Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of June 23

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, June 23 at Belmont Park, Ellis Park, and Prairie Meadows, including tickets for the $2,539 Super High 5 carryover at Ellis and horses to single in the $43,810 Pick 6 carryover at Belmont.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Rest of the World $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any eligible race at Randwick (AUS).
• Royal Ascot $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Royal Ascot (UK).
• Ellis Park $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races at Ellis Park.
• Los Alamitos $1,000 Leaderboard: Place $10+ win bets at Los Alamitos to compete for your share of a $1,000 daily jackpot.

Picks and Plays

Belmont Park: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs, 1:05 p.m. ET)

#2 May Princess (7-2) looks ready to factor on debut. Sire Solomini was an early-maturing runner who placed in a trio of Grade 1 races at age two, and May Princess has turned in a number of sharp workouts over the Belmont Park training track, including a bullet half-mile from the starting gate in :47.01.

Throw in hot jockey Jose Ortiz (a 23% winner at Belmont this meet and a 40% winner teaming up with trainer David Donk over the last two months), and May Princess is an appealing choice. We’ll bet her to win and key her over #3 Sorority Party (2-1) and #5 Cara’s Time (5-2) in the exacta.

Selections

• #2 May Princess (7-2)
• #3 Sorority Party (2-1)
• #5 Cara’s Time (5-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #2 May Princess
• $5 Exacta: 2 with 3,5 ($10)
  Total: $30

Ellis Park: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs, 1:14 p.m. ET)

#4 Mystical Chant (3-1) sold for $345,000 as a two-year-old in training and has put together a sharp work tab for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, a 28% winner at Ellis Park this year. Under the guidance of jockey Florent Geroux (4-for-8, 50% teaming up with Asmussen over the last two months), Mystical Chant is a logical favorite to win on debut.

At 3-1, a win bet is in order. We’ll also play Mystical Chant over #5 Saratoga Secret (4-1) and #6 Bossy Bruin Gal (4-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #4 Mystical Chant (3-1)
• #5 Saratoga Secret (4-1)
• #6 Bossy Bruin Gal (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #4 Mystical Chant (3-1)
• $5 Exacta: 4 with 5,6 ($10)
  Total: $30

Prairie Meadows: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (4 1/2 furlongs, 9:08 p.m. ET)

#3 Specialsortastorm (7-5) is a logical favorite. The two-year-old son of Midnight Storm has posted a couple of bullet workouts, and he’s a half-brother to the early-maturing Wildatlanticstorm, a Prairie Meadows maiden winner who nabbed the Remington Springboard Mile and Clever Trevor S. as a juvenile.

But Specialsortastorm faces a potentially formidable rival in the form of #6 Jupiter Mission (5-1). While Jupiter Mission’s work tab isn’t especially flashy, trainer Jon Arnett has compiled a strong 24-5-3-6 (21%) record debuting juveniles at Prairie Meadows since 2020. Throw in hot jockey Alex Birzer (a 28% winner at Prairie Meadows this meet and a 30% winner teaming up with Arnett over the last two months), and Jupiter Mission is a logical win threat.

Let’s box Specialsortastorm and Jupiter Mission in the exacta.

Selections

• #3 Specialsortastorm (7-5)
• #6 Jupiter Mission (5-1)
• #4 Kissed a Cadet (12-1)

Wagers

• $12 Exacta: 3 with 6
• $8 Exacta: 6 with 3
  Total: $20

Carryover Watch

Ellis Park: Race 2: $2,539 Super High 5 carryover (1:14 p.m. ET)

The above-mentioned second race at Ellis Park features a $2,539 carryover in the $1 Super High 5.

It’s a tough race in which to play the Super High 5 since all eight of the entrants are unraced, and a case can be made for any of them to crack the top five. But at least there are only 6,720 possible Super High 5 outcomes to analyze, a manageable number.

We can reduce that number down to 840 if we key #4 Mystical Chant (3-1) on top, just like we will in the exacta. Counting on #5 Saratoga Secret (4-1) and #6 Bossy Bruin Gal (4-1) to finish in the top five also reduces costs.

A ticket along these lines should have a reasonable chance to hit without breaking the bank:

• $1 Super High 5: 4 with 5,6 with 5,6 with 3,7,8 with 1,3,7,8 ($18)
• $1 Super High 5: 4 with 5,6 with 3,7,8 with 5,6 with 1,3,7,8 ($18)
• $1 Super High 5: 4 with 5,6 with 3,7,8 with 1,3,7,8 with 5,6 ($18)
  Total: $54

Belmont Park: Race 4: $43,810 Pick 6 carryover (2:38 p.m. ET)

The Friday card at Belmont Park brings a $43,810 non-jackpot carryover in the $1 Pick 6, a lucrative standout in a sea of jackpot-style carryovers.

Our best recommendation for a single comes right off the bat in Race 4, a $40,000 claimer for fillies and mares who have never won two races. The distance is one mile on dirt, and there’s only one definite frontrunner in the six-horse field: #2 Chasing Daylight (9-5).

Chasing Daylight has only run three times, and her two best efforts have come over this track and distance. Almost exactly one year ago, she wired a maiden special weight for New York-breds by 4 3/4 lengths, earning an 85 Brisnet Speed rating. More recently, she finished third in a $25,000 claimer for non-winners of two races, earning an 82 Brisnet Speed rating.

Stepping up to the $40,000 level is a question mark at first glance, but the par winning Brisnet Speed rating for Friday’s conditions is only 81, a number Chasing Daylight has twice exceeded. This field hasn’t come up especially deep on paper, so if Chasing Daylight shakes loose on an easy lead, she can cruise to the winner’s circle as a Pick 6 single.

Another possible single candidate can be found in Race 5, a five-furlong maiden special weight for New York-bred juveniles. Morning line favorite #5 Works for Me (5-2) dueled for the lead in his debut against non-state-restricted competition at Churchill Downs last month, ultimately finishing third by less than one length. The runner-up, Gold Sweep, came right back to win the Tremont S. at Belmont Park.

Works for Me posted an 86 Brisnet Speed rating in his debut, higher than the 84 that stands as par for Friday’s conditions. He’s maybe not quite as reliable a single as Chasing Daylight since there are many first-time starters in Friday’s field, and it’s possible one could debut with a giant effort. But bettors playing the Pick 6 on a budget can feel reasonably confident singling Works for Me off his sharp performance against tough competition at Churchill Downs.

Good luck!