Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of April 7

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, April 7 at Keeneland, along with horses to single in the $31,586 Pick 6 carryover at Aqueduct.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Australian Autumn Racing Carnival: Place $10+ win bets at a selected Australian racetrack every Friday from March 17 through April 7 to earn points and win a trip to the 2023 The Everest in Australia.
• $10,000 Keeneland Spring Meet Leaderboard: Place $10+ win bets at Keeneland from April 7-23 (excluding April 9) to earn points and compete for your share of $10,000 in prizes.

Picks and Plays

Keeneland: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (4 1/2 furlongs, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Trainer Wesley Ward tends to be dominant in these early-season juvenile sprints at Keeneland, so we have to respect the chances of #3 Bledsoe (2-1). Sire Iqbaal is responsible for 37% winners from first-time starters, and Bledsoe has put together a sharp series of workouts highlighted by a bullet three furlongs in :35 1/5 at Turfway Park.

But don’t count #4 Baytown Admiral (9-2) out of the picture. The Paul McEntee trainee has five bullet workouts under his belt, including half a mile from the Keeneland starting gate in :48 3/5. McEntee saddled Baytown Get It On to finish second at 16-1 in the first juvenile race of the 2022 Keeneland spring meet, so don’t be surprised if Baytown Admiral outruns expectations on Friday.

Let’s box Bledsoe and Baytown Admiral in an exacta, pressing the presumably lower-paying combination with Bledsoe on top.

Selections

• #3 Bledsoe (2-1)
• #4 Baytown Admiral (9-2)
• #12 Nurcan (7-2)

Wagers

• $18 Exacta: 3 with 4
• $12 Exacta: 4 with 3
  Total: $30

Keeneland: Race 7: Lafayette S. (seven furlongs, 4:12 p.m. ET)

#1 Gulfport (7-2) put together a solid juvenile campaign, dominating his first three starts before placing in the Saratoga Special (G2), Hopeful (G1), and Champagne (G1). Along the way, he faced and defeated Champagne (G1) winner Blazing Sevens, Bourbon (G2) hero Andthewinneris, and four-time stakes winner Super Chow.

Gulfport hasn’t run since October, but trainer Steve Asmussen wins at a solid 18% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more. If Gulfport moves forward in his three-year-old debut, he can spring a surprise against logical favorites #3 Hejazi (8-5) and #5 Corona Bolt (5-2).

Since Gulfport figures to offer decent odds in the win pool, we’ll bet him to win. But then we’ll play him equally with Hejazi and Corona Bolt to start a Pick 3. We’ll round out our Pick 3 with #11 Carl Spackler (3-1) in Race 8 and #5 Punchbowl (2-1) in Race 9.

Selections

• #1 Gulfport (7-2)
• #5 Corona Bolt (5-2)
• #3 Hejazi (8-5)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #1 Gulfport
• $5 Pick 3: 1,3,5 with 11 with 5 ($15)
  Total: $30

Keeneland: Race 8: Transylvania (G3, 1 1/16 miles on turf, 4:44 p.m. ET)

#11 Carl Spackler (3-1) ran a big race in his debut over the Gulfstream Park turf course, finishing second by a head against the talented Far Bridge while pulling six lengths clear of the rest. Subsequently, Carl Spackler obliterated a Gulfstream maiden special weight by 8 3/4 lengths, earning a powerful 102 Brisnet Speed rating.

If Carl Spackler’s 3-1 morning line odds hold up, he might be one of the best plays of the week. Accordingly, we’ll bet him to win, single him in our Pick 3, and single him to start a double wager using #5 Punchbowl (2-1) in Race 9.

Selections

• #11 Carl Spackler (3-1)
• #8 Candidate (10-1)
• #3 Andthewinneris (12-1)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #11 Carl Spackler
• $15 Double: 11 with 5
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Aqueduct, Race 3: $31,586 Pick 6 carryover (2:24 p.m. ET)

On the eve of an action-packed Saturday at Aqueduct, the New York racetrack boasts a $31,586 carryover in Friday’s $1 Pick 6.

The six-race sequence contains 55 entries (averaging nearly 9.2 per race) and 506,880 possible outcomes before scratches. It’s a tricky Pick 6, but if you’re willing to single the following two horses, you can significantly reduce the number of outcomes to consider and hopefully assemble a winning ticket:

Race 3: $16,000 Claiming (one mile): #4 In Traffic (5-2)

#1 April Antics (9-5) is the morning line favorite after finishing second over this course, distance, and class level on March 19, coming home 2 3/4 lengths clear of third-place finisher In Traffic. But April Antics is 1-for-20 lifetime and has lost 18 consecutive races, so she’s not necessarily the type to trust at a short price.

In Traffic has every chance to turn the tables on Friday. Three starts back, she wired a $30,000 maiden claimer at Aqueduct over next-out winner #6 Ricelle (4-1). Then In Traffic faltered in a $25,000 claimer over a sloppy track at Aqueduct, finishing last in a subpar showing.

On March 19, In Traffic got bumped at the start and wound up racing well off the pace before unleashing a midrace rally to reach contention. She flattened out down the homestretch, but is eligible to rebound if she breaks cleanly and reverts to pacesetting tactics in Friday’s largely paceless field. That’s why we’re willing to single In Traffic to start the Pick 6.

Race 7: Distaff H. (G3, seven furlongs)

#6 Rossa Veloce (8-5) has been on fire since being claimed by hot trainer Rob Atras last September. She’s rattled off four victories from five starts for Atras, most recently wiring the six-furlong Correction S. at Aqueduct by 5 1/4 lengths.

Rossa Veloce’s runaway Correction romp produced a career-best 102 Brisnet Speed rating. She looms as the only definite frontrunner in the Distaff H. field and should be difficult to catch under Eclipse Award-winning jockey Jose Ortiz. The fact Atras strikes at a 27% rate with last-out winners adds to the appeal.

Good luck!