Keeler Johnson's picks and plays of June 28

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, June 28 at Delaware Park, Finger Lakes, and Horseshoe Indianapolis, including horses to single in the $2,881 Pick 6 carryover at Finger Lakes.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Hoosier Park $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any eligible race at Hoosier Park.

Picks and Plays

Delaware Park: Race 2: $50,000 Maiden Claiming (five furlongs, 1:00 p.m. ET)

#6 Copper Tax (7-5) was a bit unlucky not to win his debut over this track, distance, and class level on June 10. After tracking the early pace, he rallied to finish second by a neck, earning an 80 Brisnet Speed rating equal to the par winning number for these conditions.

Trainer Gary Capuano wins at a 25% rate with second-time starters, and jockey Jeiron Barbosa has gone 3-for-7 (43%) teaming up with Capuano over the last two months, so we’ll key Copper Tax on top of an exacta using #3 Silverbullettwenty (6-1) and #7 Mon Gateau (4-1) for second place.

Selections

• #6 Copper Tax (7-5)
• #3 Silverbullettwenty (6-1)
• #7 Mon Gateau (4-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 6 with 3,7 ($30)

Finger Lakes: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 3:45 p.m. ET)

After finishing fifth and fourth in his first two starts at Aqueduct, #8 Rhum Pressure (5-2) shipped to Finger Lakes last month and ran second in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight, beaten only 1 1/4 lengths while earning a flashy 81 Brisnet Speed rating. His form was flattered when third-place finisher Tiz Lucky returned to win his next start.

The par winning Brisnet Speed rating for Wednesday’s conditions is 78, so Rhum Pressure has already run fast enough to win a race like this. Jockey Jeremias Flores and trainer Paul Barrow have gone 3-for-6 (50%) teaming up together over the last two months, so let’s bet Rhum Pressure to win and key him over #5 Pentangeli (7-2) and #3 Central Station (6-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #8 Rhum Pressure (5-2)
• #5 Pentangeli (7-2)
• #3 Central Station (6-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #8 Rhum Pressure (5-2)
• $5 Exacta: 8 with 3,5 ($10)
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 4:03 p.m. ET)

Since 2020, trainer Brendan Walsh has compiled a solid 21-5-2-3 (24%) record saddling first-time starters at Horseshoe Indianapolis. This bodes well for #8 Western Avenue (6-1), an unraced son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah out of the Benchmark mare Randie’s Legend.

American Pharoah sires 14% winners on turf, and Randie’s Legend has already foaled two-time Grade 3 turf winner Daddy Is a Legend, so Western Avenue has the pedigree to shine on grass. Under hot jockey Declan Cannon (a 27% winner at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet and a 33% winner teaming up with Walsh over the last two months), Western Avenue is an appealing choice.

We’ll bet Western Avenue to win and toss in an exacta with #2 What a Blast (5-2) and #9 Coach Petro (7-2) for good measure.

Selections

• #8 Western Avenue (6-1)
• #2 What a Blast (5-2)
• #9 Coach Petro (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #8 Western Avenue
• $5 Exacta: 8 with 2,9 ($10)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Finger Lakes: Race 3: $2,881 Pick 6 carryover (2:18 p.m. ET)

Bettors who love to pursue non-jackpot Pick 6 carryovers will be happy to hear there’s a suitable prize pool on the table this Wednesday at Finger Lakes. The carryover for the $1 wager stands at $2,881.

Looking for singles to build tickets around? Our best recommendation is the above-mentioned #8 Rhum Pressure (5-2), who looms as a standout in Race 6. But one single might not be sufficient to play the Pick 6 on a modest budget. While the sequence isn’t overwhelming with 47 entries (averaging about 7.8 per race), that works out to 217,728 possible outcomes before scratches. Singling Rhum Pressure cuts the possibilities down to 24,192, but that’s still a hefty number.

That’s why we also suggest singling #6 Our Caravan (3-1) in Race 4, an $8,000 starter optional claimer taking place over one mile and 70 yards on dirt. This configuration isn’t particularly kind to speed horses, with pacesetters winning at only an 18% rate this meet, which is a blow to the chances of speedy favorite #3 Blood Moon (5-2).

In contrast, Our Caravan’s tendency to rally from third or fourth position suits this configuration to perfection. While it might seem risky to single a 12-year-old gelding in his first run of the season, Our Caravan has been on fire since reaching the double-digit age range, going 5-for-5 at age 10 and 2-for-3 at age 11.

Our Caravan wrapped up 2022 with a strong runner-up effort over this track, distance and class level, a contest in which he gained a lot of ground from farther back than usual to miss victory by only three-quarters of a length. He’d previously won a pair of $11,000 claimers running long at Finger Lakes, contributing to his stellar 37-21-5-6 lifetime record over this track.

Our Caravan won his debut way back in 2013 and has won six of his eight starts when returning from lengthy layoffs, so we know he fires fresh. The fact he’s trained by Michael Ferraro is also encouraging; Ferraro has gone 8-for-20 (40%) at Finger Lakes this meet and wins at a solid 19% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more.

Throw in hot jockey Andre Worrie (a 29% winner at Finger Lakes this meet), and Our Caravan is a compelling Pick 6 single.

Good luck!