Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of Aug. 11

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, Aug. 11 at Ellis Park, Horseshoe Indianapolis, and Saratoga, including tickets for the $999 Super High 5 carryover at Ellis.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Del Mar Daily Double Down: Receive a 25% bonus (up to $25 per day) on winning daily double wagers on Thursdays and Fridays at Del Mar. Your base wager amount must be minimum $2.
• Saratoga $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races Wednesday through Sunday at Saratoga.
• Colonial Downs $2,500 Late Pick 5 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 5 at Colonial Downs to earn your share of a $2,500 weekly jackpot.
• Summer International Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any eligible race at Rosehill (AUS).
• Dan Patch Night $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in selected stakes at Hoosier Park.
• Dan Patch Night $5,000 Late Pick 4 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 4 at Hoosier Park to split a $5,000 bonus jackpot.

Picks and Plays

Ellis Park: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (seven furlongs, 1:43 p.m. ET)

#7 Up On the Edge (2-1) ran an unusual race in her debut sprinting six furlongs over this track and class level. She flashed some early speed racing in fourth position, dropped back to ninth place with a quarter-mile remaining, and then re-rallied to finish fourth by four lengths.

Trainer Rodolphe Brisset wins at an impressive 30% rate with second-time starters, so let’s count on Up On the Edge to run a bit more consistently in her second start and deliver victory over #1 Naughty Miss (5-2).

Selections

• #7 Up On the Edge (2-1)
• #1 Naughty Miss (5-2)
• #2 Barbratina (10-1)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #7 Up On the Edge
• $15 Exacta: 7 with 1
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (one mile, 4:10 p.m. ET)

None of the experienced runners in this two-turn maiden contest for Indiana-bred juvenile fillies appear overly formidable, so perhaps we can beat them with the first-time starter #6 Classic Kitten (4-1). Her sire, Charming Kitten, won the Belmont Gold Cup and H. Allen Jerkens S. racing two miles, so Classic Kitten has the pedigree to shine while debuting in a two-turn race.

Throw in the fact jockey Fernando De La Cruz has gone 6-for-14 (43%) teaming up with hot trainer Genaro Garcia over the last two months, and Classic Kitten is worth betting to win and playing over #3 Rafaella (9-5) and #5 Martz Rosey (5-2) in an exacta.

Selections

• #6 Classic Kitten (4-1)
• #3 Rafaella (9-5)
• #5 Martz Rosey (5-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Classic Kitten
• $5 Exacta: 6 with 3,5 ($10)
  Total: $30

Saratoga: Race 8: National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame (G2, one mile on turf, 5:08 p.m. ET)

There are many viable contenders in this competitive grass contest for three-year-olds, but we’ll throw our support behind #2 Carl Spackler (3-1). True, he misfired in an ultra-tough renewal of the American Turf (G2) at Churchill Downs last time out, finishing eighth by 4 1/2 lengths. But he’s been freshened since then and his previous form was strong.

Indeed, two starts back, Carl Spackler smashed a one-mile maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park by 8 3/4 lengths, earning a flashy 102 Brisnet Speed rating. And in his debut racing 1 1/16 miles over the Gulfstream lawn, Carl Spackler was beaten only a head by future Belmont Derby (G1) winner Far Bridge.

Let’s bet Carl Spackler to win, then key him on top of a bold exacta using longshots #6 Mysterious Night (10-1) and #7 Mischievous Angel (10-1) for second place.

Selections

• #2 Carl Spackler (9-2)
• #6 Mysterious Night (10-1)
• #7 Mischievous Angel (10-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #2 Carl Spackler
• $5 Exacta: 2 with 6,7 ($10)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Ellis Park: Race 1: $999 Super High 5 carryover (12:45 p.m. ET)

No one hit the $1 Super High 5 in the final race at Ellis Park last Sunday, which means there’s a $999 non-jackpot carryover up for grabs in the opening race this Friday.

Mathematically speaking, the wager looks straightforward to play. Race 1 is a $50,000 maiden claimer for two-year-olds racing one mile on turf, and with seven horses in the entries, there are only 2,520 possible Super High 5 outcomes to analyze. For the sake of comparison, a 12-horse field features 95,040 possible outcomes.

We can simplify matters even further by keying morning line favorite #2 Acacio (9-5) on top of our tickets. The son of Belmont (G1) winner Palace Malice debuted in a 7 1/2-furlong maiden special weight over the Horseshoe Indianapolis turf course last month and rallied from midfield to finish third, beaten 2 3/4 lengths. The form of the race was flattered when runner-up Legal Titan came back to win a maiden special weight racing one mile on turf at Ellis Park.

Dropping into a $50,000 maiden claimer for his second start should make Acacio tough to beat. Trainer Jonathan Thomas wins at a 28% rate with second-time starters, and he’s saddled a winner and a runner-up from two starters at Ellis this meet, so all signs suggest Acacio is sitting on a winning run.

Sorting through the rest of the contenders is more difficult, as none look especially strong at first glance. But we should be able to count on #6 Baytown Parfait (8-1) to finish in the top five. The son of Flameaway showed promise when finishing third in a five-furlong maiden special weight over the Churchill Downs main track two months ago, and his pedigree suggests switching to turf and stretching out over one mile can trigger improvement. The presence of hot jockey Rafael Bejarano (a 20% winner at Ellis this meet) adds to the appeal.

#3 Master Switch (9-2) warrants respect as well. He debuted with a fifth-place finish sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs over the Ellis Park dirt and should appreciate dropping in class for his second start. Transitioning to grass could be a positive as well, since Master Switch is a half-brother to a turf winner.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• $1 Super High 5: 2 with 3,6 with 3,6 with ALL with ALL ($24)
• $1 Super High 5: 2 with 3,6 with ALL with 3,6 with ALL ($24)
• $1 Super High 5: 2 with 3,6 with ALL with ALL with 3,6 ($24)
  Total: $72

Good luck!