Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of June 22

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, June 22 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Ellis Park, including tickets for the $4,847 Super High 5 carryover at Ellis.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Hoosier Park $1,000 Pick 4 Hit It & Split It: Hit the late Pick 4 on Thursdays at Hoosier Park to win your share of a $1,000 weekly jackpot.
• Ellis Park Thursday Leaderboard: Place $10 win bets on Thursdays at Ellis Park to compete for your share of a $2,500 weekly jackpot.

Picks and Plays

Ellis Park: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs, 1:14 p.m. ET)

Trainer Kenny McPeek doesn’t often win with first-time starters, but #5 Hey Joe Joe (6-1) can be an exception. He’s a son of Constitution (who sires a lofty 17% debut winners) out of Peach Brew, winner of the Oklahoma Classics Lassie S. as a juvenile and previously the dam of two-year-old Slide Show S. winner Sydney Freeman.

Hey Joe Joe has been training fast at Keeneland, even clocking a bullet half-mile from the starting gate in :47 4/5, so let’s bet him to win and play him over #8 Lambo (5-2) and #2 Golden Symphony (8-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #5 Hey Joe Joe (6-1)
• #8 Lambo (5-2)
• #2 Golden Symphony (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #5 Hey Joe Joe
• $5 Exacta: 5 with 2,8 ($10)
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs, 2:41 p.m. ET)

Since 2021, trainer Brad Cox has gone 6-for-27 (22%) debuting juveniles in dirt sprints at Horseshoe Indianapolis. This bodes well for #2 Mike From P’burg (8-5), a son of early-maturing sprinter Kantharos.

There are many other positive stats in Mike From P’burg’s favor. Kantharos sires 14% winners from first-time starters. Cox has gone 7-for-20 (35%) at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet. And jockey Marcelino Pedroza Jr. (the leading rider at this track) has gone 5-for-11 (45%) teaming up with Cox over the last two months.

Let’s single Mike From P’burg to start a double wager and then key him over #6 Master of Disguise (15-1) in a small exacta.

Selections

• #2 Mike From P’burg (8-5)
• #6 Master of Disguise (15-1)
• #5 Kennel Club (9-2)

Wagers

• $20 Double: 2 with 3
• $5 Exacta: 2 with 6
  Total: $25

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 3: Allowance (one mile on turf, 3:12 p.m. ET)

#3 Joyful Applause (8-5) broke her maiden over the Horseshoe Indianapolis turf course and has since cracked the trifecta in five straight races on the Kentucky circuit, including the Mrs. Revere (G2) at Churchill Downs. Returning to Horseshoe Indianapolis can send Joyful Applause to the winner’s circle for trainer Helen Pitts, a 31% winner with shippers.

We’ll single Joyful Applause to conclude our double wager and then bet her to win for good measure.

Selections

• #3 Joyful Applause (8-5)
• #6 Justifiable Belle (4-1)
• #1 Macadamia (6-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #3 Joyful Applause (8-5)

Carryover Watch

Ellis Park: Race 1: $4,847 Super High 5 carryover (8:25 p.m. ET)

No one hit the final Super High 5 offered on Sunday at Ellis Park, which means there’s a $4,847 carryover up for grabs when racing resumes at the Kentucky oval this Thursday.

The prize pool for the $1 wager is up for grabs in Race 1, a $10,000 maiden claimer taking place over six furlongs on dirt. With eight entries, there are 6,720 possible Super High 5 outcomes—not an unmanageable number by any means.

The morning line favorite is #1 King of Kentucky (9-5), and his credentials are respectable. He set the pace over this track, distance, and class level on May 21 before weakening in the final furlong to finish second by half a length. King of Kentucky pulled 12 1/4 lengths clear of the third-place finisher and earned a 78 Brisnet Speed rating (four points higher than par for these conditions), so he’s capable of vying for victory in his first start since being claimer by hot trainer Bentley Combs.

But #8 Swaggish (3-1) is a potentially formidable challenger. Conditioned by hot trainer Steve Amussen (a 27% winner at Ellis this year), Swaggish started three times against maiden special weight and $60,000 maiden claiming competition during the winter at Oaklawn Park. On each occasion, Swaggish showed pace-tracking speed before tiring to finish off the board.

Dropping down multiple class levels is a 25% winning move for Asmussen, so descending into a $10,000 maiden claimer should make Swaggish competitive under red-hot jockey Tyler Gaffalione, a 30% winner at Ellis this year. The fact Swaggish has been freshened since March and gelded in the interim adds to the appeal.

We’ll play King of Kentucky and Swaggish in equal strength, counting on one to win and the other to finish in the top three. Underneath, we’ll emphasize #4 Scotch No Rocks (5-1)—who has placed multiple times over this class level—and the class-dropping duo of #3 Valuable Cargo (6-1) and #2 Camp Gray (8-1).

• $1 Super High 5: 1,8 with 1,8 with 3,4 with 2,3,4 with ALL ($32)
• $1 Super High 5: 1,8 with ALL with 1,8 with 3,4 with 2,3,4 ($32)
  Total: $64

Good luck!