Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of April 12

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, April 12 at Keeneland, along with horses to play in a pair of non-jackpot carryovers at Keeneland and Tampa Bay Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• 10x Points on Harness Racing: On Mondays, Tuesdays, and Wednesdays, receive 10x reward points on all wagers at any harness track.
• $10,000 Keeneland Spring Meet Leaderboard: Place $10+ win bets at Keeneland from April 7-23 (excluding April 9) to earn points and compete for your share of $10,000 in prizes.
• Hoosier Park $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in any eligible race on Wednesday at Hoosier Park.
• Keeneland Daily Double Down: Receive a 50% bonus on all winning double wagers at Keeneland on Wednesdays and Thursdays (also Friday, April 28).

Picks and Plays

Keeneland: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (4 1/2 furlongs, 1:32 p.m. ET)

#9 Happy Baytown (6-1) has put together a flashy work tab in preparation for her first start. She was particularly sharp on March 29, breezing half a mile from the Keeneland starting gate in a bullet :46 4/5.

That marked Happy Baytown’s third bullet workout of the month. Trainer Paul McEntee compiled a solid 5-1-1-0 record debuting juveniles during the 2022 Keeneland spring meet, so Happy Baytown has a shot to outrun expectations in her first start.

Let’s bet Happy Baytown to win, box her in the exacta with logical favorite #12 Hibernacle (2-1), and single Happy Baytown to start a double wager capitalizing on the Keeneland Daily Double Down promotion.

Selections

• #9 Happy Baytown (6-1)
• #12 Hibernacle (2-1)
• #7 Greenteaze (5-1)

Wagers

• $12 to win on #9 Happy Baytown
• $6 Exacta: 12 with 9
• $4 Exacta: 9 with 12
• $4 Double: 9 with 3,4 ($8)
  Total: $30

Keeneland: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 2:04 p.m. ET)

Four-year-old #3 Amaretti (1-1) is a logical favorite after finishing second in her debut at Belmont Park 10 months ago. The winner, Union Lake, returned to win an allowance and finish third in the Prioress (G2). But Amaretti hasn’t run since and isn’t necessarily unbeatable off the long layoff.

#4 The Princess Says (7-2) is a logical alternative. In a six-furlong maiden special weight on March 16 at Fair Grounds, she dueled for the lead through quick fractions before staying on to finish second. The 80 Brisnet Speed rating she posted is only two points below the 82 Amaretti put up on debut.

The Princess Says is only three years old and still has upside for improvement under four-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz. We’ll bet her to win, key her over Amaretti in a cold exacta, and use The Princess Says and Amaretti together to conclude a double wager.

Selections

• #4 The Princess Says (7-2)
• #3 Amaretti (1-1)
• #5 Kid’s Last Laugh (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #4 The Princess Says
• $10 Exacta: 4 with 3
  Total: $30

Keeneland: Race 5: Allowance (1 1/8 miles on turf, 3:08 p.m. ET)

#3 Jarreau (3-1) was in good form last year, cracking the exacta in four straight allowances on dirt and turf. He ran especially well in a 1 5/16-mile contest over the Kentucky Downs turf course, rallying to finish second by a head.

Jarreau has shown tactical speed in the past and has the potential to be forwardly placed while returning from a layoff in Wednesday’s largely paceless field. If a slow tempo unfolds, Jarreau can parlay that advantage into victory under jockey Irad Ortiz, a 43% winner teaming up with trainer Mike Maker over the last two months.

#8 Dripping Gold (5-2), a top-four finisher in his last four allowance tries, can complete the exacta.

Selections

• #3 Jarreau (3-1)
• #8 Dripping Gold (5-2)
• #6 What Say Thee (20-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #3 Jarreau
• $5 Exacta: 3 with 8
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 5: $23,431 Pick 5 carryover (2:20 p.m. ET)

Wednesday’s 50-cent Late Pick 5 at Tampa Bay Downs features a non-jackpot carryover to chase. The prize pool is $23,431, an enticing midweek number.

If you’re looking for a single to build tickets around, you might want to check out Race 5, the opening leg of the sequence. Race 5 is a maiden special weight for three-year-old fillies sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, and morning line favorite #1 Immortallove (6-5) is a compelling favorite.

The par winning Brisnet Speed rating for this type of race is 81, and Immortallove exceeded that number in her March 26 debut over the Tampa Bay Downs main track. Tackling a six-furlong maiden special weight, Immortallove pressed a quick pace before staying on to finish second with an 84 Brisnet Speed rating.

Immortallove is adding Lasix for her second start and should be mighty tough to catch. She’s facing only five rivals, including four first-time starters conditioned by trainers who win no more than 10% of the time with debuting runners. Taking all of these factors together, Immortallove is a logical single to start the Pick 5.

Keeneland: Race 8: $9,323 Super High 5 carryover (4:44 p.m. ET)

The final race on Wednesday at Keeneland brings a $9,323 non-jackpot carryover in the $1 Super High 5.

The afternoon finale is Race 8, a $10,000 starter allowance taking place over seven furlongs on dirt. The morning line favorite is #1 Caramel Chip (6-5), and the five-year-old veteran looks tough to beat.

Caramel Chip has been in hot form sprinting at Gulfstream Park this winter. After trouncing an $8,000 claimer by 2 3/4 lengths (earning an 88 Brisnet Speed rating), Caramel Chip finished second in a pair of $16,000 starter optional claimers, earning Brisnet Speed ratings of 88 and 94.

Subsequently transferred to the barn of Jose D’Angelo, Caramel Chip delivered a career-best performance in another $16,000 starter optional claimer on March 23. After tracking the pace from second place, Caramel Chip rocketed his final furlong in approximately :11.71 seconds to get up and win by half a length with a 96 Brisnet Speed rating.

A repeat of that performance can send Caramel Chip to the Keeneland winner’s circle under Irad Ortiz, a 29% winner teaming up with D’Angelo over the last two months.

Good luck!