Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of Aug. 1

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Tuesday, Aug. 1 at Belterra Park and Ellis Park, along with horses to play in carryovers at Ellis and Finger Lakes.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Trifecta Tuesday: Receive a 15% bonus on trifecta winnings excluding stake amount; up to $25 per day.

Picks and Plays

Belterra Park: Race 4: Allowance (six furlongs, 12:55 p.m. ET)

We’ll throw our support behind #5 K Kid (5-2) in this allowance sprint for Ohio-breds. K Kid hasn’t visited the winner’s circle since rallying to victory in a six-furlong maiden special weight for Ohio-breds at Thistledown last year, but the three-year-old gelding has finished second each of the last three times he’s sprinted against Ohio-bred allowance competition. In a six-furlong allowance on July 6 at Thistledown, K Kid rallied boldly in the final furlong to miss victory by a head.

K Kid’s state-bred allowance tries have produced sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 79, 75, and 70, stamping him as the fastest horse in Friday’s field. He appears to have found the perfect spot to secure his second career victory, so we’ll bet K Kid to win and key him over #4 Leroyisalagniappe (7-2) and #2 Mixter Jensen (4-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #5 K Kid (5-2)
• #4 Leroyisalagniappe (7-2)
• #2 Mixter Jensen (4-1)

Wagers

• $18 to win on #5 K Kid (5-2)
• $6 Exacta: 5 with 2,4 ($12)
  Total: $30

Belterra Park: Race 7: $5,000 Claiming (one mile, 2:25 p.m. ET)

Morning line favorite #8 Sophisticated (5-2) is a logical contender after hitting the board in each of her last three starts over this track, distance, and class level. But in two of those starts, Sophisticated benefited from racing close to slow fractions. When she tracked a faster pace in her most recent outing, she faded down the homestretch to finish fourth, four lengths behind fellow pace-tracker #1 Tiz Biz (7-2) and 3 1/4 lengths behind frontrunning #2 Fabiola Princess (5-1).

Let’s try to beat Sophisticated with Tiz Biz. The four-year-old filly has only run once over this track, distance, and class level and finished second with a respectable 63 Brisnet Speed rating. Tiz Biz hasn’t missed the trifecta in three starts running long on dirt and has the tactical speed to work out a winning trip under hot jockey John McKee, a 24% winner at Belterra this meet.

Selections

• #1 Tiz Biz (7-2)
• #8 Sophisticated (5-2)
• #6 Pacific Grove (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Tiz Biz
• $10 Exacta: 1 with 8
  Total: $30

Ellis Park: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 2:45 p.m. ET)

#8 Saltwater Taffy (10-1) ran into trouble at the start of her debut sprinting five furlongs over the Ellis Park dirt, then passed a couple of rivals to finish seventh. She has the pedigree to shine on turf for Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse (a 17% winner with second-time starters), so Saltwater Taffy is eligible to improve while switching surfaces for her second try.

At 10-1, a win bet is in order, along with an exacta keying Saltwater Taffy over first-time starters #10 Song of Norway (9-5) and #5 Candy Landy (6-1).

Selections

• #8 Saltwater Taffy (10-1)
• #10 Song of Norway (9-5)
• #5 Candy Landy (6-1)

Wagers

• $12 to win on #8 Saltwater Taffy
• $4 Exacta: 8 with 5,10 ($8)
  Total: $20

Carryover Watch

Ellis Park: Race 1: $1,915 Super High 5 carryover (12:45 p.m. ET)

The opening race on Tuesday at Ellis Park is a $16,000 maiden claimer for fillies and mares racing 1 1/16 miles on turf. With a $1,915 carryover on the table in the $1 Super High 5, it’s a race well worth analyzing.

The morning line favorite is #10 Goldcrest (2-1), a three-year-old filly dropping in class out of three top-five finishes in maiden special weights over the Gulfstream Park Tapeta track. Those efforts produced sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 74, 74, and 76, stamping Goldcrest as a viable contender at Ellis. But can she handle the switch to turf? She’s never run over the surface and isn’t especially bred for grass success, so the transition is a question mark.

Perhaps a horse like #5 Mrs. Speaker (6-1) is worth playing on top at a better price. She’s hit the board in two of her three starts against $30,000 maiden claiming competition over the Horseshoe Indianapolis turf course, even earning a 74 Brisnet Speed rating on one occasion. Trainer Chris Hartman has gone 3-for-15 (20%) at Ellis this meet, and jockey Francisco Arrieta wins at a respectable 16% rate on turf, so Mrs. Speaker is eligible to outrun her odds.

Finger Lakes: Race 3: $1,363 Pick 6 carryover (2:13 p.m. ET)
Finger Lakes: Race 4: $20,328 Pick 5 carryover (2:42 p.m. ET)

There are a couple of non-jackpot carryovers up for grabs on Tuesday at Finger Lakes. The 50-cent Pick 5 boasts a $20,328 prize pool, while the carryover for the $1 Pick 6 stands at $1,363.

Looking for a live longshot to boost the potential payoffs? Check out #7 Speed Up (8-1) in Race 6, a maiden special weight for two-year-old fillies. Speed Up is trained by Linda Dixon, a 16% winner with first-time starters who has gone 4-for-11 (36%) debuting juveniles in sprints at Finger Lakes since 2021.

Speed Up isn’t a lock to win; her work tab isn’t eye-catching, and her pedigree isn’t particularly flashy. But Dixon’s success rate with horses like Speed Up establishes the bay filly as a must-use contender in the Pick 5 and Pick 6.

Good luck!