Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of June 20

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Tuesday, June 20 at Thistledown and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with horses to single in the $5,535 Pick 5 carryover at Penn National.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Trifecta Tuesday: Receive a 15% bonus on trifecta winnings excluding stake amount; up to $25 per day.

Picks and Plays

Thistledown: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs, 1:50 p.m. ET)

Over the last two months, hot apprentice jockey J. G. Torrealba (who rides with a five-pound weight allowance) and trainer Tim Hamm have gone 3-for-4 (75%) teaming up together. Their lone miss came with #8 Hottie Spottie (7-2), who finished third when debuting in a five-furlong maiden special weight at Thistledown earlier this month.

Hottie Spottie made a nice middle move to challenge for the lead before flattening out down the homestretch. If he moves forward at all in his second start, he can deliver victory over a field comprised largely of first-time starters.

We’ll keep things simple, betting Hottie Spottie to win and playing him over stablemate #2 Red Chili Pepper (5-2) in a small exacta.

Selections

• #8 Hottie Spottie (7-2)
• #2 Red Chili Pepper (5-2)
• #6 After Sunrise (8-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #8 Hottie Spottie
• $5 Exacta: 8 with 2
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 2:30 p.m. ET)

#3 Magnificent Mile (5-2) might be a 0-for-9 maiden, but five of his defeats have come in route races. He’s cracked the exacta in three of his four sprint starts, including when second over this track, distance, and class level on April 18. His one-length defeat generated a strong 90 Brisnet Speed rating, and Magnificent Mile’s form was flattered when the victorious Retained came back to win a starter allowance at Churchill Downs.

Returning to Horseshoe Indianapolis after a pair of starts at Churchill Downs can trigger a winning run from Magnificent Mile, who is easily the fastest horse in Tuesday’s field from a Brisnet Speed rating standpoint.

Let’s bet Magnificent Mile to win and key him over #8 Rivoli (9-2) and #1 Noble Reality (5-1) in the exacta and trifecta, playing the latter ticket to capitalize on the Trifecta Tuesday promotion.

Selections

• #3 Magnificent Mile (5-2)
• #8 Rivoli (9-2)
• #1 Noble Reality (5-1)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #3 Magnificent Mile
• $5 Exacta: 3 with 1,8 ($10)
• $2.50 Trifecta: 3 with 1,8 with 1,8 ($5)
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs, 4:34 p.m. ET)

Trainer Genaro Garcia doesn’t often saddle ready-to-win first-time starters, but #8 Shagbark (7-2) may be one of the exceptions. Garcia has been hot at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet, winning at a 20% rate, and Shagbark enters off a couple of decent half-mile workouts from the Horseshoe Indianapolis starting gate.

Throw in hot jockey Marcelino Pedroza Jr. (a 24% winner teaming up with Garcia over the last two months), and Shagbark is worth betting to win at his 7-2 morning line odds.

Selections

• #8 Shagbark (7-2)
• #1 It’s Last Call (3-1)
• #4 Inclined (9-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #8 Shagbark

Carryover Watch

Penn National: Race 4: $5,535 Pick 5 carryover (7:28 p.m. ET)

Feel like chasing a Pick 5 carryover this Tuesday? You could take aim at the $411,551 Pick 5 carryover up for grabs at Parx Racing, but that’s a jackpot-style wager that pays out the carryover only in the event that a unique winning ticket is sold, which doesn’t happen often at all.

If you’d rather chase a non-jackpot carryover, stick to the Pennsylvania circuit and check out Penn National, where the $1 Pick 5 features a $5,535 carryover. It’s a smaller prize pool, true, but if you assemble all five winners you’ll win at least part of the carryover, adding value to the betting proposition.

We’re focusing on the Penn National Pick 5 today, highlighting a pair of potential singles to build tickets around:

Race 7: $8,000 Claiming (six furlongs): #6 Rose Valley (2-1)

Rose Valley was tons the best in a $16,000 maiden claimer for Pennylvania-breds at Penn National in April, tracking the early pace before seizing command to win by 4 1/2 lengths. Her reward was a sharp 71 Brisnet Speed rating, one of the highest numbers in Tuesday’s field.

Rose Valley subsequently tackled a non-state-restricted $10,000 claimer sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs at Penn National, finishing second. She was claimed out of that contest by Brandon Kulp, a 28% winner with new claiming acquisitions and a 40% winner with horses dropping in class off a claim. Descending into an $8,000 claimer for Pennsylvania-breds should make Rose Valley mighty tough to beat under hot jockey Angel Rodriguez, a 24% winner at Penn National this meet.

Race 8: $4,000 Claiming (one mile): #4 Mine to Hold (2-1)

Mine to Hold has been a bit unlucky not to win a race at Penn National this spring. He’s finished second in each of his last two starts over this track, both times while competing in $4,000 claimers.

There isn’t much speed on paper in Tuesday’s field, so Mine to Hold—who set and tracked the pace in his last two starts—has every opportunity to secure an uncontested lead. His Brisnet Speed ratings are strong, and trainer Panagiotis Synnefias wins at a 23% rate in claiming races, so Mine to Hold is shaping up as a worthy single to close out the Pick 5.

Good luck!