Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of April 27

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, April 27 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Gulfstream Park, along with a single and a live longshot in the $28,675 Pick 5 carryover at Charles Town.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Hoosier Park $1,000 Pick 4 Hit It & Split It: Hit the late Pick 4 on Thursdays at Hoosier Park to win your share of a $1,000 weekly jackpot.
• Keeneland Daily Double Down: Receive a 50% bonus on all winning double wagers at Keeneland on Wednesdays and Thursdays (also Friday, April 28).

Picks and Plays

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs, 3:11 p.m. ET)

#1 Video Princess (2-1) showed promise in a pair of maiden special weights on turf at Monmouth Park last summer, finishing second in a five-furlong sprint and second again in a one-mile contest.

As a daughter of Kantharos out of a mare by Pioneerof the Nile, Video Princess has the pedigree to thrive while switching to dirt. She enters off sharp workouts for trainer William Morey (a 24% winner with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more), so let’s count on Video Princess to spring a mild surprise over #4 All That (7-5).

A cold exacta will be our primary play, but we’ll also single Video Princess to start a double wager.

Selections

• #1 Video Princess (2-1)
• #4 All That (7-5)
• #5 Urban Cowgirl (5-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 1 with 4
• $15 Double: 1 with 7
  Total: $35

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 4: $20,000 Maiden Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs, 3:43 p.m. ET)

#7 Timely Prospect (9-5) ran well in her debut for a $16,000 maiden claiming tag at Tampa Bay Downs earlier this month, settling just off the pace before staying on to finish second. The 74 Brisnet Speed rating she posted stacks up well against Thursday’s field.

Trainer Anthony Granitz wins at a solid 19% rate with second-time starters, so we’ll single Timely Prospect to conclude our double wager and bet her over #2 Vintage Vinyl (9-2) and #6 Blown Out (9-2) in an exacta.

Selections

• #7 Timely Prospect (9-5)
• #2 Vintage Vinyl (9-2)
• #6 Blown Out (9-2)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: 7 with 2,6 ($20)

Gulfstream Park: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (one mile, 3:45 p.m. ET)

#2 Imonra (2-1) hasn’t missed the trifecta in three starts over this track and class level. Second and third in a pair of six-furlong sprints last fall, Imonra recently returned from a three-month break to finish second in a one-mile contest, beaten only a nose after vying for command throughout.

Imonra should be tough to beat while sticking to the same track, distance, and class level, so we’ll bet her to win and key her over #1 Love Rhapsody (4-1) and #8 What’s Good (7-2) in the exacta.

Selections

• #2 Imonra (2-1)
• #1 Love Rhapsody (4-1)
• #8 What’s Good (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #2 Imonra
• $5 Exacta: 2 with 1,8 ($10)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Charles Town: Race 5: $28,675 Pick 5 carryover (8:53 p.m. ET)

If you’re looking for a non-jackpot carryover to pursue on Thursday, check out the evening action at Charles Town, where the Pick 5 has tossed up a suitable prize pool worth $28,675.

A challenging sequence is on tap. Every race contains a minimum of eight entries, and four of them have drawn 10 or more entries. Even once you exclude nine also-eligible entrants from the count, there are 48 horses (averaging 9.6 per race) to analyze and 80,000 possible outcomes.

If you’re looking for a single to build tickets around, check out #6 Odie (5-2) in Race 6, a $15,000 allowance optional claimer taking place over 6 1/2 furlongs on dirt. Whereas Odie’s rivals have been posting Brisnet Speed ratings in the 70s and 80s for the most part, Odie’s last three numbers are 90, 92, and 91, earned while winning a pair of $15,000 claimers and finishing third in a $25,000 allowance optional claimer at Mahoning Valley.

Odie boasts two wins and two seconds from four starts at Charles Town, so we know he likes this track. Last September, he ran second in a $5,000 starter allowance dashing 4 1/2 furlongs at Charles Town, beaten only half a length by winning machine Company Clown. Stretching out over 6 1/2 furlongs should be more suitable for Odie, who boasts a 4-2-1-0 record over this distance. Throw in the fact trainer Kevin Patterson wins at a 34% rate with shippers, and Odie looms as a logical single while returning to Charles Town.

We’ll also take a moment to highlight #2 Bar On the Beach (12-1) as a live longshot in Race 7, a 4 1/2-furlong dirt allowance. Pacesetters have won 49% of 4 1/2-furlong sprints at Charles Town since Jan. 4, so it’s safe to say speed horses have an advantage.

Bar On the Beach faltered in a recent $7,500 claimer at Parx, but two starts back he obliterated a $5,000 claimer sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs at Penn National, leading by a minimum of four lengths at every call to dominate by 8 1/4 lengths at the finish line. That effort produced a career-best 79 Brisnet Speed rating, only one point below the 80 that stands as the par winning number for Thursday’s conditions.

Trainer Felix Flores-Coba has gone 1-for-1 at Charles Town this meet, and Bar on the Beach brings a bevy of sharp Brisnet E1 and E2 Pace ratings to the table (he’s set the pace in each of his last five starts), so the four-year-old gelding is a danger to wire Thursday’s field at enticing odds.

Good luck!