Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of April 5

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, April 5 at Mahoning Valley and Turf Paradise, including tickets for Tampa’s $2,672 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• 10x Points on Harness Racing: On Mondays, Tuesdays, and Wednesdays, receive 10x reward points on all wagers at any harness track.

Picks and Plays

Mahoning Valley: Race 6: $10,000 Claiming (one mile, 3:03 p.m. ET)

#5 One Lucky Day (7-2) has spent most of his career competing on turf and synthetic. But he’s arguably as good or better on dirt. He broke his maiden in a $25,000 maiden claimer sprinting six furlongs at Tampa Bay Downs, and he later finished second in a $20,000 claimer racing one mile and 40 yards at Tampa.

Trainer Rey Hernandez has compiled a stellar 10-6-2-1 (60%) record at Mahoning this meet, so let’s count on One Lucky Day to deliver a mild upset while returning to dirt.

Selections

• #5 One Lucky Day (7-2)
• #2 Killer Bee (2-1)
• #3 Alfio (5-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #5 One Lucky Day
• $5 Exacta: 5 with 2,3 ($10)
  Total: $30

Turf Paradise: Race 6: $8,500 Maiden Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs, 5:50 p.m. ET)

None of the local runners in this field appear overly formidable, so we’ll try backing Northern California raider #5 Looksgoodonyoutho (5-2), who has hit the board in four of his last five starts against $8,000 and $12,500 maiden claiming competition.

Looksgoodonyoutho is making his first start for trainer Frank Lucarelli, who wins at a 20% rate with horses competing for the first time under his care. Throw in jockey Isaias Enriquez, who has gone 4-for-16 (25%) teaming up with Lucarelli over the last two months, and Looksgoodonyoutho looks ready to win over #7 Six Shots of T (7-2).

We’ll key Looksgoodonyoutho on top of an exacta and single him to start a double wager.

Selections

• #5 Looksgoodonyoutho (5-2)
• #7 Six Shots of T (7-2)
• #6 Northern Cocktail (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 5 with 7
• $10 Double: 5 with 4
  Total: $30

Turf Paradise: Race 7: $12,500-10,000 Starter Optional Claiming (one mile on turf, 6:20 p.m. ET)

#4 Cashanova (3-1) has cracked the trifecta in eight consecutive races, including six in a row on turf and five in a row at Turf Paradise. He was especially impressive in a $10,000-$8,000 starter optional claimer racing about 7 1/2 furlongs over the Turf Paradise lawn one week ago, tracking the early pace before powering away to dominate by 7 1/2 lengths.

Trained Alfredo Asprino strikes at a 30% rate with last-out winners, and jockey Heribert Martinez has gone 2-for-5 (40%) teaming up with Asprino over the last two months. We’ll single Cashanova to conclude our double wager and key him over #2 Willy the Cobbler (8-5) and #6 Of Good Report (7-2) in the exacta.

Selections

• #4 Cashanova (3-1)
• #2 Willy the Cobbler (8-5)
• #6 Of Good Report (7-2)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 4 with 2,6 ($30)

Carryover Watch

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 3: $2,672 Super High 5 carryover (1:17 p.m. ET)

Wednesday’s third race at Tampa Bay Downs, a $25,000 starter allowance taking place over one mile on turf, features a $2,672 carryover in the $1 Super High 5.

With seven entries in the mix, there are only 2,520 possible Super High 5 outcomes to analyze. That doesn’t sound too difficult, right?

The problem with Wednesday’s Super High 5 at Tampa is that it’s hard to eliminate any of the seven starters from consideration. The longest shot on the morning line is #1 Ready to Fly (15-1), perhaps because he hasn’t run since September and trainer Patrick McBurney wins at only a 4% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more. On the other hand, Ready to Fly boasts solid form lines against tougher competition and even won a $30,000 starter allowance three starts back, so there’s at least an outside chance Ready to Fly will visit the winner’s circle.

So how do we go about playing the Super High 5? Perhaps by keying morning line favorite #5 Harrow (6-5) on top. The five-year-old gelding has won a pair of $25,000 starter allowances over the Tampa turf course in recent months, most recently employing pace-tracking tactics to trounce a 1 1/16-mile contest by 2 1/2 lengths. Harrow brings a bevy of competitive Brisnet Speed ratings to the table and should have every chance to win right back for trainer Timothy Hamm, who strikes 22% of the time when saddling last-out winners.

Underneath Harrow, we’ll emphasize #2 Ronstadt (7-2) and #3 Smart as Me (3-1). Both enter off back-to-back victories over the Tampa turf course, and while they haven’t been running quite as fast as Harrow, they both have strong chances to finish in the top five. Of the pair, we’ll give an edge to Ronstadt, who has more tactical speed.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• $1 Super High 5: 5 with 2 with 3 with 1,4,6,7 with 1,4,6,7 ($12)
• $1 Super High 5: 5 with 2 with 1,4,6,7 with 3 with 1,4,6,7 ($12)
• $1 Super High 5: 5 with 2 with 1,4,6,7 with 1,4,6,7 with 3 ($12)
• $1 Super High 5: 5 with 1,4,6,7 with 2 with 3 with 1,4,6,7 ($12)
• $1 Super High 5: 5 with 1,4,6,7 with 2 with 1,4,6,7 with 3 ($12)
• $1 Super High 5: 5 with 1,4,6,7 with 1,4,6,7 with 2 with 3 ($12)
  Total: $72

Good luck!