Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of Aug. 16

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, Aug. 16 at Presque Isle Downs, Horseshoe Indianapolis, and Delaware Park, along with horses to play in carryovers at Delaware Park and Saratoga.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Hoosier Park $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any eligible race at Hoosier Park.
• Saratoga $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races Wednesday through Sunday at Saratoga.

Picks and Plays

Presque Isle Downs: Race 3: $62,500 Allowance Optional Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 3:54 p.m. ET)

#3 Gotts Got It (5-2) was much the best in a 4 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Presque Isle Downs last time out, leading all the way to beat next-out maiden winner #4 Ramming Speed (9-2) by 3 3/4 lengths. His reward was an 81 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest number belonging to any horse in Monday’s field.

#1 Ninja Star (2-1), a sharp debut winner traveling 5 1/2 furlongs at Presque Isle last month, can complete a cold exacta.

Selections

• #3 Gotts Got It (5-2)
• #1 Ninja Star (2-1)
• #4 Ramming Speed (9-2)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 3 with 1

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs, 5:53 p.m. ET)

Since 2021, trainer Anthony Granitz has gone 5-for-16 (31%) debuting juveniles in sprints at Horseshoe Indianapolis. This bodes well for #10 Juicy Justice (6-1), a two-year-old filly who breezed a bullet three furlongs in :37 1/5 at Horseshoe Indianapolis last Saturday. She figures to produce a competitive showing in her first start.

At 6-1, a win bet on Juicy Justice is in order. #8 Hard Truth Wins (5-2) can round out the exacta.

Selections

• #10 Juicy Justice (6-1)
• #8 Hard Truth Wins (5-2)
• #4 One Finale (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #10 Juicy Justice
• $10 Exacta: 10 with 8
  Total: $30

Delaware Park: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (about five furlongs on turf, 2:00 p.m. ET)

Trainer Michael Stidham has enjoyed success debuting juveniles in turf sprints at Delaware Park, compiling a 2-for-4 (50%) record with such starters since 2020. That’s why we’re going to back Stidham’s #8 Orange Juice (3-1), an unraced two-year-old with an encouraging work tab under his belt.

Orange Juice has a solid turf pedigree and is slated to be ridden by Carol Cedeno (a 33% winner teaming up with Stidham over the last two months), so let’s bet him to win and key him over #6 Inchon (2-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #8 Orange Juice (3-1)
• #6 Inchon (2-1)
• #5 Nightscape (9-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #8 Orange Juice
• $10 Exacta: 8 with 6
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Delaware Park: Race 1: $14,966 Pick 5 carryover (12:30 p.m. ET)
Delaware Park: Race 4: $8,804 Pick 5 carryover (2:00 p.m. ET)

Wednesday’s Early Pick 5 at Delaware Park has tossed up a $14,966 carryover, while the Late Pick 5 boasts an $8,804 prize pool. Both wagers feature 50-cent minimum bet amounts and modest 15% takeout rates, so there are many reasons for bettors to play.

The most important races to decipher are Race 4 and Race 5, since they’re involved in both Pick 5 sequences. We’ve already analyzed Race 4 and highlighted #8 Orange Juice (3-1) as our top choice; we’re confident enough in this Michael Stidham trainee to single him in both Pick 5s.

Race 5 is a little tougher to analyze. It’s a $40,000 starter allowance for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs on dirt. #1 Mo Traffic (9-5) is a logical favorite after cracking the exacta in each of her first three starts, earning consistent Brisnet Speed ratings of 75, 74, and 74. She enters off victory in a five-furlong maiden special weight at Delaware Park.

But don’t overlook #3 Tipsy Girl (5-2), who recently returned from a long layoff to dominate a $25,000 maiden claimer sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs at Delaware by four lengths, earning a 76 Brisnet Speed rating. Trainer Jamie Ness strikes at a 23% rate with horses running back for the second time following a layoff, so Tipsy Girl has every chance to win under hot jockey Jaime Rodriguez, a 39% winner teaming up with Ness over the last two months. We recommend using both Mo Traffic and Tipsy Girl in the Pick 5s.

Saratoga: Race 4: $179,736 Pick 6 carryover (2:52 p.m. ET)

The racing week at Saratoga kicks off with a lucrative $179,736 carryover up for grabs in the $1 Pick 6.

Looking for a single to build tickets around? Try #7 South Street (1-1) in Race 7, a $25,000 claimer for horses who have never won two races. The distance is 1 1/8 miles on dirt, which should suit South Street just fine; he scored his lone victory over this trip in a February 2022 maiden special weight at Aqueduct.

South Street is dropping in class after finishing third in a $50,000 starter allowance racing one mile at Saratoga, and he brings a bevy of competitive Brisnet Speed ratings to the table. He’s versatile in terms of running style and should be tough to beat for the hot jockey/trainer duo of Jose Ortiz and Linda Rice.

Good luck!