to six furlongs?
#5 Cherokee Chatter (9-2) has a chance to surprise. A tried-and-true sprinter, Cherokee Chatter rattled off consecutive victories in a $6,250 claimer and a $10,000 starter optional claimer sprinting at Presque Isle, then finished second in a six-furlong allowance.
Jockey Gaddiel Martinez and trainer Cathy Rozantz have teamed up to win at a 33% rate over the last two months, so at 9-2 Cherokee Chatter is worth betting to win and playing over Merino Wool in the exacta.
- $20 to win on #5 Cherokee Chatter
- $10 Exacta: 5 with 1
Total: $30
Presque Isle Downs: Race 5: $5,000 Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 3:18 p.m. ET)
#1 Vive El Momento (12-1) is conditioned by hot trainer Juan Gotera, who has gone 3-for-7 (43%) at Presque Isle over the last month. Vive El Momento doesn’t own the highest Brisnet Speed ratings in Thursday’s field, but she might be a deceptively good fit for this class level.
Our man @J_Keelerman's exploring the trainer stats found in @Brisnet's Ultimate Past Performances...
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Vive El Momento faltered to fifth place in a $6,250 claimer racing one mile at Presque Isle last month, but two starts back (in her lone sprint run to date at Presque Isle), Vive El Momento rallied nicely to finish second in a six-furlong $6,250 claimer. Dropping to the $5,000 level may put her in the hunt for victory.
Let’s place a large win bet on Vive El Momento and call it a day.
- $30 to win on #1 Vive El Momento
Delaware Park: Race 7: Allowance (5 1/2 furlongs, 3:30 p.m. ET)
In his first start since being claimed by trainer Ronald Abrams, #1 Powerfully Built (6-1) ran strongly in a $20,000 starter optional claimer dashing six furlongs over this track. The son of champion sprinter Big Drama tracked a solid early pace before taking command to win by 1 3/4 lengths.
That victory produced a career-best 102 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest figure posted by any horse in Thursday’s field. If Powerfully Built repeats the feat, he can win right back over the consistent sprinter #5 Aristocratic (9-5).
- $20 to win on #1 Powerfully Built
- $10 Exacta: 1 with 5
Total: $30
Carryover Watch
Aqueduct, Race 4: $159,032 Pick 6 carryover (2:12 p.m. ET)
The $1 Pick 6 has gone unsolved at Aqueduct for two straight racing days, which means there’s a lucrative double carryover worth $159,032 on the table for Thursday’s card.
A deep sequence is on the agenda. Even if you toss out the 16 also-eligible and main-track-only entrants, the Pick 6 contains 58 horses (averaging 9.7 per race) and 756,000 possible outcomes. The six-figure carryover should draw plenty of new wagering dollars, but with a sequence this competitive, there’s at least a small chance the Pick 6 will go unsolved for a third straight day.
Whether the Pick 6 is hit or not may come down to Race 6, a maiden special weight for New York-bred juveniles. A field of 10 has turned out for the six-furlong dirt sprint and #10 D’ont Lose Cruz (9-5) figures to be a single on many tickets. Certainly we recommend building tickets around the gelding.
What is a single, and why are they valuable?
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A son of Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Always Dreaming, D’ont Lose Cruz ran a big race in his debut over this track, distance, and class level on Sept. 29. Overlooked at odds of 27-1, D’ont Lose Cruz carved out the pace and opened up a two-length lead in midstretch before weakening late to finish second by a head.
That performance was noteworthy since D’ont Lose Cruz is trained by Richard Schosberg, who has gone 0-for-37 saddling first-time starters since 2015. D’ont Lose Cruz ran better than usual for a Schosberg debuting runner, and since Schosberg wins at a lofty 25% rate with second-time starters, it’s not unrealistic to think D’ont Lose Cruz will improve in his second try.
Even a repeat of D’ont Lose Cruz’s debut might be sufficient to visit the winner’s circle. The 82 Brisnet Speed rating he posted is only one point lower than the 83 rating that stands as the par winning figure for Thursday’s conditions. Throw in three-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz (a 22% winner at Aqueduct this meet), and D’ont Lose Cruz looks ready to romp as a short-priced single.
Good luck!
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