Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of July 25

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Tuesday, July 25 at Thistledown, Presque Isle Downs, and Assiniboia Downs, along with a live longshot for the $4,191 Pick 6 carryover at Finger Lakes.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Trifecta Tuesday: Receive a 15% bonus on trifecta winnings excluding stake amount; up to $25 per day.

Picks and Plays

Thistledown: Race 8: Allowance (six furlongs, 4:20 p.m. ET)

Two starts back, #7 Midnight Majesty (9-2) dominated a six-furlong allowance for non-winners of two races, leading all the way to win the six-furlong Thistledown sprint by 4 1/4 lengths with a career-best 91 Brisnet Speed rating. He followed up with a runner-up finish in an allowance for non-winners of three races, earning an 88 Brisnet Speed rating while again sprinting six furlongs at Thistledown.

Now Midnight Majesty is tackling an allowance for non-winners of four races, so technically he’s taking a subtle step up the class ladder. But his sharp Brisnet Speed ratings and excellent early speed suggest he’ll be tough to catch at a nice price.

Let’s bet Midnight Majesty to win, key him over #2 Mr. Bouma (5-2) in the exacta, and add #1 Doctor Wu (8-1) and #8 Trojan Tale (3-1) for a trifecta capitalizing on the Trifecta Tuesday promotion.

Selections

• #7 Midnight Majesty (9-2)
• #2 Mr. Bouma (5-2)
• #1 Doctor Wu (8-1)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #7 Midnight Majesty
• $10 Exacta: 7 with 2
• $2.50 Trifecta: 7 with 2 with 1,8 ($5)
  Total: $30

Presque Isle Downs: Race 5: Hard Spun S. (one mile and 70 yards on Tapeta, 4:48 p.m. ET)

#2 Buy Land and See (8-5) is the morning line favorite after winning three straight stakes on the Pennsylvania circuit with improving Brisnet Speed ratings of 95, 99, and 102. But he’s never run over a synthetic track, so switching to Tapeta is a question mark.

Perhaps we can beat Buy Land and See with #6 Nice Ace (5-2). The five-year-old gelding boasts an excellent 17-9-6-2 record over the Presque Isle Tapeta, which includes a runaway 5 1/2-length victory in the 2022 Hard Spun.

Let’s key Nice Ace over Buy Land and See in a cold exacta.

Selections

• #6 Nice Ace (5-2)
• #2 Buy Land and See (8-5)
• #1 He’s a Mess (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 6 with 2

Assiniboia Downs: Race 3: Debutante S. (five furlongs, 9:25 p.m. ET)

#1 Yellow Birdie (4-1) ran strongly in a 4 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Assiniboia Downs three weeks ago, setting the pace before staying on to finish second against male rivals. Her reward was a 65 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest number belonging to any horse in the Debutante field.

The Debutante field is restricted to fillies, so Yellow Birdie may find the competition a bit easier than in her debut. The fact pacesetters have won 49% of five-furlong dirt sprints at Assiniboia this meet cements Yellow Birdie as a formidable win threat.

Let’s bet Yellow Birdie to win and key her over #3 Mobil Creek (2-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #1 Yellow Birdie (4-1)
• #3 Mobil Creek (2-1)
• #6 Kontie (5-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Yellow Birdie
• $10 Exacta: 1 with 3
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Finger Lakes: Race 3: $4,191 Pick 6 carryover (2:13 p.m. ET)

Tuesday is a good day to play the Pick 6 at Finger Lakes, because the $1 wager features a non-jackpot carryover worth $4,191.

Mathematically speaking, this isn’t a difficult sequence. There are only 41 horses entered across the six races, averaging just over 6.8 per race. Furthermore, there are only 90,720 possible outcomes, a practically miniscule number for a Pick 6.

Nevertheless, the fields are competitive and it’s hard to find trustworthy singles. We thought about recommending #5 Tasty Wave (8-5) in Race 3, an $11,000 claimer for fillies and mares who have never won three races. But there’s a decent amount of speed among the five horses entered in this 5 1/2-furlong dash, so Tasty Wave—who likes to track or press the pace—might find herself vulnerable against stretch-running #3 Going Going Gone (9-5), who finished a nose ahead of Tasty Wave in a six-furlong dash over this track and class level on July 11.

So instead, we’ll suggest a live longshot: #2 Improvise (5-1) in Race 4. While 5-1 might not seem like a giant price at first glance, Improvise is the fourth choice in a six-horse field featuring a 3-2 morning line favorite, so if she wins she’ll surely provide a nice boost to the Pick 6 payoff.

Race 4 is a one-mile and 70-yard allowance for fillies and mares who have never won two races. The morning line favorite is #5 Ice Love, runner-up twice over this track, distance, and class level in recent weeks. She’s a logical contender, but needs to find a little something extra to take home top honors.

In contrast, Improvise is dropping in class after competing in $25,000, $32,000, and $40,000 allowance optional claimers at Gulfstream Park and Woodbine. She wasn’t particularly competitive in any of those contests, but she’s facing easier competition at Finger Lakes and her best Brisnet Speed ratings fit well here.

Improvise has competed exclusively on turf and synthetic so far, so there’s a chance switching to dirt will unlock improvement. She’s making her first start for high-percentage trainer Chris Englehart (a 27% winner at Finger Lakes this meet), and hot jockey John Davila Jr. (also a 27% winner this meet) is named to ride, so Improvise is well worth including in the Pick 6.

Good luck!