Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Oct. 6

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, Oct. 6 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Thistledown, along with a horse to single in the $71,284 Pick 6 carryover at Belmont at the Big A.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• $1,000 Hoosier Park Pick 4 Hit It and Split It: Hit the early Pick 4 at Hoosier Park on any Thursday from July 14 through Oct. 13 to win your share of a $1,000 weekly jackpot.

Picks and Plays

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 1: Allowance (six furlongs, 2:10 p.m. ET)

#2 Pachanga Loca (2-1), a gate-to-wire maiden winner at Gulfstream Park, is a logical favorite after running second with a sharp 81 Brisnet Speed rating in a six-furlong allowance at Colonial Downs. #3 Carlotuk (4-1), who finished third in the Colonial allowance, is another logical contender.

But don’t dismiss #5 Flamand (5-1) from consideration. After finishing second in her debut behind next-out stakes winner Hot Little Thing, Flamand broke her maiden in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Horseshoe Indianapolis, leading all the way to score by 2 1/2 lengths with a respectable 74 Brisnet Speed rating.

Let’s combine Pachanga Loca, Carlotuk, and Flamand in exacta and trifecta tickets:

• $5 Exacta: 2,5 with 2,3,5 ($20)
• $2.50 Trifecta: 2,5 with 2,3,5 with 2,3,5 ($10)
  Total: $30

Thistledown: Race 5: Emerald Necklace S. (six furlongs, 2:50 p.m. ET)

#6 Driven for Success (5-2) finished second in her debut over this track and distance, then came back to trounce a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Thistledown by 3 1/4 lengths. That triumph produced a 67 Brisnet Speed rating, tied for the highest figure in the Emerald Necklace field.

Driven for Success is conditioned by high-percentage trainer Jeffrey Radosevich and will be ridden in her stakes debut by Thistledown’s runaway leading jockey Luis Rivera, who has won at a 23% rate teaming up with Radosevich over the last two months. We’ll count on Driven for Success to lead the way home over #1 Express Fashion (7-2) and #2 Ronni’s Wind (5-1).

• $15 Exacta: 6 with 1,2 ($30)

Thistledown: Race 6: Greg Veit Scarlet and Gray H. (six furlongs, 3:20 p.m. ET)

Four-time stakes winner #1 Amadevil (8-5) boasts a 7-for-7 record at Thistledown and dominated this race by 6 3/4 lengths in 2021. The speedy four-year-old filly enters off a 5 1/4-length score in the six-furlong Michael G. Mackey Memorial Angenora S. at Thistledown and should be tough to catch if she brings her A-game.

#8 Wine Me Up Baby (7-2), who finished second in the Angenora, can battle with runaway Thistledown allowance winner #3 Box Step (15-1) for second place.

• $20 Exacta: 1 with 8
• $10 Exacta: 1 with 3
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Belmont at the Big A, Race 4: $71,284 Pick 6 carryover (2:12 p.m. ET)

There’s a $71,284 Pick 6 carryover on the table for Thursday at Aqueduct, but be forewarned: there’s a good chance no one will hit the $1 wager, leading to a double carryover for Friday.

The Pick 6 spans Race 4 through Race 9. The fields are large for the most part and stuffed with also-eligible and main-track only entrants, so there’s a lot to decipher beforehand and plenty more to analyze once race-day changes are in. Before scratches, there are 73 entries (averaging 12.2 horses per race) and 2,283,008 possible outcomes.

If there’s a single worth building tickets around in this massively competitive sequence, it might be #4 Mosienko (2-1) in Race 8, a $62,500 allowance optional claimer with a complicated set of conditions. The 6 1/2-furlong dirt dash is open to fillies and mares who have never won $18,000 twice other than maiden, claiming, starter, or state-bred allowance… or fillies and mares who have never won three races… or fillies and mares entered for the optional claiming price of $62,500. Yikes!

The conditions are complicated, but they’ve allowed Mosienko to enter, and she looks like a perfect fit for this field. The five-year-old mare has rattled off three consecutive victories on the New York circuit, trouncing a pair of $45,000 allowance optional claimers for New York-breds at Saratoga before crushing a 6 1/2-furlong allowance at Belmont at the Big A by four lengths.

Mosienko boasts a solid 8-3-2-0 lifetime record over this track and brings sharp Brisnet Speed ratings to the table. Two starts back, she threw down a 106 Brisnet Speed rating that tops Thursday’s field by seven points. Mosienko is facing only six rivals at Belmont at the Big A and is picking up high-percentage jockey Flavien Prat (a 24% winner this year), so there’s a lot to like about her chances. Throw in the fact she’s sticking to the track and distance of her latest victory, and Mosienko looks ready to pick up her fourth win in a row.

Good luck!