Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of July 28

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, July 28 at Gulfstream Park and Del Mar, along with horses to play (or oppose) in the $1,835 Pick 5 carryover at Belterra Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Summer International Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any eligible race at Randwick (AUS).
• $5,000 Coast to Coast Daily Challenge: Place winning $10+ win bets on selected races at Saratoga and Del Mar to earn your share of a $5,000 daily prize.

Picks and Plays

Gulfstream Park: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta, 1:18 p.m. ET)

Trainer Saffie Joseph has compiled a strong 6-for-16 (38%) record saddling experienced juveniles in Tapeta sprints at Gulfstream Park. That’s why we’re going to support Joseph’s #4 Full Nelson (5-2) on Friday.

Full Nelson debuted in a five-furlong maiden special weight over the Gulfstream dirt, finishing fourth after tracking the early pace. Switching surfaces can trigger improvement, especially when you consider how Joseph wins at a 23% rate with second-time starters.

#7 Jigsaw (3-1) and #5 Reminder (7-2) are the two we’ll add for an exacta play.

Selections

• #4 Full Nelson (5-2)
• #7 Jigsaw (3-1)
• #5 Reminder (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #4 Full Nelson
• $5 Exacta: 4 with 5,7 ($10)
  Total: $30

Del Mar: Race 6: $40,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (six furlongs, 9:30 p.m. ET)

#11 Power Surge (8-1) has only run once on dirt, narrowly wiring the 6 1/2-furlong Evening Jewel S. at Santa Anita over future stakes winner Connie Swingle. That determined victory yielded a 93 Brisnet Speed rating, one of the highest numbers belonging to any horse in Friday’s field.

Power Surge has only run once in the last year, dueling for the lead in a six-furlong turf allowance at Santa Anita on April 1 before weakening to finish fourth. Getting back on dirt off a series of sharp workouts at Santa Anita and Del Mar can help Power Surge bounce back to winning form.

At 8-1, Power Surge is worth betting to win and keying over #9 Coffee in Bed (5-2) and #6 Pequena Tormenta (4-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #11 Power Surge (8-1)
• #9 Coffee in Bed (5-2)
• #6 Pequena Tormenta (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #11 Power Surge
• $5 Exacta: 11 with 6,9 ($10)
  Total: $30

Del Mar: Race 8: $50,000 Maiden Claiming (five furlongs, 10:30 p.m. ET)

#9 Mr. Dreamcycle (3-1) has finished fifth, second, and fourth in his first three starts against maiden special weight competition on the Southern California circuit. His last two efforts saw him duel for the lead while earning Brisnet Speed ratings of 76 and 71, not far off the par winning number (77) for Friday’s conditions.

Trainer Steven Miyadi wins at a 28% rate with horses dropping in class from maiden special weight to maiden claiming competition, so Mr. Dreamcycle should be tough to beat while facing easier company. A win bet is in order, along with an exacta using #2 Ballymun (4-1) and #7 Sunrise Mischief (8-1) for second place.

Selections

• #9 Mr. Dreamcycle (3-1)
• #2 Ballymun (4-1)
• #7 Sunrise Mischief (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #9 Mr. Dreamcycle
• $5 Exacta: 9 with 2,7 ($10)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Belterra Park: Race 4: $1,835 Pick 5 carryover (12:55 p.m. ET)

Belterra Park racing has been cancelled on Friday due to the heat.

The Friday card at Belterra Park brings a $1,835 non-jackpot carryover in the 50-cent Pick 5.

Planning to play along, but not sure where to begin? We’ll get you started with a suggested single to build tickets around and a vulnerable favorite to oppose:

Best single: Race 4: #5 K Kid (5-2)

With seven horses in the entries, this six-furlong allowance for Ohio-breds has drawn one of the smallest fields in the Pick 5 sequence. That makes it an ideal spot to seek a single, since landing on the winning horse is mathematically easier.

We’ll throw our support behind K Kid, whose credentials are solid. K Kid hasn’t visited the winner’s circle since rallying to victory in a six-furlong maiden special weight for Ohio-breds at Thistledown last year, but the three-year-old gelding has finished second each of the last three times he’s sprinted against Ohio-bred allowance competition. In a six-furlong allowance on July 6 at Thistledown, K Kid rallied boldly in the final furlong to miss victory by a head.

K Kid’s state-bred allowance tries have produced sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 79, 75, and 70, stamping him as the fastest horse in Friday’s field. He appears to have found the perfect spot to secure his second career victory.

Vulnerable favorite: Race 7: #8 Sophisticated (5-2)

Sophisticated is certainly a logical contender in this one-mile $5,000 claimer for fillies and mares who have never won two races. She’s hit the board in each of her last three starts over this track, distance, and class level.

But in two of those starts, Sophisticated benefited from racing close to slow fractions. When she tracked a faster pace in her most recent outing, she faded down the homestretch to finish fourth, four lengths behind fellow pace-tracker #1 Tiz Biz (7-2) and 3 1/4 lengths behind frontrunning #2 Fabiola Princess (5-1).

The fact Sophisticated recently finished behind two of her Friday rivals suggests she’s a vulnerable favorite in the Pick 5. If we can beat her—perhaps with Tiz Biz, who still has upside while making only her second start over this class level—that should help boost the prospective payoff.

Good luck!