Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of June 13

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Tuesday, June 13 at Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with a horse to single in the $6,081 Pick 5 carryover at Presque Isle Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Trifecta Tuesday: Receive a 15% bonus on trifecta winnings excluding stake amount; up to $25 per day.

Picks and Plays

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 1: $10,000 Maiden Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs, 2:30 p.m. ET)

#6 Snuggler (1-1) nearly won a six-furlong sprint over this track and class level on May 23, leading into midstretch before weakening late to finish second by three-quarters of a length. In doing so, Snuggler pulled six lengths clear of the third-place finisher.

Snuggler has finished second in both her starts this season, and trainer Randy Klopp wins at a 29% rate with horses running back for the third time following a layoff, so Snuggler is eligible to break through with a maiden victory on Tuesday. Let’s single her to start Pick 3 and double wagers.

Selections

• #6 Snuggler (1-1)
• #8 Evil Matters (4-1)
• #4 Cabin Abby (10-1)

Wagers

• $20 Double: 6 with 1
• $10 Pick 3: 6 with 1 with 3
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (one mile and 70 yards, 3:01 p.m. ET)

Since 2021, trainer Brad Cox has gone 3-for-10 (30%) debuting three-year-olds in dirt routes at Horseshoe Indianapolis. This bodes well for #1 Aged Truth (5-2), a son of Tapit acquired for $350,000 as a yearling. Aged Truth enters off sharp workouts at Horseshoe Indianapolis and has the pedigree to succeed racing two turns.

Let’s single Aged Truth in double and Pick 3 wagers and key him over #5 Illegal (20-1) in a small exacta.

Selections

• #1 Aged Truth (5-2)
• #5 Illegal (20-1)
• #6 Pursuit of Power (9-5)

Wagers

• $25 Double: 1 with 3
• $5 Exacta: 1 with 5
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 3: $8,000 Starter Optional Claiming (one mile and 70 yards, 3:32 p.m. ET)

#3 Silver Moon Road (7-5) has won seven of his eight starts at Horseshoe Indianapolis, including a recent $5,000 starter allowance racing one mile. The five-year-old gelding has lots of tactical speed and figures to secure one of his typical pacesetting victories while sticking to his favorite track.

In addition to singling Silver Moon Road to conclude our double and Pick 3 bets, we’ll capitalize on the Trifecta Tuesday promotion and play him on top of a trifecta using #2 Dropped Anchor (5-1), #1 Bluemoon Justice (4-1), and #5 Midnight J J (10-1) underneath.

Selections

• #3 Silver Moon Road (7-5)
• #2 Dropped Anchor (5-1)
• #1 Bluemoon Justice (4-1)

Wagers

• $5 Trifecta: 3 with 1,2 with 1,2,5 ($20)

Carryover Watch

Presque Isle Downs: Race 1: $6,081 Pick 5 carryover (3:00 p.m. ET)

If you’re sitting down to plan your Tuesday wagers, and you’re thinking “I sure would like to play a non-jackpot Pick 5 carryover today,” then you’re in luck. Presque Isle Downs is ready to oblige with a $6,081 prize pool up for grabs in the 50-cent Early Pick 5.

It’s a deceptively tricky sequence to decipher. The five races contain a total of 34 horses, averaging 6.8 per race—not too difficult, right? There are only 14,112 possible outcomes before scratches, a very manageable number for a Pick 5.

The problem is, the races are highly competitive. It’s difficult to find singles worth building tickets around, so ticket costs can quickly add up.

If you’re determined to find a single, you might check out Race 1, a $5,000 claimer for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs on Tapeta. With only six horses in the field, it’s mathematically a good place to look for a single, since picking any horse at random would yield the winner 17% of the time.

There are many viable contenders, but our preference is for #3 Down to Earth (5-2). While she hasn’t run quite as fast on the Brisnet Speed rating scale as some of her rivals, she’s a picture of consistency (cracking the exacta in six of her last seven starts at Presque Isle) and enters in winning form.

Indeed, Down to Earth was sharp in a $5,000 claimer sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs at Presque Isle last month, tracking the pace from second place before kicking on to beat Don’t Make Me Beg by one length. The latter mare returned to win a $5,000 claimer sprinting six furlongs at Presque Isle, flattering Down to Earth’s form.

Down to Earth’s tactical speed, strong recent races, consistency, and proven affinity for Presque Isle are all appealing factors in her favor. Throw in the fact she’ll be ridden by hot jockey Antonio Gallardo—a 26% winner at Presque Isle this meet who has gone 1-for-1 teaming up with trainer Louis Ruberto over the last two months—and Down to Earth looks like as logical a single as any in this tricky Pick 5.

Good luck!