Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Oct. 3

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Monday, Oct. 3 at Presque Isle Downs and Parx Racing, along with horses to single in the $16,219 Pick 5 carryover at Mountaineer.

Picks and Plays

Presque Isle Downs: Race 2: $20,000 Maiden Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta, 1:57 p.m. ET)

#7 Mom’s Town (7-2) ran second in her lone dirt run to date, which was a $25,000 maiden claimer racing one mile at Colonial Downs. As a daughter of champion sprinter Speightstown, Mom’s Town shouldn’t mind cutting back in distance for high-percentage trainer Larry Rivelli, who has gone 7-for-13 (54%) at Presque Isle Downs this year.

#1 Video Star (5-2) and #5 La Panda (3-1) can battle for exacta and trifecta honors.

• $10 Exacta: 7 with 1,5 ($20)
• $5 Trifecta: 7 with 1,5 with 1,5 ($10)
  Total: $30

Parx Racing: Race 8: Bucks County S. (1 1/8 miles on turf, 4:05 p.m. ET)

The multiple graded stakes-placed #7 Wolfie’s Dynaghost (6-5) took a step forward in his first start as a gelding last month. Favored to win the 1 1/16-mile Bert Allen S. at Colonial Downs, Wolfie’s Dynaghost led all the way to defeat 2021 Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) runner-up Largent by three lengths.

Wolfie’s Dynaghost has also run well on dirt in the past, so whether this race stays on turf or is rained off the grass, Wolfie’s Dynaghost is the one to beat. We’ll outline two wagering strategies, depending on how the weather unfolds:

If the Bucks County stays on turf…

• $20 Exacta: 7 with 4

If the Bucks County is transferred to dirt…

• $10 Exacta: 7 with 2,8 ($20)

Parx Racing: Race 9: Liberty Bell S. (6 1/2 furlongs, 4:33 p.m. ET)

#5 Fortheluvofbourbon (8-5) boasts a fantastic 16-10-1-3 record at Parx, which includes four consecutive victories dating back to April. Last time out, the red-hot sprinter trounced the six-furlong Banjo Picker Sprint S. by four lengths over six-time stakes winner #2 Beren (5-2), earning a career-best 102 Brisnet Speed rating.

A typical performance from Fortheluvofbourbon can lead to a fifth straight victory. We’ll look for Beren, #7 Repo Rocks (9-2), and #1 Five Dreams (15-1) to battle for exacta and trifecta honors.

• $10 Exacta: 5 with 7
• $5 Trifecta: 5 with 7 with 1,2 ($10)
• $5 Trifecta: 5 with 1,2 with 7 ($10)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Mountaineer, Race 4: $16,219 Pick 5 carryover (8:15 p.m. ET)

If you wish to kick off the new week by pursuing a non-jackpot carryover, Mountaineer is ready to oblige. The West Virginia racetrack has tossed up an enticing $16,219 Pick 5 prize pool.

The sequence spans Race 4 through Race 8 and contains 41 entries (averaging 8.2 per race) before scratches, which equates to 34,496 possible outcomes.

The best chance for a single may come right off the bat in Race 4, a $4,000 claimer for fillies and mares who haven’t won two races since Oct. 3, 2021. The distance is 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, and only seven horses have been entered.

The majority of the entrants are tried-and-true $4,000 claimers seemingly without much upside for improvement. That stands in contrast to morning line favorite #4 Mariposa d’Oro (7-5). The five-year-old daughter of Shackleford has been facing tougher competition at Thistledown, most notably coming home second in a $16,000 claimer sprinting six furlongs two starts back.

Mariposa d’Oro brings competitive Brisnet Speed ratings to the table and figures to relish dropping down to the $4,000 claiming level for hot trainer Nestor Rivera, whose 17% win rate for the year jumps to 31% when saddling starters at Mountaineer. For all these reasons, Mariposa d’Oro looms as a viable single.

A similar class drop figures to work wonders for #3 Frankie Barone (6-5) in Race 5, a $4,000 claimer for horses who have won’t since Oct. 3, 2021 or horses who have never won two races. Frankie Barone has hit the board in four of his last five starts against tougher competition, even finishing second in a $16,000 claimer racing one mile at Thistledown.

Frankie Barone’s Brisnet Speed ratings are flashy, and trainer Shane Meyers has gone 5-for-11 (45%) at Mountaineer this meet, so all signs suggest Frankie Barone will be tough while descending in class for Monday’s one-mile and 70-yard heat. Keep in mind, horses dropping two or more levels down the class ladder win at a 33% rate for Meyers, so Frankie Barone has the appearance of a trustworthy single.

Good luck!