Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of June 16

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, June 16 at Monmouth Park and Ellis Park, along with a ticket for the $1,615 Super High 5 carryover at Ellis Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Rest of the World $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any eligible race at Rosehill (AUS).

Picks and Plays

Monmouth Park: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs, 2:56 p.m. ET)

Last year at this time, trainer Todd Pletcher sent out future stakes winner Munnys Gold to obliterate a five-furlong maiden special weight for juvenile fillies at Monmouth Park. He’ll seek to do the same with #6 Lady Blitz (5-2), a daughter of Florida Derby (G1) winner Audible.

Lady Blitz clocked a bullet half-mile from the Monmouth starting gate in :48 last Saturday and should be ready to take home top honors. The fast-working duo of #9 Ilikeitlikethat (3-1) and #4 Anajuliaforever (9-2) can battle for places in the exacta and trifecta.

Selections

• #6 Lady Blitz (5-2)
• #9 Ilikeitlikethat (3-1)
• #4 Anajuliaforever (9-2)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: 6 with 4,9 ($20)
• $2.50 Trifecta: 6 with 4,9 with 3,4,9 ($10)
  Total: $30

Ellis Park: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs, 4:14 p.m. ET)

#7 Lyrical Pardon (3-1) looks like a filly primed to win on debut. As a daughter of Triple Crown winner Justify (who sires 19% winners from first-time starters) out of a mare by champion two-year-old Macho Uno, Lyrical Pardon has the pedigree to shine from an early age.

Lyrical Pardon enters off sharp workouts for trainer Tom Amoss (a 17% winner with first-time starters) and will be ridden by Edgar Morales, a 19% winner teaming up with Amoss over the last two months. Let’s bet her to win and key her over #3 Streaming Now (5-1), #5 Savannamarie (12-1), and #2 Pure Connection (10-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #7 Lyrical Pardon (3-1)
• #3 Streaming Now (5-1)
• #5 Savannamarie (12-1)

Wagers

• $18 to win on #7 Lyrical Pardon (3-1)
• $4 Exacta: 7 with 2,3,5 ($12)
  Total: $30

Ellis Park: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs, 5:11 p.m. ET)

#2 Copper Top (8-1) is bred to win from an early age. Sire Copper Bullet won the Saratoga Special (G2) at age two, while dam Simple Surprise nabbed the Bolton Landing S. as a juvenile and half-brother Gunite took the Hopeful (G1) at age two.

Copper Top enters off a respectable series of half-mile workouts on the Kentucky circuit and has a shot to factor for hot trainer Steve Asmussen, who has gone 10-4-3-1 (40%) since Ellis Park opened for racing. At 8-1, Copper Top is worth betting to win and playing over #5 Too Fast for You (5-1) and #3 Buchu (12-1) in a small exacta.

Selections

• #2 Copper Top (8-1)
• #5 Too Fast for You (5-1)
• #3 Buchu (12-1)

Wagers

• $12 to win on #2 Copper Top
• $4 Exacta: 2 with 3,5 ($8)
  Total: $20

Carryover Watch

Ellis Park: Race 2: $1,615 Super High 5 carryover (2:20 p.m. ET)

If you want to win a share of the $1,615 Super High 5 carryover up for grabs on Friday at Ellis Park, you’ll have to decipher Race 2, a $40,000 maiden claimer for two-year-olds sprinting five furlongs.

It’s a tricky race to handicap because many of the nine entrants are dropping in class off uncompetitive performances against maiden special weight company. There are also a couple of first-time starters in the mix, so assembling a winning ticket for the $1 wager won’t be easy.

That said, there are a couple of seemingly formidable contenders we can build tickets around. The first is #2 Des Doigts (5-2), an unraced son of early-maturing Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) winner Hootenanny, who sires a lofty 37% winners from first-time starters.

Des Doigts has put together a lengthy work tab for high-percentage trainer Wesley Ward, whose win rate with horses debuting in maiden claimers stands at a spectacular 38%. Debuting for a $40,000 tag can be seen as a positive for Des Doigts’s win chances, and the fact he’ll be guided by hot apprentice jockey Walter Rodriguez (who rides with a five-pound weight allowance) cements Des Doigts as a key win threat.

The other must-use contender is #6 Patch O’Brien (3-1), who debuted with a respectable third-place finish against maiden special weight competition at Churchill Downs last month. That effort produced a 74 Brisnet Speed rating, easily the highest number belonging to any of the experienced runners in Friday’s field. Dropping in class from maiden special weight to maiden claiming competition is a winning move 19% of the time for trainer Eddie Kenneally, and the presence of jockey Luis Saez (a 34% winner teaming up with Kenneally over the last two months) adds to the appeal.

If we box Des Doigts and Patch O’Brien in the top two slots of the Super High 5, counting on one to win and the other to finish second, we can spread a bit deeper underneath and have a solid shot to cash a winning ticket.

• $1 Super High 5: 2,6 with 2,6 with 1,3,5 with 1,3,5,7,9 with 1,3,5,7,9 ($72)

Good luck!