Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of July 11

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Tuesday, July 11 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Thistledown, including a trifecta capitalizing on the Trifecta Tuesday promotion.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Trifecta Tuesday: Receive a 15% bonus on trifecta winnings excluding stake amount; up to $25 per day.

Picks and Plays

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 2: $5,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs, 3:01 p.m. ET)

#1 Lucky Phoenix (8-5) set the pace in a $30,000 maiden claimer racing one mile at Churchill Downs last month, only to weaken and finish last in a field of six. Dropping down sharply in class and distance can send Lucky Phoenix to the winner’s circle for hot trainer Eddie Kenneally, who has gone 2-for-3 (67%) at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet.

Let’s take advantage of the Trifecta Tuesday promotion and play Lucky Phoenix over #2 C C Revenge (5-1) and #5 Strong Demand (3-1) in the trifecta.

Selections

• #1 Lucky Phoenix (8-5)
• #2 C C Revenge (5-1)
• #5 Strong Demand (3-1)

Wagers

• $10 Trifecta: 1 with 2,5 with 2,5 ($20)

Thistledown: Race 7: Allowance (six furlongs, 3:50 p.m. ET)

#3 Amadevil (8-5) has won 10 of her 12 starts on the Ohio circuit, including a bevy of stakes. She misfired in her 2023 debut, fading to finish third in the Best of Ohio Diana S., but she set a fast pace that day and should be tough to beat while dropping in class for her second run of the season. It’s worth noting red-hot trainer David Wolochuk (a 45% winner at Thistledown this meet) wins at a 38% rate with horses running back for the second time following a layoff.

Three-time stakes winner #6 Back to Ohio (9-5) can complete the exacta for trainer Larry Rivelli, who has gone 3-for-3 at Thistledown this meet.

Selections

• #3 Amadevil (8-5)
• #6 Back to Ohio (9-5)
• #4 Candlelight Hours (3-1)

Wagers

• $25 Exacta: 3 with 6

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs, 5:36 p.m. ET)

#8 Candi Girl (5-2) debuts off encouraging workouts for red-hot trainer Brad Cox, a 39% winner at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet. The daughter of Twirling Candy wrapped up her preparations with half a mile from the Horseshoe Indianapolis starting gate in a quick :47 4/5.

Twirling Candy sires an excellent 18% winners from first-time starters, and Cox has gone 7-for-28 (25%) debuting juveniles in dirt sprints at Horseshoe Indianapolis since 2021, so all signs suggest Candi Girl is sitting on a winning run. Adding to the appeal is the fact she’ll be ridden by Marcelino Pedroza Jr., who has gone 8-for-12 (67%) teaming up with Cox over the last two months.

Let’s place a large win bet on Candi Girl, then key her over #1 April Clover (9-5) in the exacta.

Selections

• #8 Candi Girl (5-2)
• #1 April Clover (9-5)
• #9 Lilmorecraken (5-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #8 Candi Girl
• $10 Exacta: 8 with 1
  Total: $30

Good luck!