Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of April 21

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, April 21 at Gulfstream Park and Aqueduct, along with horses to single in the massive $859,585 Pick 6 carryover at Keeneland.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Rest of the World $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Hawkesbury in Australia.
• $10,000 Keeneland Spring Meet Leaderboard: Place $10+ win bets at Keeneland from April 7-23 (excluding April 9) to earn points and compete for your share of $10,000 in prizes.

Picks and Plays

Gulfstream Park: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (4 1/2 furlongs, 12:40 p.m. ET)

Trainer Ralph Nicks wins at a decent 15% rate with all first-time starters. But since 2019, he’s gone 4-for-16 (25%) debuting juveniles on dirt at Gulfstream between January and May.

That stat bodes well for #6 Northshore Drive (5-1), a Nicks trainee debuting in this 4 1/2-furlong maiden dash for two-year-olds. Sire Fort Loudon won three stakes in Florida as a juvenile, while dam Proof Inthe Puddin broke her maiden at age two.

Northshore Drive breezed a decent three furlongs from the Gulfstream starting gate in :36.30 last Sunday and looks ready to challenge on debut. At 5-1, he’s worth betting to win and keying over #1 Reaper (3-1) and #7 Quiver of Fear (2-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #6 Northshore Drive (5-1)
• #1 Reaper (3-1)
• #7 Quiver of Fear (2-1)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #6 Northshore Drive
• $5 Exacta: 6 with 1,7 ($10)
  Total: $25

Aqueduct: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (seven furlongs, 1:20 p.m. ET)

#6 D Hopper (1-1) is the heavy favorite after leading all the way in a maiden special weight over this track and class level on March 3. But he drifted out in the homestretch and wound up being disqualified to second place.

D Hopper is four years old, so the late start to his career and the drifting he showed on debut suggest his upside might be limited. Perhaps we can beat him with the first-time starter #1 Majestic Michael (6-1). When trainer Anthony Dutrow debuts horses in maiden special weights, 50% finish in the top three, an encouraging stat.

Majestic Michael sold for $375,000 as a weanling and counts Triple Crown winner Justify as his sire. Justify sires an excellent 19% winners from first-time starters, and Majestic Michael has put together an encouraging work tab, so all signs suggest this untested three-year-old is ready to challenge under hot jockey Kendrick Carmouche.

Selections

• #1 Majestic Michael (6-1)
• #6 D Hopper (1-1)
• #2 Alternate Reality (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Majestic Michael
• $10 Exacta: 1 with 6
  Total: $30

Gulfstream Park: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 1:42 p.m. ET)

The par winning Brisnet Speed rating for this type of race is 85, a number none of the experienced fillies and mares in this field have reached. Therefore, we’ll favor the first-time starter #4 Party Favor (5-2).

Trainer Todd Pletcher has gone 52-for-199 (26%) debuting dirt horses at Gulfstream since 2018, and Party Favor is a daughter of three-time Grade 1-winning sprinter/miler Practical Joke, who sires a solid 16% winners from first-time starters. The stats suggest Party Favor will be ready to roll on debut, and she won’t have to be a superstar to beat this field.

#1 Vita de Vito (6-1) and #6 She’s Awesome (7-2) are the two we’ll add for exacta purposes.

Selections

• #4 Party Favor (5-2)
• #1 Vita de Vito (6-1)
• #6 She’s Awesome (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #4 Party Favor
• $5 Exacta: 4 with 1,6 ($10)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Keeneland: Race 5: $859,585 Pick 6 carryover (3:08 p.m. ET)

Saturday. That was the last day anyone managed to hit the Pick 6 at Keeneland. The $1 wager subsequently went unsolved on Sunday, Wednesday, and Thursday, generating a massive triple carryover worth $859,585 for Friday’s card.

If you’re looking for singles to build tickets around, we have you covered with a pair of possibilities:

Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (6 1/2 furlongs) #1 Coppa Girl (4-1)

The par winning Brisnet Speed rating for this type of race is 89, but none of the experienced three-year-old fillies in this field have posted a number higher than 86. That suggests the race is ripe for conquest by a first-time starter, and among those, Coppa Girl looks like the one to beat.

Coppa Girl is a daughter of Constitution, who sires a lofty 18% winners from first-time starters. And she’s conditioned by red-hot trainer Brad Cox, who has gone 8-for-20 (40%) to start the Keeneland spring meet.

Since 2018, Cox has gone 6-for-17 (35%) debuting three-year-olds at Keeneland, an impressive stat that bodes well for Coppa Girl. The chestnut filly has put together an encouraging work tab highlighted by a bullet five furlongs from the Churchill Downs training track starting gate in 1:00 1/5, so all signs suggest she’s ready to produce a winning debut.

Race 9: Doubledogdare (G3, 1 1/16 miles): #4 Interstatedaydream (6-5)

Interstatedaydream ought to be formidable in her second run of the season. Winner of the Black-Eyed Susan (G2) and Indiana Oaks (G3) as a three-year-old last year, Interstatedaydream kicked off her sophomore campaign with a third-place finish behind Grade 1 winners Secret Oath and Clairiere in the Azeri (G2) at Oaklawn Park. It’s worth noting Clairiere and Secret Oath returned to run 1-2 in the Apple Blossom H. (G1) last week.

Some bettors may hesitate to single Interstatedaydream since she was beaten 3 3/4 lengths by #2 Green Up (3-1) in the Cathryn Sophia S. at Parx Racing last August. But Interstatedaydream disappeared from the work tab after the Cathryn Sophia and didn’t return to serious training until January, suggesting something went awry at Parx.

Green Up hasn’t run since September, so Interstatedaydream may have an edge in fitness. She’s trained by Brad Cox (a 25% winner with horses running back for the second time following a layoff), so we’ll make Interstatedaydream our second Pick 6 single.

Good luck!