Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of June 15

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, June 15 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Ellis Park, along with horses to single in the $34,226 Pick 5 carryover at Charles Town.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Hoosier Park $1,000 Pick 4 Hit It & Split It: Hit the late Pick 4 on Thursdays at Hoosier Park to win your share of a $1,000 weekly jackpot.
• Ellis Park Thursday Leaderboard: Place $10 win bets on Thursdays at Ellis Park to compete for your share of a $2,500 weekly jackpot.

Picks and Plays

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs, 2:10 p.m. ET)

#5 Commando Joe (3-1) is the fastest horse in this field on paper, having posted a 70 Brisnet Speed rating when finishing fourth in his debut against non-state-restricted maiden special weight competition at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

Now Commando Joe is tackling a maiden special weight restricted to Indiana-breds. The par winning Brisnet Speed rating for Thursday’s conditions is 70, so he’s already fast enough to vie for victory. Trainer Randy Matthews is a 19% winner with second-time starters (far exceeding his 5% lifetime strike rate with first-time starters), so Commando Joe is eligible to move forward in his second try.

Let’s key Commando Joe over #2 Forever Lasting (8-5) in the exacta.

Selections

• #5 Commando Joe (3-1)
• #2 Forever Lasting (8-5)
• #1 Halo Love (8-1)

Wagers

• $25 Exacta: 5 with 2

Ellis Park: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs, 2:20 p.m. ET)

Since 2020, trainer Brad Cox has compiled a strong 11-for-40 (28%) record debuting juveniles on dirt at Ellis Park. This bodes well for Cox’s unraced two-year-old #12 Timberlake (7-2), a son of four-time leading North American sire Into Mischief.

Into Mischief sires a lofty 16% winners from first-time starters, and Timberlake enters off sharp workouts at Churchill Downs, including a bullet half-mile from the starting gate in :47 1/5. Under jockey Florent Geroux (a 30% winner teaming up with Cox over the last two months), Timberlake is a compelling win choice.

We’ll look toward #1 Pass the Hat (5-1) and #11 Phreddie Mac (12-1) to complete the exacta.

Selections

• #12 Timberlake (7-2)
• #1 Pass the Hat (5-1)
• #11 Phreddie Mac (12-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #12 Timberlake
• $5 Exacta: 12 with 1,11 ($10)

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (one mile and 70 yards, 4:45 p.m. ET)

#6 Giada (5-1) showed speed in her debut sprinting six furlongs at Turfway Park, carving out the pace before weakening to finish second by half a length. She subsequently got run off her feet in a fast-paced six-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs, finishing ninth.

Giada is meeting a field without much speed while stretching out around two turns at Horseshoe Indianapolis. She’s eligible to shake loose on an easy lead and snatch top honors for hot trainer Brad Cox, a 35% winner at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet.

Throw in leading jockey Marcelino Pedroza (a 44% winner teaming up with Cox over the last two months), and Giada is worth betting to win and keying over #4 Two Minute Lick (6-1) and #8 Cloak of Mercy (7-2) in the exacta.

Selections

• #6 Giada (5-1)
• #4 Two Minute Lick (6-1)
• #8 Cloak of Mercy (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Giada (5-1)
• $5 Exacta: 6 with 4,8 ($10)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Charles Town: Race 4: $34,226 Pick 5 carryover (8:25 p.m. ET)

Thursday evening is shaping up to be an exciting time at Charles Town, where there’s a $34,226 non-jackpot Pick 5 carryover up for grabs.

Planning to play along, but not sure where to begin? We’ve got you covered with a pair of suggested singles to build tickets around:

Race 4: Allowance (4 1/2 furlongs): #7 Fancy Her Up (6-5)

Pacesetters have won 49% of 4 1/2-furlong sprints at Charles Town since Jan. 4, and that’s from a sample size of 239 races. Furthermore, horses drawn in posts 4-7 have won at an average rate of 14%, giving them an advantage over horses drawn in the three innermost post positions.

These stats bode well for Fancy Her Up, a speed horse drawn in post 7. In her first start since transferring to the care of trainer Kristy Petty, Fancy Her Up set the pace over this track, distance, and class level on May 27, only to weaken late and finish second by a neck.

That performance yielded a 78 Brisnet Speed rating. Fancy Her Up has posted 70+ numbers in nine of her last 10 starts, and she’s the fastest filly on paper since none of her rivals have posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 77. Taking all of these factors together, Fancy Her Up looks like a logical single.

Race 7: Allowance (4 1/2 furlongs): #6 Honeyquist (6-5)

Honeyquist has set the pace in six of his seven starts and has drawn well in post 6, so like Fancy Her Up, Honeyquist has a statistical advantage in this 4 1/2-furlong dash. Not that he necessarily needs it; his talent alone figures to win the day.

Honeyquist hasn’t missed the trifecta in seven starts (cracking the exacta six times) and boasts a 3-2-1-0 record sprinting 4 1/2 furlongs at Charles Town. He wired maiden special weight and allowance races by daylight margins, and last time out he finished second in the Coin Collector S.

Dropping back down into the allowance ranks should make Honeyquist tough to catch. He owns the best Brisnet Speed rating in Thursday’s field and has the red-hot jockey/trainer duo of Arnaldo Bocachica and Anthony Farrior in his corner, so Honeyquist is a logical choice to single in the Pick 5.

Good luck!