Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of April 28

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, April 28 at Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita, along with horses to single in the $28,186 Pick 5 carryover at Tampa Bay Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Rest of the World $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Sandown in Australia.
• Keeneland Daily Double Down: Receive a 50% bonus on all winning double wagers at Keeneland.

Picks and Plays

Gulfstream Park: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 1:38 p.m. ET)

In a field of Florida-bred maidens that hasn’t come up all that tough on paper, #8 Splurge (10-1) offers appeal. Conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse, Splurge finished third in her debut over this track and class level last summer before faltering in two subsequent starts against non-state-restricted competition at Saratoga and Woodbine.

Splurge has been freshened since September and enters off some encouraging workouts, including a half-mile from the Palm Meadows starting gate in :47.90. She’s eligible to outrun her odds while returning to Gulfstream and dropping into the Florida-bred ranks for her sophomore debut.

At 10-1, a win bet is in order. We’ll also bet Splurge over #4 Mama Maria (3-1) and #3 Principia (7-2) in the exacta.

Selections

• #8 Splurge (10-1)
• #4 Mama Maria (3-1)
• #3 Principia (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #8 Splurge
• $5 Exacta: 8 with 3,4 ($10)
  Total: $30

Santa Anita: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on turf, 6:00 p.m. ET)

#4 Grand Tiger (5-2) has been cranking out fast workouts with regularity for trainer Brian Koriner, who wins at a 19% rate with horses debuting on turf. Five furlongs in :59 2/5 from the starting gate… six furlongs in 1:12 4/5… five furlongs in a bullet :57 1/5… five furlongs in a bullet :58 4/5….

We’ll count on Grand Tiger to deliver a winning debut over logical favorite #6 Moon Ice (4-1), who has cracked the trifecta in all four of his starts over this course and class level. #9 Barely Funtional (3-1), runner-up over this course and class level two starts back, is another we’ll use in the exacta and trifecta.

Selections

• #4 Grand Tiger (5-2)
• #6 Moon Ice (4-1)
• #9 Barely Funtional (3-1)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #4 Grand Tiger (3-1)
• $5 Exacta: 4 with 6,9 ($10)
• $2.50 Trifecta: 4 with 6,9 with 6,9 ($5)
  Total: $30

Santa Anita: Race 8: Allowance (6 1/2 furlongs, 7:30 p.m. ET)

#1 Eda (8-5) hasn’t run since March 2022, when she wired the Santa Ysabel (G3) at Santa Anita by half a length. She’d previously rattled off victories in the Starlet (G1), Desi Arnaz S., and Anoakia S.

Eda’s flashiest performances have come in sprints, and Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert wins at a 27% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, so Eda should be tough to beat while dropping down in class and distance for her four-year-old debut. We’ll bet her over #4 Teddy’s Barino (9-5) and #2 Kristi’s Tiger (8-1) in cold exacta and trifecta wagers.

Selections

• #1 Eda (8-5)
• #4 Teddy’s Barino (9-5)
• #2 Kristi’s Tiger (8-1)

Wagers

• $22 Exacta: 1 with 4
• $8 Trifecta: 1 with 4 with 2
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 5: $26,186 Pick 5 carryover (2:20 p.m. ET)

The Friday card at Tampa Bay Downs features a non-jackpot carryover worth $26,186 in the 50-cent Late Pick 5.

Planning to play along, but not sure where to begin? We’ve got you covered with a pair of suggested singles:

Race 6: $8,000 Claiming (seven furlongs) #2 Chem Major (1-1)

The lightly raced four-year-old filly Chem Major looms as the runner to beat in this seven-furlong dirt dash for fillies and mares. In her Feb. 5 debut sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Tampa Bay Downs, Chem Major survived a pace duel to win a $16,000 maiden claimer by 1 1/2 lengths over The Sweaty Fox, who has since returned to win twice.

Chem Major’s victory produced an 82 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest number in Friday’s field. Considering her five rivals haven’t produced a number higher than 81 across a combined 87 starts, it’s safe to assume if Chem Major repeats her debut, she’ll have every chance to win on Friday.

Some bettors might hesitate to support Chem Major since she’s exiting a last-place finish in a $25,000 starter allowance racing one mile over the Tampa Bay Downs turf course. But returning to dirt and dropping down in distance can trigger a rebound, especially since trainer Kathleen O’Connell wins at a strong 19% rate with horses transitioning from turf to dirt.

Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs): #2 Plentitude (7-5)

It might seem risky to make an unraced horse like Plentitude a Pick 5 single, but a powerful trainer stat indicates the odds are in our corner.

Plentitude is trained by Christophe Clement, a lofty 21% winner with horses debuting in maiden special weights. But sealing the deal is Clement’s phenomenal 7-for-11 (64%) record saddling first-time starters in dirt sprints at Tampa Bay Downs since 2018.

That angle alone is reason enough to back Plentitude, but her pedigree is also encouraging. She’s a daughter of Quality Road (who sires 14% winners from first-time starters) out of Yellow Agate, a debut-winning juvenile who nabbed the Frizette (G1) in her second start. Throw in the fact Plentitude has put together an encouraging work tab and has Tampa’s leading jockey Samy Camacho named to ride, and her credentials are about as imposing as you’ll find from a first-time starter.

Good luck!