Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of Aug. 2

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, Aug. 2 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Assiniboia Downs, along with horses to single in Pick 6 carryovers at Colonial Downs and Saratoga.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Hoosier Park $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any eligible race at Hoosier Park.

Picks and Plays

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs, 4:12 p.m. ET)

Since 2018, trainer John Ortiz has compiled a 15-8-3-1 record debuting juveniles in dirt sprints at Horseshoe Indianapolis. That works out to a 53% win rate and an 80% in-the-money rate.

This stat is powerful enough to warrant supporting Ortiz’s first-time starter #8 Double Down Derry (10-1) in this maiden sprint for Indiana-bred juveniles. The chestnut colt has been training at Keeneland and Churchill Downs and is eligible to outrun his 10-1 morning line odds while shipping to Horseshoe Indianapolis for his debut.

We’ll bet Double Down Derry to win and key him over the fast-working #3 Pop the Cork (7-2) in the exacta.

Selections

• #8 Double Down Derry (10-1)
• #3 Pop the Cork (7-2)
• #5 Cowboy Justice (5-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #8 Double Down Derry (10-1)
• $10 Exacta: 8 with 3
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 8: First Lady H. (one mile and 70 yards, 6:23 p.m. ET)

Can we cash a cold exacta in this giant field? We’ll give it a shot. #5 Bluelightspecial (8-5) has wired three straight races, including a pair of recent Horseshoe Indianapolis contests. Last time out, she nabbed the Hoosier Breeders Sophomore H. by 3 3/4 lengths over #8 Corningstone (5-2), who came back to smash the Ellen’s Lucky Star H. by 11 1/4 lengths.

Let’s count on Bluelightspecial and Corningstone to run 1-2 again.

Selections

• #5 Bluelightspecial (8-5)
• #8 Corningstone (5-2)
• #2 Sassy Katie (10-1)

Wagers

• $25 Exacta: 5 with 8

Assiniboia Downs: Race 6: Manitoba Oaks (one mile, 10:40 p.m. ET)

#7 I’ve Got All Nite (5-2) was tons the best in her debut sprinting six furlongs at Assiniboia Downs, leading by daylight at every call to win by 7 3/4 lengths. Her reward was an 82 Brisnet Speed rating, tied for the highest number belonging to any filly in the Manitoba Oaks field.

I’ve Got All Nite’s half-brother Tucker Time won the Amtote Open Derby racing 1 1/16 miles, so stretching out in distance shouldn’t be a major obstacle. Let’s key her over #2 Night Flyer (2-1) and #4 Reasonably Lovely (4-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #7 I’ve Got All Nite (5-2)
• #2 Night Flyer (2-1)
• #4 Reasonably Lovely (4-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 7 with 2,4 ($30)

Carryover Watch

Colonial Downs: Race 4: $4,861 Pick 6 carryover (3:08 p.m. ET)

If you want to win a share of Wednesday’s $4,861 Pick 6 carryover at Colonial Downs, you’ll have to decipher an incredibly difficult sequence. The six races drew a total of 72 horses (averaging 12 per race), which works out to a staggering 2,822,400 possible outcomes.

Looking for a single to build tickets around? Check out Race 7, a $12,500 claimer for horses who have never won two races. The distance is 5 1/2 furlongs on turf, and morning line favorite #4 Tapit Brio (1-1) looks formidable.

Tapit Brio hasn’t missed the trifecta in his last five starts, all on turf. He’s finished second and third in a couple of $20,000 claimers at Gulfstream Park, third in a $25,000 claimer at Pimlico, third in a $16,000 claimer at Colonial Downs, and second—beaten only a nose—in a $12,500 claimer at Gulfstream.

Tackling the $12,500 claiming level at Colonial Downs should make Tapit Brio tough to beat under hot jockey Mychel Sanchez, who has gone 7-for-32 (22%) at Colonial Downs this meet. Tapit Brio brings a bevy of strong Brisnet Speed ratings to the table and looks like the best single candidate in the Pick 6 sequence.

Saratoga: Race 5: $193,772 Pick 6 carryover (3:26 p.m. ET)

The Wednesday card at Saratoga brings a $193,772 Pick 6 carryover, which is bound to attract a large volume of new betting dollars to the pool.

The feature event on Wednesday is Race 8, the De La Rose S. taking place over one mile on turf. It’s restricted to fillies and mares who haven’t won a graded stakes in 2023, which has allowed #5 Technical Analysis (9-5) to sneak into the entries.

Technical Analysis was beaten in her 2023 debut, finishing second by half a length against #2 Evvie Jets (9-2) in the one-mile Perfect Sting S. at Belmont Park last month. But it’s worth noting Technical Analysis lost her 2022 debut as well, finishing second by half a length in Aqueduct’s Plenty of Grace S. before bouncing back one month later to dominate the Gallorette (G3).

Technical Analysis boasts a 4-3-1-0 record racing on turf at Saratoga, which includes victories in the Ballston Spa (G2), Lake Placid (G2), and Lake George (G3) plus a runner-up finish in the Diana (G1). Returning to Saratoga should make Technical Analysis tough to beat for four-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Chad Brown, who has gone 10-for-42 (24%) at Saratoga this meet. Since the De La Rose is part of the Pick 6, we’ll make Technical Analysis a short-priced single.

Good luck!