Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of Aug. 15

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Tuesday, Aug. 15 at Thistledown and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with horses to single in the $4,904 Pick 5 carryover at Presque Isle Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Trifecta Tuesday: Receive a 15% bonus on trifecta winnings excluding stake amount; up to $25 per day.

Picks and Plays

Thistledown: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs, 1:50 p.m. ET)

Since 2021, trainer Richard Zielinski has gone 3-for-3 debuting two-year-olds at Thistledown. Therefore, we’ll support Zielinski’s unraced #2 Blizzard (8-1) in this maiden contest for Ohio-bred juvenile fillies. Her work tab isn’t flashy, but she’s a daughter of the early-maturing Solomini, so Blizzard is eligible to win from an early age.

Throw in the fact she’ll be ridden by Luis Rivera, who has gone 3-for-6 (50%) teaming up with Zielinski over the last two months, and Blizzard is well worth betting to win at her 8-1 morning line odds.

Selections

• #2 Blizzard (8-1)
• #3 Gold Honey (8-5)
• #5 Saltmakeshersweet (9-5)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #2 Blizzard

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs, 2:30 p.m. ET)

#6 Funtastic Vow (8-1) can’t be underestimated in this maiden sprint for Indiana-bred juveniles. He’s put together a decent work tab at Horseshoe Indianapolis (including a bullet three furlongs in :35 1/5), and trainer Aaron West has compiled a respectable 2-for-12 (17%) record debuting two-year-olds in dirt sprints at Horseshoe Indianapolis since 2021.

Add in the fact Funtastic Vow will be ridden by Samuel Bermudez, who has gone 6-for-18 (33%) teaming up with West over the last two months, and Funtastic Vow—much like Blizzard—is worthy of a win bet. For good measure, we’ll add an exacta using #3 S J Mater (6-1) and #1 El Tulipan (4-1) for second place.

Selections

• #6 Funtastic Vow (8-1)
• #3 S J Mater (6-1)
• #1 El Tulipan (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Funtastic Vow
• $5 Exacta: 6 with 1,3 ($10)
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 4: $30,000 Maiden Claiming (7 1/2 furlongs on turf, 4:03 p.m. ET)

#6 Moms Channel (2-1) showed promise when debuting in a 4 1/2-furlong maiden special weight on dirt at Hawthorne, dueling for the lead before staying on to finish third. As a daughter of English Channel out of a mare by Kitten’s Joy, Moms Channel is bred to relish racing on turf, so switching surfaces and dropping in class for her second start may trigger a victory.

There are also a couple of positive jockey and trainer stats in Moms Channel’s corner. Trainer Larry Rivelli wins at a 24% rate with horses running on grass for the first time, and jockey Gerardo Corrales (a 24% winner at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet) has gone 5-for-6 (83%) teaming up with Rivelli over the last two months.

#3 Pure Connection (3-1) can complete the exacta while dropping in class out of a maiden special weight over the Ellis Park turf course.

Selections

• #6 Moms Channel (2-1)
• #3 Pure Connection (3-1)
• #7 Ladle (9-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Moms Channel
• $10 Exacta: 6 with 3
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Presque Isle Downs: Race 1: $4,904 Pick 5 carryover (3:00 p.m. ET)

The Tuesday card at Presque Isle Downs just got even better. The 50-cent Early Pick 5 has tossed up a non-jackpot carryover worth $4,904.

As far as Pick 5s go, this one looks pretty straightforward. The five races contain only 29 entries in total, which works out to 6,480 possible outcomes.

We can reduce that number even further by singling the following horses in the final two legs of the Pick 5:

Race 4: $13,500 Claiming (one mile and 70 yards on Tapeta): #2 Starship Empire (9-5)

Starship Empire has been a rock-solid competitor in $13,500 claimers at Presque Isle Downs. In fact, he won two of them last fall, his first two starts after being claimed by trainer Scooter Davis. Those victories yielded sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 83 and 82, faster than the par winning number (78) for Tuesday’s conditions.

Starship Empire hasn’t visited the winner’s circle in three starts this year, but he’s been running just fine, finishing third in a $13,500 starter optional claimer and second in a pair of $13,500 claimers. He was only beaten a head in his most recent start, and the Brisnet Speed ratings he’s been posting (82, 77, and 82) remain strong.

None of the other horses in Tuesday’s field appear likely to produce a better run than Starship Empire’s A-game, so we’ll count on Starship Empire to deliver his typical performance and snatch first prize.

Race 5: $13,500 Starter Optional Claiming (one mile on Tapeta): #3 Red Pixie (8-5)

Red Pixie loves Presque Isle Downs. The five-year-old mare boasts four wins from five starts over this Tapeta track, and three of those victories have come in succession since May. After trouncing a pair of one-mile $5,000 claimers by 7 1/2 lengths and 2 1/4 lengths, Red Pixie tackled a $10,000 claimer over the same distance and prevailed by 5 1/2 lengths.

Red Pixie’s three victories this year have produced Brisnet Speed ratings of 78, 75, and 78, the best recent numbers belonging to any filly or mare in this $13,500 starter optional claimer. Under hot jockey Antonio Gallardo (a 22% winner at Presque Isle this meet), Red Pixie looks ready to record a fourth consecutive victory.

Good luck!