Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Oct. 31

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Monday, Oct. 31 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Mahoning Valley, including a horse to single in the $856 Pick 5 carryover at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

Picks and Plays

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 2:30 p.m. ET)

#5 Cha Cha Larry (6-5) is the morning line favorite after finishing second in a 5 1/2-furlong dash over this track and class level on Oct. 4, earning a 68 Brisnet Speed rating while finishing 8 1/2 lengths ahead of fourth-place finisher #2 Bumpy (2-1).

But on Aug. 23, it was Bumpy who got the better of Cha Cha Larry, finishing second with a 64 Brisnet Speed rating while Cha Cha Larry came home 6 1/4 lengths behind in fifth place. Who’s to say the form lines won’t flip back and allow Bumpy to take top honors at nearly twice as high a price as Cha Cha Larry?

We’ll play this race accordingly, betting Bumpy over Cha Cha Larry in a cold exacta.

• $20 Exacta: 2 with 5

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 2: Allowance (six furlongs, 3:01 p.m. ET)

#4 Nobody Listens (8-5) stretched out his pacesetting speed fairly well in the 1 1/16-mile To Much Coffee S. at Horseshoe Indianapolis earlier this month, staying on to finish second. But sprinting is the true strong suit for Nobody Listens; he’s won five of his last eight sprint starts (including the Brickyard S. at Horseshoe Indianapolis) and is 2-for-2 dashing six furlongs.

Cutting back to six furlongs and dropping into the allowance ranks should send Nobody Listens to the winner’s circle over #5 Flowerpecker (6-1) and #6 Chandana (2-1).

• $10 Exacta: 4 with 5,6 ($20)
• $5 Trifecta: 4 with 5,6 with 5,6 ($10)
  Total: $30

Mahoning Valley: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs, 4:01 p.m. ET)

#4 Lambrusco (5-2) is a logical favorite after finishing second twice over this class level at Thistledown. But with a 0-for-3 record, Lambrusco seems unlikely to show more than incremental improvement on Monday.

The opposite may be true for #9 Seeyouinmotown (6-1). The daughter of Tapiture has only run once, finishing sixth (6 1/2 lengths behind Lambrusco) in an Oct. 5 maiden heat at Thistledown. But trainer Michael Rone wins at a 17% rate with second-time starters (far better than his 8% strike rate with debuting runners), so Seeyouinmotown is eligible to improve significantly in her second try.

Let’s bet Seeyouinmotown to win and key her over Lambrusco in the exacta:

• $20 to win on #9 Seeyouinmotown
• $10 Exacta: 9 with 4
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Horseshoe Indianapolis, Race 4: $856 Pick 5 carryover (4:03 p.m. ET)

The racing week at Horseshoe Indianapolis kicks off with a small but nonetheless enticing $856 carryover up for grabs in the 50-cent Pick 5.

The carryover is appealing for a couple of reasons. For starters, it’s a non-jackpot prize pool set to be split equally among all winning bettors—no unique winning ticket required. For another, the Pick 5 features an ultra-low takeout rate of 11.99%.

The tricky part will be assembling a winning ticket. The Pick 5 races have all drawn a minimum of nine entries, and there are 53 entries (averaging 10.6 per race) in total, which equates to 126,360 possible outcomes. Uncovering the winning combination is unlikely to be a walk in the park.

The good news is, we can slice the number of outcomes to consider down to 14,040 if we’re willing to single #1 Anchor Manne (2-1) in Race 4, the opening leg of the Pick 5.

Race 4 is a maiden special weight for Indiana-bred juveniles sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, and the conditions should suit Anchor Manne just fine. The gray gelding ran second in a six-furlong dash over this track and class level on Oct. 10, tracking the early pace before finishing up nicely to post a 68 Brisnet Speed rating.

That 68 Brisnet Speed rating is eye-catching for a couple of reasons. None of his rivals have posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 63, so Anchor Manne is the fastest horse in the field. Furthermore, the par winning figure for Monday’s race conditions is a 66, so Anchor Manne is already fast enough to win a typical race over this track, distance, and class level.

There isn’t a crazy amount of speed in Monday’s field, so Anchor Manne—coming off a quick three-furlong workout at Keeneland on Oct. 21—should be able to secure a forward position while breaking from the rail. Post 1 produces a solid 13% winners sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs over the Horseshoe Indianapolis main track, so it’s not hard to envision a scenario where Anchor Manne breaks alertly, works out a favorable trip, and cruises to victory as a Pick 5 single.

Good luck!