Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of Aug. 3

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, Aug. 3 at Delaware Park, Colonial Downs, and Horseshoe Indianapolis, including a ticket for Colonial’s $15,654 Early Pick 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Hoosier Park $1,000 Pick 4 Hit It & Split It: Hit the late Pick 4 on Thursdays at Hoosier Park to win your share of a $1,000 weekly jackpot.
• Colonial Downs Thursday Leaderboard: Place $10+ win bets on Thursdays at Colonial Downs to compete for your share of a $2,500 weekly jackpot.
• Summer International Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any eligible race at Goodwood (UK).
• Saratoga $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races Wednesday, Aug. 2 through Sunday, Aug. 6 at Saratoga.
• Del Mar Daily Double Down: Receive a 25% bonus (up to $25 per day) on winning daily double wagers on Thursdays and Fridays at Del Mar. Your base wager amount must be a minimum $2.

Picks and Plays

Delaware Park: Race 2: $20,000 Maiden Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Since 2018, trainer Anthony Pecoraro has gone 9-for-62 (15%) debuting juveniles at Delaware Park. It’s a decent record, but it pales in comparison to Pecoraro’s 40-for-120 (33%) tally saddling experienced juveniles at Delaware.

This stat points to #2 Wild Alex (9-5) as a logical favorite to win this $20,000 maiden claiming sprint for two-year-olds. The son of champion Afleet Alex debuted in a five-furlong dash over this track and class level and finished second by one length, earning a 66 Brisnet Speed rating only one point shy of the par winning number for these conditions. With that effort under his belt, Wild Alex figures to be tough to beat in his second start.

#5 Taporical (8-1) can complete the exacta while dropping in class out of two $50,000 maiden claimers at Delaware.

Selections

• #2 Wild Alex (9-5)
• #5 Taporical (8-1)
• #4 Chica Chuck (5-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #2 Wild Alex
• $10 Exacta: 2 with 5
  Total: $30

Colonial Downs: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on turf, 2:38 p.m. ET)

#6 Manabi (7-2) is a first-time starter from the barn of Arnaud Delacour. Since 2021, Delacour has gone 2-for-5 (40%) debuting juveniles at Colonial Downs, which includes a 1-for-2 record (50%) with juveniles debuting in turf routes.

These are positives signs for Manabi, a son of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) winner Mendelssohn out of Dolce Lemone, previously the dam of South Beach S. winner Dolce Lili. This is a pedigree geared strongly toward success on turf, and the bullet workouts Manabi has been posting at Colonial Downs suggest he has the talent to match his fine breeding.

Throw in jockey Victor Carrasco, who has gone 6-for-12 (50%) teaming up with Delacour over the last two months, and Manabi is well worth betting to win and keying over #5 Immortal Lion (12-1) and #3 Hanalei Bay (5-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #6 Manabi (7-2)
• #5 Immortal Lion (12-1)
• #3 Hanalei Bay (5-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Manabi
• $5 Exacta: 6 with 3,5 ($10)
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (7 1/2 furlongs on turf, 5:47 p.m. ET)

#3 Sambalover (5-1) debuted in a five-furlong maiden special weight over the Horseshoe Indianapolis turf course last month and gained 6 1/4 lengths through the final furlong to finish fourth by 1 1/4 lengths.

Since 2021, trainer Rodolphe Brisset has gone 0-for-8 debuting juveniles at Horseshoe Indianapolis and 6-for-10 saddling experienced juveniles at this track. This stark difference in success suggests Sambalover will move forward and vie for victory now that he has a run under his belt.

#1 Richiesderbystrike (4-1), #7 Value Engineer (9-2), and #11 Fidget (9-2) are the three we’ll add for an exacta play.

Selections

• #3 Sambalover (5-1)
• #11 Fidget (9-2)
• #1 Richiesderbystrike (4-1)
• #7 Value Engineer (9-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #3 Sambalover
• $5 Exacta: 3 with 1,7,11 ($15)
  Total: $35

Carryover Watch

Colonial Downs: Race 1: $15,654 Pick 5 carryover (1:30 p.m. ET)
Colonial Downs: Race 4: $6,056 Pick 6 carryover (3:08 p.m. ET)
Colonial Downs: Race 5: $21,003 Pick 5 carryover (3:39 p.m. ET)

If you like chasing non-jackpot Pick 5 carryovers, you’ll be excited to play Thursday’s card at Colonial Downs. There are two suitable carryovers up for grabs: a $15,654 prize pool in the Early Pick 5, and a $21,003 carryover in the Late Pick 5.

In addition, the “Old Dominion 6” Pick 6 has tossed up a non-jackpot carryover worth $6,056.

All three carryovers are worth pursuing, but we’ll focus our attention on the Early Pick 5, which looks winnable on a modest budget. Let’s take a race-by-race look at the sequence and assemble a ticket for around $50:

Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (seven furlongs)

#3 Ohana Honor (2-1) has hit the board in five of his six starts against maiden special weight competition in New York and Florida, most notably finishing second in a pair of contests at Saratoga and Aqueduct last summer. He’s switching from turf to dirt (a 23% winning move for Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey) and brings a bevy of competitive Brisnet Speed ratings to the table, so Ohana Honor is a viable single to start the Pick 5.

Race 2: $12,500 Claiming (1 1/16 miles)

#3 Mine Run (4-5) is the heavy favorite after wiring a $45,000 maiden claimer at Laurel Park with an 85 Brisnet Speed rating that tops this field. But the three-year-old gelding hasn’t run since March, so we’ll include #1 Cesar (8-1) as backup. In his most recent start running long on dirt, Cesar finished third in a $20,000 claimer at Tampa Bay Downs.

Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on turf)

We’ve already made our case for #6 Manabi (7-2) as the horse to beat, but for Pick 5 purposes we’ll use #3 Hanalei Bay (5-1) and #5 Immortal Lion (12-1) for good measure.

Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on turf)

#2 Chickahominy (5-2) debuted in the Tyson Gilpin / Glenn Petty S. over this course and distance last month and ran respectably, finishing fourth while beaten only half a length for second place. She’s a logical win threat while dropping in class and adding Lasix for her second start, but we’ll also include #14 Nineteenamendment (5-2) and #6 Blue Hour (2-1), who finished second and fifth, respectively, in a slightly tougher maiden special weight over the Colonial Downs grass last month.

Race 5: $25,000 Maiden Claiming (1 1/8 miles on turf)

There are many viable contenders in the final leg of the Pick 5. We’ll spread deep with New York raider #2 April First (3-1), Florida shipper #6 Seekingbythestorm (8-1), and the class-dropping quartet of #5 Party Dream (6-1), #7 Kobe’s Smile (5-2), #9 Amor Salvaje (9-2), and #10 Palacsinta (6-1).

• 50-cent Pick 5: 3 with 1,3 with 3,5,6 with 2,6,14 with 2,5,6,7,9,10 ($54)

Good luck!