Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of April 19

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, April 19 at Keeneland and Tampa Bay Downs, including a horse to play in Keeneland’s $60,501 Pick 6 carryover and $20,691 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• 10x Points on Harness Racing: On Mondays, Tuesdays, and Wednesdays, receive 10x reward points on all wagers at any harness track.
• $10,000 Keeneland Spring Meet Leaderboard: Place $10+ win bets at Keeneland from April 7-23 (excluding April 9) to earn points and compete for your share of $10,000 in prizes.
• Horseshoe Indianapolis Opening Week $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in any eligible race at Horseshoe Indianapolis.
• Keeneland Daily Double Down: Receive a 50% bonus on all winning double wagers at Keeneland on Wednesdays and Thursdays (also Friday, April 28).

Picks and Plays

Keeneland: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (4 1/2 furlongs, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Trainer Wesley Ward has won the first three juveniles races of the Keeneland spring meet, and his first-time starters #6 Baraye (5-2) and #11 Late Nite Mistress (3-1) are logical contenders in this Wednesday sprint for two-year-old fillies. But perhaps #9 Youalmosthadme (6-1) can spring a surprise.

You can usually count on trainer John Hancock to saddle a winning juvenile during the Keeneland spring meet, and Youalmosthadme might be the one. She’s been cranking out fast workouts since February, culminating with a bullet half-mile from the Keeneland starting gate in :46. Throw in hot jockey Tyler Gaffalione (a 24% winner this meet), and Youalmosthadme is worth betting to win and keying over the Ward trainees in an exacta.

Selections

• #9 Youalmosthadme (6-1)
• #6 Baraye (5-2)
• #11 Late Nite Mistress (3-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #9 Youalmosthadme
• $10 Exacta: 9 with 6,11 ($20)
  Total: $40

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on turf, 2:20 p.m. ET)

#7 Aspen (8-5) has shown ability in her first two starts on grass. She debuted in a one-mile maiden special weight at Tampa Bay Downs and finished fourth in a race featuring a quick closing fraction. Then she ran fifth in a similar contest at Gulfstream Park.

Aspen isn’t meeting the toughest competition in her return to Tampa Bay Downs, and trainer Brendan Walsh has gone 5-for-19 (26%) saddling turf horses at Tampa since 2018. Let’s single Aspen to start a pair of double wagers, then place a small saver win bet in case the double bets fall short in the second leg.

Selections

• #7 Aspen (8-5)
• #5 Arroblue (2-1)
• #3 Red Tiara (6-1)

Wagers

• $13 Double: 7 with 7
• $7 Double: 7 with 4
• $10 to win on #7 Aspen
  Total: $30

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 6: $25,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs, 2:50 p.m. ET)

The experienced fillies and mares in this maiden claiming field don’t appear overly formidable, so let’s take a shot backing the first-time starter #4 Athena’s Wisdom (12-1).

Athena’s Wisdom has put together a decent work tab highlighted by half a mile in :48 4/5 at Tampa Bay Downs. Trainer Jose Chavez wins at a 17% rate with horses debuting in maiden claimers, and since 2018 Chavez has gone 2-for-10 (20%) debuting horses on dirt at Tampa Bay Downs. Throw in the fact Athena’s Wisdom is a daughter of Ride On Curlin (who sires a solid 17% winners from first-time starters), and her 12-1 morning line odds look quite appealing.

A win bet on Athena’s Wisdom will be our primary play, but we’ll also box her in the exacta with #7 Speightful Sis (3-1) and use both fillies to conclude our double wagers.

Selections

• #4 Athena’s Wisdom (12-1)
• #7 Speightful Sis (3-1)
• #11 Ritabook (9-2)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #4 Athena’s Wisdom
• $7 Exacta: 7 with 4
• $3 Exacta: 4 with 7
  Total: $25

Carryover Watch

Keeneland: Race 3: $60,501 Pick 6 carryover (2:04 p.m. ET)
Keeneland: Race 8: $20,691 Super High 5 carryover (4:44 p.m. ET)

If you enjoy chasing five-figure, non-jackpot carryovers, you’re probably giddy at the thought of playing Wednesday’s card at Keeneland. There isn’t just one suitable prize pool on the agenda—there are two. The $1 Pick 6 boasts a $60,501 carryover, while the $1 Super High 5 carries a $20,691 pot.

If you’re planning to play both carryovers, the most important race to analyze is Race 8, the concluding leg of the Pick 6 and the event in which Super High 5 betting is offered. Race 8 is a maiden special weight for three-year-old fillies racing one mile on turf, and handicapping is made tricky by two key factors. One, the race has drawn an overflow field of 16 entries, from which 12 are allowed to start. Two, the co-favorite on the morning line is #16 Tactical Joke (3-1), who seems destined to scratch since she’s fourth on the also-eligible list.

But that’s okay, because once you dig into the field, clarity begins to emerge. The other co-favorite is #8 Frontal Attack (3-1), a first-time starter from the barn of Chad Brown. Brown is known for his prowess conditioning female turf horses, but it’s worth noting he’s gone only 1-for-7 (14%) debuting such runners at Keeneland since 2018. Brown’s best horses tend to debut elsewhere, so Frontal Attack isn’t necessarily unbeatable at a short price.

That’s why we recommend taking a stand with #9 Reconsider Me (4-1), singling her in the Pick 6 and keying her on top in the Super High 5. The daughter of Prix Morny (G1) winner and successful sire No Nay Never is a half-sister to Harlem, a two-time winner of the Australian Cup (G1) racing 2,000 meters (about 1 1/4 miles) on turf.

Reconsider Me has only run once, finishing second in her debut sprinting seven furlongs at Newmarket in England last fall. Her form was flattered when the third-place finisher returned to win her next start.

Reconsider Me has since transferred to the care of Graham Motion, a 21% winner with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more. She’s adding Lasix (a 24% winning move for Motion) and has Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez named to ride, so Reconsider Me looks ready to win and is an appealing filly to build tickets around.

Good luck!