Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of June 27

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Tuesday, June 27 at Thistledown and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with horses to single in the $79,740 Pick 5 carryover at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Trifecta Tuesday: Receive a 15% bonus on trifecta winnings excluding stake amount; up to $25 per day.

Picks and Plays

Thistledown: Race 3: $25,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (six furlongs, 1:50 p.m. ET)

#6 Squid (5-2) has been in hot form, rattling off three consecutive victories by daylight margins. In the Best of Ohio Diana S. sprinting six furlongs at Belterra Park last month, Squid romped by 5 1/2 lengths against a deep field including multiple stakes winners Tivis and Amadevil.

In the Best of Ohio, Squid posted a career-best 98 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest number belonging to any horse in Tuesday’s field. She looks ready to win right back over #1 Candlelight Hours (2-1) and #5 Wine Me Up Baby (8-1).

Selections

• #6 Squid (5-2)
• #1 Candlelight Hours (2-1)
• #5 Wine Me Up Baby (8-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 6 with 1,5 (30)

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 3: Allowance (1 1/16 miles, 3:32 p.m. ET)

#6 Forrest City (5-2) has finished second in his last two starts against allowance competition at Horseshoe Indianapolis, earning sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 91 and 87. Only one of his rivals has earned a number higher than 79, that being #1 Auto Glide (2-1), who threw down an 88 when dominating a maiden special weight at Horseshoe Indianapolis last month.

But Auto Glide achieved his big figure after tracking a pedestrian pace. Forrest City has shown superior early speed and figures to hold a significant tactical advantage in this small field, so we’ll single Forrest City to start a double wager and key him over Auto Glide and #5 Fire Baby (9-2) in an exacta.

Selections

• #6 Forrest City (5-2)
• #1 Auto Glide (2-1)
• #5 Fire Baby (9-2)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: 6 with 1,5 ($20)
• $20 Double: 6 with 4
  Total: $40

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 4: Allowance (1 1/16 miles, 4:03 p.m. ET)

In terms of Brisnet Speed ratings, #4 Louder Than Words (7-5) is a standout in this field of Indiana-bred fillies and mares. Whereas none of her rivals have posted a number higher than 78, Louder Than Words put up numbers of 82, 82, and 80 when finishing second in a trio of stakes last year.

Louder Than Words kicked off 2023 with a runner-up finish in a one-mile allowance at Horseshoe Indianapolis, in which she was compromised by rallying from midfield against a slow pace. The winner, Bluelightspecial, came right back to win the Hoosier Breeders Sophomore H.

Even in defeat, Louder Than Words posted a 78 Brisnet Speed rating. If she moves forward at all in her second run of the season, she can cruise to victory at a short price. We’ll single Louder Than Words to conclude our double wager, then bet her over longshot #7 Fashion Diva (12-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #4 Louder Than Words (7-5)
• #7 Fashion Diva (12-1)
• #1 Quick and Easy (12-1)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: 4 with 7

Carryover Watch

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 4: $79,740 Pick 5 carryover (4:03 p.m. ET)

Bettors will be hard-pressed to find a more value-oriented betting proposition than Tuesday’s “Late Fire 5” at Horseshoe Indianapolis. The 50-cent Pick 5 wager boasts a low 11.99% takeout rate and a $79,740 non-jackpot carryover, so it’s difficult to think of a reason not to play.

It’s a competitive sequence on paper, featuring a total of 51 horses (averaging 10.2 per race) before scratches. All told, there are 89,180 possible outcomes.

Looking for singles to build tickets around? You have to start with the above-mentioned #4 Louder Than Words (7-5) in Race 4. We’ve already outlined our case for Louder Than Words as a runner worthy of singling in the double, and we’ll extend our support to include singling her in the Pick 5.

We’ll bookend the sequence with a single in Race 8, a maiden special weight for Indiana-bred fillies and mares racing one mile on turf. At first glance, this might seem like a strange place to seek a single, since there are 12 horses in the main body of the field and two more on the also-eligible list.

But even in this large field, we’re willing to bet that #2 Tizzy Justice (9-5) is a standout. The three-year-old filly has already defeated eight of the 13 entrants and enters off two strong efforts over this course and class level. On May 15, she rallied from midfield to finish second by a head after leading past the eighth pole. On June 6, she rallied from the back half of the pack to again finish second by a head after leading in midstretch.

Tizzy Justice was a bit unlucky not to win one of those contests, so her third attempt over this class level should be the charm. Her rivals are unimposing on paper, so Tizzy Justice would probably have to regress in order to fall short again. And since there’s no reason to think she won’t bring her A-game, we’re willing to single Tizzy Justice.

That’s a valuable choice from a monetary perspective. By singling both Louder Than Words and Tizzy Justice, we can reduce the number of Pick 5 possibilities from 89,180 to 910, which means we can spread deep in the middle three legs and have every chance to construct a winning ticket on a modest budget.

Good luck!