Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of July 14

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, July 14 at Saratoga and Ellis Park, including tickets for the $20,312 Super High 5 carryover at Ellis.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Ellis Park Let 8 Ride: Place win bets at Ellis Park on Friday through Sunday for a chance to win your share of a $5,000 weekly jackpot.
• Summer International Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any eligible race at Newmarket (UK).
• Colonial Downs $2,500 Late Pick 5 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 5 on Friday at Colonial Downs to earn your share of a $2,500 weekly jackpot.

Picks and Plays

Saratoga: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/8 miles, 1:44 p.m. ET)

#3 Dreamlike (3-5) hasn’t missed the trifecta in three starts, even while facing quality competition. After a couple of runner-up finishes against maiden special weight company at Gulfstream Park, Dreamlike stepped up in class for the Wood Memorial (G2) and ran third by a neck. The runner-up, Hit Show, had previously won the Withers (G3) and went on to finish fifth in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and fourth in the Belmont (G1).

Returning to the maiden ranks at Saratoga can send Dreamlike to the winner’s circle for the hot jockey/trainer duo of Irad Ortiz and Todd Pletcher. Since there isn’t much speed in this field, we’ll use the reasonably tactical longshot #6 Ride Up (10-1)—who has placed in six of his seven starts—to complete a cold exacta.

Selections

• #3 Dreamlike (3-5)
• #6 Ride Up (10-1)
• #4 Ocasek (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 3 with 6

Ellis Park: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 3:18 p.m. ET)

#5 Good Bali (8-5) showed promise in his debut sprinting five furlongs at Horseshoe Indianapolis, rallying from last place in a small field to finish second by one length. He’s bred to shine on grass and has the pedigree to stretch out over one mile, stamping the son of Bal a Bali as a key win threat for trainer Rusty Arnold, a 24% winner with second-time starters.

The first-time starters #3 British Sea (8-1) and #4 Born Flashy (10-1) are likewise bred for success on turf and can challenge for a place in the exacta.

Selections

• #5 Good Bali (8-5)
• #3 British Sea (8-1)
• #4 Born Flashy (10-1)

Wagers

• $12 to win on #5 Good Bali
• $4 Exacta: 5 with 3,4 ($8)
  Total: $20

Saratoga: Race 9: Coronation Cup S. (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 5:44 p.m. ET)

#4 Love Reigns (7-5) showed an affinity for this course and distance when dominating the 2022 Bolton Landing S. by 2 1/2 lengths over next-out Untapable S. winner Dense Macabre, who has since added the Herecomesthebride (G3) and Mamzelle S. to her record.

Love Reigns kicked off 2023 with an impressive victory in the 5 1/2-furlong Limestone S. at Keeneland, in which she overcame traffic to launch a powerful late rally and prevail by half a length. She looks formidable while returning to Saratoga for high-percentage trainer Wesley Ward, so we’ll key Love Reigns over #2 Love Appeals (3-1) and #8 Bosserati (8-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #4 Love Reigns (7-5)
• #2 Love Appeals (3-1)
• #8 Bosserati (8-1)

Wagers

• $17 Exacta: 4 with 2
• $13 Exacta: 4 with 8
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Ellis Park: Race 1: $20,312 Super High 5 carryover (12:45 p.m. ET)

Bettors struggled to solve the $1 Super High 5 last Sunday at Ellis Park. The wager was offered on seven races and went unsolved six times, including in the final four races of the day. As a result, there’s a quadruple carryover worth $20,312 up for grabs in Friday’s opening race at Ellis, a $10,000 claimer for horses who have never won two races.

Eight horses have entered the six-furlong dirt sprint, equating to 6,720 possible Super High 5 outcomes, a manageable number.

There aren’t any obvious standouts in the field, so let’s get a little creative and key #5 Lend It Tewmey (5-1) on top. He showed flashes of ability during a brief 2022 campaign, smashing a $20,000 maiden claimer sprinting six furlongs at Churchill Downs by 7 3/4 lengths and later coming home fifth in a $50,000 claimer over the same track and distance.

Lend It Tewmey recently returned from a long layoff to finish fifth in a $30,000 claimer racing seven furlongs at Churchill Downs, beaten half a dozen lengths after setting the early pace. The 79 Brisnet Speed rating he posted isn’t far off his best numbers from 2022 (85 and 80), so if Lend It Tewmey improves while dropping in class and distance for his second start back, he’ll be tough to catch. Keep in mind, the par winning Brisnet Speed rating for this type of race is only 81.

Who should we use underneath Lend It Tewmey? The deep-closing #7 Eternally Grateful (5-2) has never crossed the wire in first place, but he hasn’t finished out of the top five either. Dropping in class out of a $20,000 claimer should land Eternally Grateful a spot in the top three or four, and we’ll design our tickets accordingly.

#6 Boudin (3-1) can’t be underestimated either after pouncing to a decisive victory in a $10,000 maiden claimer at Ellis Park. Horses like #3 Vale (4-1), #4 Baby Quinn (8-1), and #8 One Cool Dude (8-1) also have the credentials to challenge on their best day.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• $1 Super High 5: 5 with 7 with 3,4,6 with 3,4,6,8 with 3,4,6,8 ($18)
• $1 Super High 5: 5 with 3,4,6 with 7 with 3,4,6,8 with 3,4,6,8 ($18)
• $1 Super High 5: 5 with 3,4,6 with 3,4,6,8 with 7 with 3,4,6,8 ($18)
  Total: $54

Good luck!