Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Oct. 28

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for a trio of stakes on Friday, Oct. 28 at Aqueduct and Keeneland, along with horses to single in the $38,250 Pick 5 carryover at Golden Gate Fields.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Keeneland Daily Double Down: Hit at least two double wagers (only applies to minimum $1 base wagers) to unlock a 50% bonus on all winning double wagers at Keeneland for the day, up to $50 daily.
• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in eligible races at Rosehill (Australia).
• Exacta Insurance: Receive refunds on exacta bets (up to $10) if your two selected horses finish in the first three home (but not in the winning order) in select races at Santa Anita. Offer applies to straight exacta bets only.
• $15,000 Everest Carnival Leaderboard Competition: Place $10+ win bets at a selected Australian track each Friday from Sept. 30 through Oct. 28 to earn points and win your share of prizes worth a total of $15,000.
• Woodbine Mohawk Breeders’ Crown Stakes Challenge: Make a winning $10+ win bet in all 12 Breeders’ Crown championship races at Mohawk on Friday and Saturday to win your share of a $10,000 jackpot.
• Woodbine Mohawk $5,000 Pick 5 Hit It and Split It: Hit the Pick 5 on Friday or Saturday at Mohawk to split a $5,000 daily bonus jackpot.

Picks and Plays

Belmont at Aqueduct: Race 3: Allowance (1 1/8 miles, 1:40 p.m. ET)

#5 Tizzy in the Sky (3-5) is the odds-on morning line choice after cruising to a 5 3/4-length maiden special weight victory racing one mile at Aqueduct last month. But the three-year-old filly has never faced winners nor raced around two turns.

#2 Wasp (8-5) has an upset chance. She placed in the Yaddo H. during the summer at Saratoga and has cracked the trifecta in her last five starts, including four allowance events. Her Brisnet Speed ratings are solid, and trainer Todd Pletcher wins at a 23% rate in allowances.

• $25 Exacta: 2 with 5

Belmont at Aqueduct: Race 8: Chelsey Flower S. (1 1/16 miles on turf, 4:22 p.m. ET)

#1 Tax Implication (1-1) is the clear morning line favorite after romping to a debut victory at Monmouth Park for trainer Chad Brown. But I prefer the chances of the other Brown trainee, #2 Implicated (5-2).

Implicated finished third in her debut sprinting over the Saratoga dirt before switching to turf and stretching out over 1 1/16 miles at Aqueduct, where she rallied gamely to prevail by a head in a maiden special weight. High-percentage jockey Flavien Prat (a 24% winner on turf) retains the mount.

We’ll bet Implicated to win and count on Tax Implications to complete the exacta.

• $15 to win on #2 Implicated
• $15 Exacta: 2 with 1
  Total: $30

Keeneland: Race 8: Valley View S. (G3, 1 1/16 miles on turf, 4:44 p.m. ET)

The recent form of #8 Bubble Rock (15-1) has been muddied by a try on dirt in the Fantasy S. (G3) and a tilt over the tricky Kentucky Downs turf course in the Music City S., her first run off a layoff.

But Bubble Rock is a thoroughly capable turf and synthetic runner on her best day. She won the six-furlong Matron S. (G3) over the Belmont Park lawn last fall and showcased her ability running long when nabbing the Cincinnati Trophy S. racing one mile on Tapeta at Turfway Park.

Bubble Rock can bounce back to peak form while stretching out in distance for her second start off the layoff, putting her in the hunt for victory at double-digit odds. #1 California Angel (7-2) and #5 Dolce Zel (5-2) are logical candidates to complete the exacta.

• $12 to win on #8 Bubble Rock
• $4 Exacta: 8 with 1,5 ($8)
  Total: $20

Carryover Watch

Golden Gate Fields, Race 4: $38,250 Pick 5 carryover (6:24 p.m. ET)

One of the most enticing non-jackpot carryovers worth pursuing on Friday can be found at Golden Gate Fields, where the 50-cent Late Pick 5 features a $38,250 prize pool.

We’ve analyzed the entries and identified a pair of live longshots worth including on your tickets:

Race 4: Allowance (one mile on Tapeta): #6 Dr Pescado (5-1)

In a compact field containing half a dozen three-year-olds, Dr Pescado offers appeal as the 5-1 fourth choice on the morning line.

Dr Pescado showed promise when he wired his debut over the Golden Gate Tapeta by 7 1/4 lengths last summer, and he later won the six-furlong Golden Nugget S. and ran third in the one-mile Gold Rush S. All was well until Dr Pescado tackled the 1 1/8-mile El Camino Real Derby on the Road to the Kentucky Derby; he failed to contend at any point and finished last out of 11 horses.

Dr Pescado posted one timed workout about two weeks after the El Camino Real Derby, then went to the sidelines for 3 1/2 months. He returned to serious training in June and has put together a busy work tab in preparation for his comeback run. Dr Pescado will race on Lasix for the first time in Friday’s allowance and is eligible to produce a winning effort while dropping down the class ladder.

Race 8: $8,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta): #2 Tiger’s Arrow (15-1)

We’ll concede that Tiger’s Arrow hasn’t show much in two starts since returning from a 7 1/2-month layoff. He ran last of six in a $20,000 maiden claimer at Los Alamitos, then split the field to finish fourth out of seven in an $8,000 maiden claimer at Fresno.

But both of those runs came on dirt, and Tiger’s Arrow may improve while switching to Tapeta. Last winter, he posted a solid 77 Brisnet Speed rating when finishing fifth in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight over the Golden Gate Tapeta. He’s technically the fastest horse in Friday’s field (none of his rivals have posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 70), so Tiger’s Arrow can’t be dismissed from contention. Competing in an $8,000 maiden claimer on Tapeta might be the recipe for victory.

Good luck!