Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Oct. 5

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, Oct. 5 at Presque Isle Downs and Horseshoe Indianapolis, including exactas for the Miss Indiana S. and Indiana Futurity.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in eligible races at Happy Valley (Hong Kong).

Picks and Plays

Presque Isle Downs: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on Tapeta, 3:18 p.m. ET)

#10 Zip Code Envy (5-2) is the morning line favorite after finishing second and third in her first two starts sprinting over this track and class level. But in terms of Brisnet Speed ratings, the Timothy Hamm trainee doesn’t hold much of an advantage over #2 Heavenly Hash (7-2).

Heavenly Hash ran evenly to finish fifth in her debut sprinting six furlongs against maiden special weight company at Presque Isle Downs, earning a 66 Brisnet Speed rating only four points lower than Zip Code Envy’s best. Heavenly Hash is adding blinkers for her second start (a 40% winning move for trainer Ryan Walsh), so we’ll bet on Heavenly Hash to spring a mild surprise in her second start.

• $15 to win on #2 Heavenly Hash
• $15 Exacta: 2 with 10
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 6: Miss Indiana S. (one mile and 70 yards, 5:05 p.m. ET)

#11 Hot Little Thing (8-5) looms as a possible standout in this two-turn route for Indiana-bred juvenile fillies. After finishing a close second in her debut, Hot Little Thing trounced a maiden special weight by seven lengths over a next-out winner, then smashed the Back Home Again S. against fellow Indiana-bred fillies by 14 1/2 lengths.

The latter performance yielded an 87 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest figure in the Miss Indiana field by seven points. Hot Little Thing has never run farther than six furlongs, but trainer Rodolphe Brisset (an epic 46% winner at Horseshoe Indianapolis this year) strikes at a 23% rate with horses running long for the first time, so the stats suggest Hot Little Thing won’t have any trouble stretching out in distance.

#6 Corningstone (7-2) and #9 E’s Magic (4-1) can battle for exacta honors.

• $15 Exacta: 11 with 6,9 ($30)

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 8: Indiana Futurity (one mile and 70 yards, 6:09 p.m. ET)

#8 Good Forever (7-2) and #5 Healing Waters (9-2) ran 1-2 in the six-furlong Circle City S. at Horseshoe Indianapolis last month, but they arguably benefited from a contested pace, and there's no guarantee they'll repeat their 1-2 finish while stretching around two turns for the first time.

#9 Fierce Justice (6-1) is an interesting alternative. He raced a bit closer to the early pace in the Circle City before getting shuffled back to seventh place. Fierce Justice ultimately re-rallied to finish fourth, and his pedigree is geared toward success around two turns, so a clean trip on Wednesday may lead to an improved performance.

Let's play Fierce Justice with Good Forever and Healing Waters in the exacta.

• $5 Exacta: 9 with 5,8 ($10)
• $5 Exacta: 5,8 with 9 ($10)
  Total: $20

Good luck!